ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chris_fit]

Anyone know when the next recon arrives into the storm?

[Poonwalker]

Reminds me of the approach tropical storm ETA took I believe in 2020. Tampa bay had a surprising amount of surge and St Pete beach areas had water on roads and some getting into parking lots and restaurants on the water. This will obviously be worse, but that one took people by surprise.

[MississippiWx]

Idalia is beginning to get a structure that is more conducive to strengthening. Convection appears to be wrapping around now. Don't be surprised if it begins to strengthen in earnest later tonight.

[eastcoastFL]

I'm feeling pretty optimistic here in the bay area with the core expected to remain offshore and some wiggle room. as always tempering that with past tendencies of storms to shift right of track as they head north. that's bailed us out before but would work against us this time. a little dicey. im not seeing any evidence of panic shopping here as has happened well in advance of past (ultimately false alarms) like Dorian.

Dorian is also a good example of how nothing track wise is ever set in stone. The NHC had a bullseye on my house with Dorian, I mean Jim Cantore was setting up shop at the end of my road lol. We flew to Denver, in hindsight for nothing but who knew?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Idalia's looks better organized.

If not a hurricane, very close to being one.

[eastcoastFL]

It looks like an eye might be trying to clear out.

[psyclone]

Reminds me of the approach tropical storm ETA took I believe in 2020. Tampa bay had a surprising amount of surge and St Pete beach areas had water on roads and some getting into parking lots and restaurants on the water. This will obviously be worse, but that one took people by surprise.

You bring up a great point. Even if the core remains well offshore this is a big system with a large windfield on its eastern flank. that is going to shove a crap ton of water at the coast and it will be topped by large battering waves at the beaches. the water danger here is substantial even in a best case scenario...this region is so surge prone. my relative optimism is based upon my safe elevation. this is a water storm with an ocean in motion...when that motion hits the corner of a bathtub...like the northeast corner of the gulf...bad things happen. I definitely think surge is the biggest danger with this system. the size and destination are trouble.

[NAVAIDNICK]

Probably going to wait for 5pm

I understand the local officials hesitancy to pull the trigger on evacuations. They will get flack no matter what decision they make. If they order an evacuation that is not needed, people will be more complacent next time and they will get chewed out or even fired for their decisions. With that said, personally I find it better to err on the side of caution every time. Evacuations are a life and death matter in a surge zone. I’d rather see people mad and alive at the end of the storm.

I personally plan to evacuate here in Tallahassee since I live in a heavily treed area with a high risk of a tree falling on my rental. The NWS is saying the risk of Cat 1 or Cat 2 winds is increasing here. Would not be surprised to be under a hurricane warning here come 5 pm. I’d rather be out a few hundred dollars for hotels and gas than risk my family’s safety. Some risks are just not worth it.

Pinellas just ordered zone A evacuation.

Manatee County just issued mandatory evacuations for Zones A and B.

[Ianswfl]

Reminds me of the approach tropical storm ETA took I believe in 2020. Tampa bay had a surprising amount of surge and St Pete beach areas had water on roads and some getting into parking lots and restaurants on the water. This will obviously be worse, but that one took people by surprise.

You bring up a great point. Even if the core remains well offshore this is a big system with a large windfield on its eastern flank. that is going to shove a crap ton of water at the coast and it will be topped by large battering waves at the beaches. the water danger here is substantial even in a best case scenario...this region is so surge prone. my relative optimism is based upon my safe elevation. this is a water storm with an ocean in motion...when that motion hits the corner of a bathtub...like the northeast corner of the gulf...bad things happen. I definitely think surge is the biggest danger with this system. the size and destination are trouble.

I wonder how this will affect water temps in the eastern gulf? Getting the time of year they cool a bit! However, the GFS for sept has record temps for half the country and hot weather for FL. Could get back above normal just in time for October.

[cainjamin]

Definitely starting to see more convective bursting on the northern side of the circulation. I think it's almost guaranteed to be a hurricane by the time recon arrives if it isn't already.

[Iceresistance]

Anyone know when the next recon arrives into the storm?

NOAA departs at 4 PM (EDT?)

[Airboy]

I would not be suprised it this one becomes a major hurricane a bit earlier than forcasted.

[CrazyC83]

I would not be suprised it this one becomes a major hurricane a bit earlier than forcasted.

I also fear that a high-end hurricane, such as a category 4, is not out of the realm of possibility.

[Kingarabian]

LLC is slowly tucking in towards the middle of the CDO. Its been on the leading NW edge for the past 10 hours. That is a sign shear is letting up and intensification should become easier.

[zzzh]

Radar indicates the convection is struggling to wrap upshear.

[eastcoastFL]

[REDHurricane]

LLC is slowly tucking in towards the middle of the CDO. Its been on the leading NW edge for the past 10 hours. That is a sign shear is letting up and intensification should become easier.

Yeah, looks like the upper level ridge has shifted back to the east a bit and thus the shear that's been keeping Idalia in check the past ~2 days has decreased

[Chemmers]

Hwrf has it coming in a 931 mb

Hopefully won't be this low at landfall

Stay safe everyone

[chris_fit]

Assuming the same steering flow that is moving all these showers/storms from S to N will apply the Idalia? I see no easterly component in anything.

[dukeblue219]

Assuming the same steering flow that is moving all these showers/storms from S to N will apply the Idalia? I see no easterly component in anything.

https://i.imgur.com/D1rvARW.gif

There are a couple of troughs involved. One is supposed to pull Idalia north imminently, the second will help pull it Eastward eventually. The current weather map really doesn't tell the story of 2-3 days from now. Look at the NHC discussions or some of the global model runs to see how the steering will evolve.