ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4543
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:

Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#721 Postby toad strangler » Sun Aug 27, 2023 2:20 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:This board is actually shockingly quite in-active considering a hurricane could be two days away from Florida, at least compared to past storms that were within 2 to 3 days of landfall. With some past storms this thread would be over 75 pages by now.


For storms that took 11 days crossing the Atlantic perhaps. These threads have been very active. This thread is only 2 days old.
Last edited by toad strangler on Sun Aug 27, 2023 2:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
6 likes   

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4543
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:

Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#722 Postby toad strangler » Sun Aug 27, 2023 2:21 pm

SFLcane wrote:Looks like a sheared mess this afternoon.


That’s because it is a sheared mess! And will have issues with shear at least through tomorrow.
1 likes   

User avatar
johngaltfla
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2069
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:17 pm
Location: Sarasota County, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#723 Postby johngaltfla » Sun Aug 27, 2023 2:23 pm

toad strangler wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Looks like a sheared mess this afternoon.


That’s because it is a sheared mess! And will have issues with shear at least through tomorrow.


It might be sheared now, but tomorrow night, IMHO, all bets are off. We've all seen how fast a storm can organize and intensify once it passes the Northwest tip of Cuba.
2 likes   

User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5194
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#724 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Aug 27, 2023 2:25 pm

toad strangler wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Looks like a sheared mess this afternoon.


That’s because it is a sheared mess! And will have issues with shear at least through tomorrow.


So that means that we probably won't see much strengthening until Tuesday(the day before landfall) then right? because of the shear?
0 likes   

hohnywx
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 508
Age: 34
Joined: Sun Jul 19, 2009 8:34 pm
Location: Hastings-on-Hudson, NY

Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#725 Postby hohnywx » Sun Aug 27, 2023 2:28 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Looks like a sheared mess this afternoon.


That’s because it is a sheared mess! And will have issues with shear at least through tomorrow.


So that means that we probably won't see much strengthening until Tuesday(the day before landfall) then right? because of the shear?


The forecast is available in the NHC discussion

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 19.9N 85.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 19.7N 85.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 20.6N 85.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 21.9N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 24.0N 85.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 26.2N 85.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 28.9N 84.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 31/1200Z 33.0N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/1200Z 34.5N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
1 likes   

User avatar
Zonacane
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 361
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2021 2:23 pm

Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#726 Postby Zonacane » Sun Aug 27, 2023 2:30 pm

toad strangler wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Looks like a sheared mess this afternoon.


That’s because it is a sheared mess! And will have issues with shear at least through tomorrow.

It did get displaced from the ULAC yes. However, it won't look like that for long
0 likes   

User avatar
Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4097
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#727 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Aug 27, 2023 2:35 pm

Tbh, I think I've learned my lessons from Ian, Ida, Laura, and Michael to know better than saying "sheared now = sheared forever", especially with peak season Gulf hurricanes :lol:
10 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Do not think you can beat Mother Nature. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm.

User avatar
AnnularCane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2862
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
Location: Wytheville, VA

Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#728 Postby AnnularCane » Sun Aug 27, 2023 2:37 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:Tbh, I think I've learned my lessons from Ian, Ida, Laura, and Michael to know better than saying "sheared now = sheared forever", especially with peak season Gulf hurricanes :lol:



And Andrew. He may be the poster child for that one. :wink:
3 likes   
"But it never rained rain. It never snowed snow. And it never blew just wind. It rained things like soup and juice. It snowed mashed potatoes and green peas. And sometimes the wind blew in storms of hamburgers." -- Judi Barrett, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4543
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:

Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#729 Postby toad strangler » Sun Aug 27, 2023 2:37 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:Tbh, I think I've learned my lessons from Ian, Ida, Laura, and Michael to know better than saying "sheared now = sheared forever", especially with peak season Gulf hurricanes :lol:


Nobody that i can tell is saying sheared forever. Pro or amateur .
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145343
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#730 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 27, 2023 2:41 pm

Large area of plenty of rain for most of Florida and the SE U.S.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
robbielyn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1298
Joined: Wed May 07, 2003 9:45 am
Location: brooksville, fl

Re: RE: Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#731 Postby robbielyn » Sun Aug 27, 2023 2:42 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:This board is actually shockingly quite in-active considering a hurricane could be two days away from Florida, at least compared to past storms that were within 2 to 3 days of landfall. With some past storms this thread would be over 75 pages by now.
You need sofla or houston area for major activity but have no fear, it will get active when its better organized and on the move, its neither right now


I also think we r at a wait and see here in tampabay area. We r aware, we may get some water gas up, but until we know where it’s going, we hv a ok that’s what they said last year attitude and until sw fl or pc is out of the picture, we aren’t 100% sure it’s really coming here. I am 98% prepared but leaving the 2% until I see what Idalia is going to do. By tomorrow i’ll know and finish it before tuesday.
3 likes   
Robbielyn McCrary
I know just about enough to sound like I know what I'm talking about sometimes. But for your safety please follow the nhc for truly professional forecasting. :D

User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5194
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#732 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Aug 27, 2023 2:44 pm

hohnywx wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
That’s because it is a sheared mess! And will have issues with shear at least through tomorrow.


So that means that we probably won't see much strengthening until Tuesday(the day before landfall) then right? because of the shear?


The forecast is available in the NHC discussion

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 19.9N 85.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 19.7N 85.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 20.6N 85.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 21.9N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 24.0N 85.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 26.2N 85.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 28.9N 84.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 31/1200Z 33.0N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/1200Z 34.5N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER



I think those short-term windspeed numbers COULD be too high initially due to the shear that it's encountering. Perhaps the shear is higher than expected. I still think it will make it to hurricane strength as forecasted, but may take longer than expected to do so. The next 24 hours will be crucial to see if it can hold it's strength....We will see what their next discussion says.
0 likes   

User avatar
johngaltfla
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2069
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:17 pm
Location: Sarasota County, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#733 Postby johngaltfla » Sun Aug 27, 2023 2:46 pm

cycloneye wrote:Large area of plenty of rain for most of Florida and the SE U.S.

https://i.imgur.com/7Lm3XOJ.png


We need it badly Cycloneye. We're way down for the year so a good 4-6" would be helpful. Storm surge, tornadoes, wind damage, and flash flooding, not so much.
2 likes   

Steve H.
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2146
Joined: Sat Oct 19, 2002 9:06 am
Location: Palm Bay, Florida

Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#734 Postby Steve H. » Sun Aug 27, 2023 2:46 pm

There is a fair amount of shear to her nw as well. That is supposed to abate over the next day or so. So I still see an opportunity for her to have a window of RI.
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145343
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#735 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 27, 2023 2:49 pm

@AndyHazelton
·
7m
12z already had some from the first half of our mission. 18z should have a bit more. And 2nd cycle after that data gets in as well. So that 18z cycle might be one to really watch for trends, especially structure.
4 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

caneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1447
Joined: Fri Sep 05, 2014 5:44 am
Location: Clearwater Beach, Fl

Re: RE: Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#736 Postby caneman » Sun Aug 27, 2023 2:50 pm

robbielyn wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:This board is actually shockingly quite in-active considering a hurricane could be two days away from Florida, at least compared to past storms that were within 2 to 3 days of landfall. With some past storms this thread would be over 75 pages by now.
You need sofla or houston area for major activity but have no fear, it will get active when its better organized and on the move, its neither right now


I also think we r at a wait and see here in tampabay area. We r aware, we may get some water gas up, but until we know where it’s going, we hv a ok that’s what they said last year attitude and until sw fl or pc is out of the picture, we aren’t 100% sure it’s really coming here. I am 98% prepared but leaving the 2% until I see what Idalia is going to do. By tomorrow i’ll know and finish it before tuesday.


Many are in a wait and see mode here On the beaches of Pinellas. We've dealt with many high end t.s. and wind gusts Cat. 1 storms. We've had too many major close calls to panic. That could possibly lead to complacency and certainly many have got burnt out. It will ramp up though as we get closer and if more than a Cat. 1
0 likes   

User avatar
Jr0d
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1409
Joined: Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:52 am
Location: Cayo Hueso

Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#737 Postby Jr0d » Sun Aug 27, 2023 2:52 pm

AnnularCane wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:Tbh, I think I've learned my lessons from Ian, Ida, Laura, and Michael to know better than saying "sheared now = sheared forever", especially with peak season Gulf hurricanes :lol:



And Andrew. He may be the poster child for that one. :wink:


I remember one of the Florida newscaster called Andrew 'ragged Andy' when it was fighting shear.

No two storms are the same, knowing how much oceanic heat is available to Idalia is concerning as is the improving atmospheric condition as land fall approaches.

Still think the track will need adjustments, but extremely doubtful it will miss Florida to the west, Alabama, Mississippi are likely out of the track. Unfortunately it seems there is no way.it will miss Florida as a hurricane.
1 likes   

Ian2401
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 307
Joined: Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:55 pm
Location: Tallahassee, Florida
Contact:

Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#738 Postby Ian2401 » Sun Aug 27, 2023 2:56 pm

Something interesting I just noticed. 15z advisory from NHC said that 12hrs from then (11pm edt), Idalia would actually lose 0.3 deg of latitude, going down to 19.7N. However per the NHC (and viewing visible imagery) the center is parked at 20.0N and moving N at 2mph. Curious to see if / how this affects anything.

or maybe I just really need to stop wobble watching lol
0 likes   
B.S. Meteorology from Florida State '24 // Current M.S. Meteorology student at Florida State

Research Interests: Rapid Intensification, TC Climatology, TC Modeling

Consult the NHC for official information

User avatar
ScottNAtlanta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2367
Joined: Sat May 25, 2013 3:11 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#739 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sun Aug 27, 2023 2:59 pm

It doesn't look nearly as bad as it did a couple hours ago. Has some convection firing over the center
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

StormPyrate
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 279
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:41 pm
Location: Clearwater, FL

Re: RE: Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#740 Postby StormPyrate » Sun Aug 27, 2023 2:59 pm

caneman wrote:
robbielyn wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:You need sofla or houston area for major activity but have no fear, it will get active when its better organized and on the move, its neither right now


I also think we r at a wait and see here in tampabay area. We r aware, we may get some water gas up, but until we know where it’s going, we hv a ok that’s what they said last year attitude and until sw fl or pc is out of the picture, we aren’t 100% sure it’s really coming here. I am 98% prepared but leaving the 2% until I see what Idalia is going to do. By tomorrow i’ll know and finish it before tuesday.


Many are in a wait and see mode here On the beaches of Pinellas. We've dealt with many high end t.s. and wind gusts Cat. 1 storms. We've had too many major close calls to panic. That could possibly lead to complacency and certainly many have got burnt out. It will ramp up though as we get closer and if more than a Cat. 1


Sams Clube on gulf to bay was crazy this morning with people stocking up
0 likes   
St Petersburg Florida


Return to “2023”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests