ATL: IDALIA - Models

[SFLcane]

As far south as Fort Myers now. Huge spread

[norva13x]

I don’t believe that has the latest Euro run yet as it hasn’t finished running?

The Euro is still very close to the blend. Big bend

.

Agreed. I think the time has come that any big shifts in the official forecast are over. Minor tweaks right or left from this point forward are likely all we’ll see, in just my humble non met opinion of course.

Also speaking as a non met, but I do think the 18z model has potential for a shift but after that I agree it'll be fairly locked in. In my experience the three day come is usually pretty accurate, the the 2 and 1 day forecasts very much so (at least concerning track). Intensity is still a bit of a toss up.

[Ianswfl]

As far south as Fort Myers now. Huge spread


https://i.postimg.cc/sgs01N4V/IMG-7519.jpg

More tight than 06z but more east weighted too

[robbielyn]

The Euro is still very close to the blend. Big bend

.

Agreed. I think the time has come that any big shifts in the official forecast are over. Minor tweaks right or left from this point forward are likely all we’ll see, in just my humble non met opinion of course.

Also speaking as a non met, but I do think the 18z model has potential for a shift but after that I agree it'll be fairly locked in. In my experience the three day come is usually pretty accurate, the the 2 and 1 day forecasts very much so (at least concerning track). Intensity is still a bit of a toss up.

It wasn’t accurate in the 3 day cone with Ian.

[norva13x]

.

Agreed. I think the time has come that any big shifts in the official forecast are over. Minor tweaks right or left from this point forward are likely all we’ll see, in just my humble non met opinion of course.

Also speaking as a non met, but I do think the 18z model has potential for a shift but after that I agree it'll be fairly locked in. In my experience the three day come is usually pretty accurate, the the 2 and 1 day forecasts very much so (at least concerning track). Intensity is still a bit of a toss up.

It wasn’t accurate in the 3 day cone with Ian.

That's very true, I suppose only time will tell. My hope at least is that it doesn't blow up before hitting, fingers crossed.

[jfk08c]

Ians projected track three days from landfall and 24 hours later. Obviously not the exact situation as it is coming from the west but its just a reminder that these types of things are fluid. Just because models are latching onto an idea doesn't mean it will 100% verify. Always be prepared if you are anywhere near the cone.

[tolakram]

Be careful not to fight the last battle. It's really easy to expect a storm to do what the last one did and get burned. It's fun an interesting, but expect to be surprised.

[underthwx]

Be careful not to fight the last battle. It's really easy to expect a storm to do what the last one did and get burned. It's fun an interesting, but expect to be surprised.

https://i.imgur.com/VAawrxi.png

True that...Idalia looks to be an equal opportunity impacts/ rainmaker for a large area of the Florida peninsula, as well as points Northward unfortunately....

[syfr]

Ians projected track three days from landfall and 24 hours later. Obviously not the exact situation as it is coming from the west but its just a reminder that these types of things are fluid. Just because models are latching onto an idea doesn't mean it will 100% verify. Always be prepared if you are anywhere near the cone.

Absolutely true, but a careful look at the two tracks in the Tampa area only show what, about a 30 mile longitudinal shift? Even 3 days out the track was darned good.

[sponger]

12z vs 06z:

https://i.ibb.co/PD3mrHc/ef52.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/wKKjsdB/ef46.jpg

Pretty significant shift for Tampa and Jacksonville.

[BobHarlem]

18z Icon, just a tad to the right

[IcyTundra]

18Z GFS now running

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS now running

Already east of the 12Z at 6 hours.

[Ianswfl]

18z Icon, just a tad to the right

https://i.imgur.com/PXO5zDg.png

Models coming together nicely. I'd go with Hernando County for landfall. Depending on the size though entire SWFL coast on up could have 80-90mph gusts.

[tolakram]

18Z started

[tolakram]

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS getting close to the Western tip of Cuba

[skillz305]

18z GFS at 18 hour wowwww

[tolakram]

[gatorcane]

https://i.imgur.com/ser0ev9.png

Again a notable shift to the east by the GFS even at this short-range.