ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chaser1]

Wow That IR pic really puts an exclamation point on it

[tolakram]

Longer timelapse from a regional view, rather than the floater.



source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Cozumel-sandwich-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Idalia has been sitting in that part of the Caribbean for a slight bit now and I haven’t heard much about upwelling. Is this part of the Caribbean THAT deep with warm water?

[Teban54]

Definitely has a CDO going now... you can tell shear is still impinging it though, somewhat squashed on northern quadrants.

Yep, agreed. The cold cloud tops are impressive, but they aren’t rotating much - more just spreading out in all directions, and impeded in the north side. I’m more confident now that we are seeing a ccc pattern. Recon may still find a hurricane, or a ts that’s close to hurricane, but I wouldn’t expect much more strengthening than that until until the whole canopy starts rotating

No offense, but I feel the term CCC is now being thrown around way too often, just like the word annular.

[IcyTundra]

Idalia has been sitting in that part of the Caribbean for a slight bit now and I haven’t heard much about upwelling. Is this part of the Caribbean THAT deep with warm water?

Yes very deep

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Idalia has been sitting in that part of the Caribbean for a slight bit now and I haven’t heard much about upwelling. Is this part of the Caribbean THAT deep with warm water?

Yes very deep

Oof. Sounds like West Florida is about to be in deeeep sugar honey iced tea.

[emeraldislenc]

Deep honey ice tea??

[chaser1]

Idalia has been sitting in that part of the Caribbean for a slight bit now and I haven’t heard much about upwelling. Is this part of the Caribbean THAT deep with warm water?

Yes very deep

And, essentially a large current or body of water essentially fed from the equally very warm W. Caribbean. Basically, its tapping water SST's that is continually flowing into that area as opposed to a body of water more isolated from any infusion of water.

[NDG]

Idalia has been sitting in that part of the Caribbean for a slight bit now and I haven’t heard much about upwelling. Is this part of the Caribbean THAT deep with warm water?

Yes very deep

Indeed, no upwelling at all, buoy still reporting near 30C SSTs despite 60 mph wind gusts at times and 11.5 foot waves.

[tolakram]

SLIDER GeoProxy (Nighttime Visible): https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=4850&y=6850&z=3&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&p%5B0%5D=cira_geoproxy&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[cheezyWXguy]

Definitely has a CDO going now... you can tell shear is still impinging it though, somewhat squashed on northern quadrants.

Yep, agreed. The cold cloud tops are impressive, but they aren’t rotating much - more just spreading out in all directions, and impeded in the north side. I’m more confident now that we are seeing a ccc pattern. Recon may still find a hurricane, or a ts that’s close to hurricane, but I wouldn’t expect much more strengthening than that until until the whole canopy starts rotating

No offense, but I feel the term CCC is now being thrown around way too often, just like the word annular.

That’s fair, and that’s the main reason I didn’t want to say it with any real confidence earlier. That said, the definition is an intense convective burst that spreads out in all directions from the center. It doesn’t generally appear to rotate and is often driven by shear. Virtually all of that applies to what we’re seeing now.

[tolakram]

Looks like some banding is starting to form.

[chaser1]

Yep, agreed. The cold cloud tops are impressive, but they aren’t rotating much - more just spreading out in all directions, and impeded in the north side. I’m more confident now that we are seeing a ccc pattern. Recon may still find a hurricane, or a ts that’s close to hurricane, but I wouldn’t expect much more strengthening than that until until the whole canopy starts rotating

No offense, but I feel the term CCC is now being thrown around way too often, just like the word annular.

That’s fair, and that’s the main reason I didn’t want to say it with any real confidence earlier. That said, the definition is an intense convective burst that spreads out in all directions from the center. It doesn’t generally appear to rotate and is often driven by shear. Virtually all of that applies to what we’re seeing now.

(well, all EXCEPT the convection being driven by shear part LOL; That would probably appear more linear in appearance with the LLC typically exposed or displaced from the convection)

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Deep honey ice tea??

Sugar Honey Iced Tea. Didn’t know if cursing was allowed on here, so I just used a backronym.

[Zonacane]

Somebody help me find this supposed shear.

[Jr0d]

Definitely has a CDO going now... you can tell shear is still impinging it though, somewhat squashed on northern quadrants.

...and dry air to the north of it also.

Regardless this is quite a blow up and I am staying up for the recon data.

[chaser1]

Deep honey ice tea??

Sugar Honey Iced Tea. Didn’t know if cursing was allowed on here, so I just used a backronym.

I hate when (S)ugar (H)oney (I)ced (T)ea hits the fan. Just one unholy mess

[chaser1]

Earlier in the day Eric Webb alluded to the possibility of Idalia potentially expanding due to the relative slow methodical pressure fall as opposed to significantly greater/faster pressure falls like we have witnessed late this evening. I still believe that this storm will have a very compact inner core with maximum winds not really extending all too far from the center. Of course, that does not suggest that dangerous TS force winds will not notably expand outward and especially to the north and east of center.

[tropicwatch]

Recon over the channel and descending.

[cheezyWXguy]

No offense, but I feel the term CCC is now being thrown around way too often, just like the word annular.

That’s fair, and that’s the main reason I didn’t want to say it with any real confidence earlier. That said, the definition is an intense convective burst that spreads out in all directions from the center. It doesn’t generally appear to rotate and is often driven by shear. Virtually all of that applies to what we’re seeing now.

(well, all EXCEPT the convection being driven by shear part LOL; That would probably appear more linear in appearance with the LLC typically exposed or displaced from the convection)

Not necessarily. Mid level shear that undercuts the canopy to reach the core would be sufficient to induce the pattern. And there is shear from the north currently impacting it, just not strong enough to altogether blow the convection away, or even enough to keep it from modestly strengthening.