ATL: IDALIA - Models

[Blown Away]

Looks like the EPS has shifted to the east a bit with the stronger members on the east side landfalling around Cedar Key:

https://i.postimg.cc/bJSRtMpr/IMG-0891.png

There's no need to bring this kind of negativity here.... We were doing swell with the west shifts.

Can you post the zoomed in view with the mean track?

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/Sausius_wx/status/1696254428922143045

[gatorcane]

There's no need to bring this kind of negativity here.... We were doing swell with the west shifts.

Can you post the zoomed in view with the mean track?

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/y8Fd2Zht/65-FA6-E75-D062-4619-8-C0-F-6558-E49-CC182.jpg [/url]

Tampa area will get some rough weather with those eastern tracks.

[caneman]

Can you post the zoomed in view with the mean track?

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/y8Fd2Zht/65-FA6-E75-D062-4619-8-C0-F-6558-E49-CC182.jpg [/url]

Tampa area will get some rough weather with those eastern tracks.

For sure. I hope they would keep us in the cone based on this. Do they give a lot of weight to the ensembles?

[Ianswfl]

The ensembles suggesting this pulls an Ivan and heads back west! One european ensemble has a hurricane Idalia coming back around and heading for the Bahamas!

[Blown Away]

18z ICON… Decent W shift at landfall.

[tolakram]

ICON trend

[Nimbus]

Can you post the zoomed in view with the mean track?

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/y8Fd2Zht/65-FA6-E75-D062-4619-8-C0-F-6558-E49-CC182.jpg [/url]

Tampa area will get some rough weather with those eastern tracks.

The official track from tonights 5 PM NHC discussion has thec enter only a couple degrees west of St Petersburg.
36H 30/0600Z 27.6N 84.4W 105 KT 120 MPH

Every storm is different but northeastern quadrant of a major hurricane often has tropical storm winds that take out power some distance from the center.

But that is just the Tampa bay area, much more concerned about Tallahassee and Jacksonville and the cities impacted further north. Prep day tomorrow for them, generator and shutter decisions for the high and dry and evacuations for anyone close to water.

[NDG]

Wow, 18z GFS shows not much strengthening over the next 24 hrs.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[PavelGaborik10]

Wow, 18z GFS shows not much strengthening over the next 24 hrs.

It also takes roughly 30+ hours to get down to where it already is pressure wise.

Wouldn't take the intensity forecast here too seriously

[tolakram]

[IcyTundra]

GFS had a bad initialization with the pressure being too high.

[NDG]

Wow, 18z GFS shows not much strengthening over the next 24 hrs.

It also takes roughly 24 hours to get down to where it already is pressure wise.

Wouldn't take the intensity forecast here too seriously

I wouldn't ignore it that much, there's definitely dry NNW shear still affecting Idalia this evening and it could very well still affect it longer than expected, latest GFS thinks so. Not that it will not have a chance to strengthen rapidly once the shear vector changes. Great example is Franklin, went from barely a Cat 1 to a major hurricane really fast.

[PavelGaborik10]

Wow, 18z GFS shows not much strengthening over the next 24 hrs.

It also takes roughly 24 hours to get down to where it already is pressure wise.

Wouldn't take the intensity forecast here too seriously

I wouldn't ignore it that much, there's definitely dry NNW shear still affecting Idalia this evening and it could very well still affect it longer than expected, latest GFS thinks so. Not that it will not have a chance to strengthen rapidly once the shear vector changes. Great example is Franklin, went from barely a Cat 1 to a major hurricane really fast.

Not ignoring it, merely taking it with a grain of salt. It's already well, well ahead of the poor initialization from the 18z.

The overwhelming vast majority of models have her taking off by tomorrow late afternoon, let's see what happens.

[canes92]

If those models verify, it will be the first major hurricane for that region in the last 123+ years.

[ronjon]

Watch out Tallahassee if 18z GFS verifies.

[IcyTundra]

Well recon is finding the pressure to be 986 MB. 8 MB stronger than the 18Z GFS has it at 8PM EST

[HurricaneBelle]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/y8Fd2Zht/65-FA6-E75-D062-4619-8-C0-F-6558-E49-CC182.jpg [/url]

Tampa area will get some rough weather with those eastern tracks.

For sure. I hope they would keep us in the cone based on this. Do they give a lot of weight to the ensembles?

The cone is automatic, based on historic track error. They'd have to shift the track east to "keep" Tampa Bay in it. It has nothing to do per se with impacts. We're under a Hurricane Warning, that's what matters.

To put it another way, the cone gets smaller over the years because track forecasting has improved. Do the hurricanes get smaller? No. That's why you really shouldn't put much stock in the cone.