ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[toad strangler]

This board is actually shockingly quite in-active considering a hurricane could be two days away from Florida, at least compared to past storms that were within 2 to 3 days of landfall. With some past storms this thread would be over 75 pages by now.

For storms that took 11 days crossing the Atlantic perhaps. These threads have been very active. This thread is only 2 days old.

[toad strangler]

Looks like a sheared mess this afternoon.

That’s because it is a sheared mess! And will have issues with shear at least through tomorrow.

[johngaltfla]

Looks like a sheared mess this afternoon.

That’s because it is a sheared mess! And will have issues with shear at least through tomorrow.

It might be sheared now, but tomorrow night, IMHO, all bets are off. We've all seen how fast a storm can organize and intensify once it passes the Northwest tip of Cuba.

[ConvergenceZone]

Looks like a sheared mess this afternoon.

That’s because it is a sheared mess! And will have issues with shear at least through tomorrow.

So that means that we probably won't see much strengthening until Tuesday(the day before landfall) then right? because of the shear?

[hohnywx]

Looks like a sheared mess this afternoon.

That’s because it is a sheared mess! And will have issues with shear at least through tomorrow.

So that means that we probably won't see much strengthening until Tuesday(the day before landfall) then right? because of the shear?

The forecast is available in the NHC discussion

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 19.9N 85.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 19.7N 85.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 20.6N 85.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 21.9N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 24.0N 85.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 26.2N 85.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 28.9N 84.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 31/1200Z 33.0N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/1200Z 34.5N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER

[Zonacane]

Looks like a sheared mess this afternoon.

That’s because it is a sheared mess! And will have issues with shear at least through tomorrow.

It did get displaced from the ULAC yes. However, it won't look like that for long

[Category5Kaiju]

Tbh, I think I've learned my lessons from Ian, Ida, Laura, and Michael to know better than saying "sheared now = sheared forever", especially with peak season Gulf hurricanes

[AnnularCane]

Tbh, I think I've learned my lessons from Ian, Ida, Laura, and Michael to know better than saying "sheared now = sheared forever", especially with peak season Gulf hurricanes

And Andrew. He may be the poster child for that one.

[toad strangler]

Tbh, I think I've learned my lessons from Ian, Ida, Laura, and Michael to know better than saying "sheared now = sheared forever", especially with peak season Gulf hurricanes

Nobody that i can tell is saying sheared forever. Pro or amateur .

[cycloneye]

Large area of plenty of rain for most of Florida and the SE U.S.

[robbielyn]

This board is actually shockingly quite in-active considering a hurricane could be two days away from Florida, at least compared to past storms that were within 2 to 3 days of landfall. With some past storms this thread would be over 75 pages by now.

You need sofla or houston area for major activity but have no fear, it will get active when its better organized and on the move, its neither right now

I also think we r at a wait and see here in tampabay area. We r aware, we may get some water gas up, but until we know where it’s going, we hv a ok that’s what they said last year attitude and until sw fl or pc is out of the picture, we aren’t 100% sure it’s really coming here. I am 98% prepared but leaving the 2% until I see what Idalia is going to do. By tomorrow i’ll know and finish it before tuesday.

[ConvergenceZone]

That’s because it is a sheared mess! And will have issues with shear at least through tomorrow.

So that means that we probably won't see much strengthening until Tuesday(the day before landfall) then right? because of the shear?

The forecast is available in the NHC discussion

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 19.9N 85.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 19.7N 85.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 20.6N 85.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 21.9N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 24.0N 85.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 26.2N 85.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 28.9N 84.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 31/1200Z 33.0N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/1200Z 34.5N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER

I think those short-term windspeed numbers COULD be too high initially due to the shear that it's encountering. Perhaps the shear is higher than expected. I still think it will make it to hurricane strength as forecasted, but may take longer than expected to do so. The next 24 hours will be crucial to see if it can hold it's strength....We will see what their next discussion says.

[johngaltfla]

Large area of plenty of rain for most of Florida and the SE U.S.

https://i.imgur.com/7Lm3XOJ.png

We need it badly Cycloneye. We're way down for the year so a good 4-6" would be helpful. Storm surge, tornadoes, wind damage, and flash flooding, not so much.

[Steve H.]

There is a fair amount of shear to her nw as well. That is supposed to abate over the next day or so. So I still see an opportunity for her to have a window of RI.

[cycloneye]

@AndyHazelton
·
7m
12z already had some from the first half of our mission. 18z should have a bit more. And 2nd cycle after that data gets in as well. So that 18z cycle might be one to really watch for trends, especially structure.

[caneman]

This board is actually shockingly quite in-active considering a hurricane could be two days away from Florida, at least compared to past storms that were within 2 to 3 days of landfall. With some past storms this thread would be over 75 pages by now.

You need sofla or houston area for major activity but have no fear, it will get active when its better organized and on the move, its neither right now

I also think we r at a wait and see here in tampabay area. We r aware, we may get some water gas up, but until we know where it’s going, we hv a ok that’s what they said last year attitude and until sw fl or pc is out of the picture, we aren’t 100% sure it’s really coming here. I am 98% prepared but leaving the 2% until I see what Idalia is going to do. By tomorrow i’ll know and finish it before tuesday.

Many are in a wait and see mode here On the beaches of Pinellas. We've dealt with many high end t.s. and wind gusts Cat. 1 storms. We've had too many major close calls to panic. That could possibly lead to complacency and certainly many have got burnt out. It will ramp up though as we get closer and if more than a Cat. 1

[Jr0d]

Tbh, I think I've learned my lessons from Ian, Ida, Laura, and Michael to know better than saying "sheared now = sheared forever", especially with peak season Gulf hurricanes

And Andrew. He may be the poster child for that one.

I remember one of the Florida newscaster called Andrew 'ragged Andy' when it was fighting shear.

No two storms are the same, knowing how much oceanic heat is available to Idalia is concerning as is the improving atmospheric condition as land fall approaches.

Still think the track will need adjustments, but extremely doubtful it will miss Florida to the west, Alabama, Mississippi are likely out of the track. Unfortunately it seems there is no way.it will miss Florida as a hurricane.

[Ian2401]

Something interesting I just noticed. 15z advisory from NHC said that 12hrs from then (11pm edt), Idalia would actually lose 0.3 deg of latitude, going down to 19.7N. However per the NHC (and viewing visible imagery) the center is parked at 20.0N and moving N at 2mph. Curious to see if / how this affects anything.

or maybe I just really need to stop wobble watching lol

[ScottNAtlanta]

It doesn't look nearly as bad as it did a couple hours ago. Has some convection firing over the center

[StormPyrate]

You need sofla or houston area for major activity but have no fear, it will get active when its better organized and on the move, its neither right now

I also think we r at a wait and see here in tampabay area. We r aware, we may get some water gas up, but until we know where it’s going, we hv a ok that’s what they said last year attitude and until sw fl or pc is out of the picture, we aren’t 100% sure it’s really coming here. I am 98% prepared but leaving the 2% until I see what Idalia is going to do. By tomorrow i’ll know and finish it before tuesday.

Many are in a wait and see mode here On the beaches of Pinellas. We've dealt with many high end t.s. and wind gusts Cat. 1 storms. We've had too many major close calls to panic. That could possibly lead to complacency and certainly many have got burnt out. It will ramp up though as we get closer and if more than a Cat. 1

Sams Clube on gulf to bay was crazy this morning with people stocking up