ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SunnyThoughts]

That's gotta be one of the craziest satellite pics I've ever seen. And I'm old.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The hurricane models seem to be doing a really good job on Idalia. This is exactly where they said it would be...maybe a couple of mb too high, but all in all so far so good.

[eastcoastFL]

Idalia and Franklin look pretty neat when viewing them on this global surface wind map.


https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 834,21.944

[JaxGator]

I mean, I'm no met, but this doesn't look great..... right over the center as well.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/112d93f4e1f2365fbf9c262161501332cd31758e9f82dd792300b1392f948fd6.gif

Oh my, it looks like a power keg just went off.

[zzzh]

Well.

[eastcoastFL]

That blast of convection just now is not something I’ve seen before, wow.

[wx98]

Worth noting that the strip of Cuba it's currently over is practically nothing, land-wise. Similar to crossing Plaquemines Parish...

[FLLurker32]

The hurricane models seem to be doing a really good job on Idalia. This is exactly where they said it would be...maybe a couple of mb too high, but all in all so far so good.

I just went back to look at HWRF, HMON, HFAS A, HFAS B and GFS. All were to the west of Cuba. It’s a bit like splitting hairs but could make an impact as it travels N and NNE.

[chaser1]

Recon is right under that huge blowup

The captain has asked that you please return to your seats and prepare for severe turbulence. Once the red SEATBELT sign is no longer flashing, we will resume distributing peanuts and cheese puffs to those scientists who still have an appetite. For those of you flying with us for the first time, we realize that you have little choice in being here today - so you might as well enjoy the ride

[drewschmaltz]

Models shifting west and Idalia hugging east of guidance. I could be -removed- but something with that just feels off.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Models shifting west and Idalia hugging east of guidance. I could be -removed- but something with that just feels off.

It's not just you. It's a story we watched unfold very recently just last year.

[FLLurker32]

To the East of forecast? Levi says no. I’ll go eat crow now…
 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1696335689770586136

[chaser1]

I think Idalia might have finally crossed 85.0 W?

[Poonwalker]

The hurricane models seem to be doing a really good job on Idalia. This is exactly where they said it would be...maybe a couple of mb too high, but all in all so far so good.

GFS has it at 994 and 981 in 36 hrs.

[Craters]

There are clear signs on satellite imagery that Idalia is on the cusp of hurricane strength. Infrared shows an expanding canopy, with building cloud tops in the southern quadrant:
https://i.postimg.cc/kXdZcmty/goes16-ir-10-L-202308282107.gif

Using meso sector visible imagery, we can also see clear gravity wave oscillations that are causing perturbations in the developing CDO of Idalia this evening:
https://i.postimg.cc/nrHnNQPH/goes16-vis-meso1.gif

I have a question about those gravity waves that I had when I initially saw that loop, if I may.

Why are they emanating from the left of the CDO and moving laterally across it instead of forming where the convection is overshooting near the center and propagating more symmetrically, radially outward?

Thanks!

[FireRat]

I mean, I'm no met, but this doesn't look great..... right over the center as well.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/112d93f4e1f2365fbf9c262161501332cd31758e9f82dd792300b1392f948fd6.gif

Oh my, it looks like a power keg just went off.

Jeez what is this, Tonga 2.0?
Btw recon just got Idalia down to 979 mb

[tolakram]

The hurricane models seem to be doing a really good job on Idalia. This is exactly where they said it would be...maybe a couple of mb too high, but all in all so far so good.

I just went back to look at HWRF, HMON, HFAS A, HFAS B and GFS. All were to the west of Cuba. It’s a bit like splitting hairs but could make an impact as it travels N and NNE.

Only the last few runs of the HWRF did not go over Cuba, most did, and further east.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like the reason the HH aren't getting fixes on Idalia is because the LLC is technically over Cuba right now. If so, it's east of the forecast track. But we're talking like only a hair more east.

[FLLurker32]

The hurricane models seem to be doing a really good job on Idalia. This is exactly where they said it would be...maybe a couple of mb too high, but all in all so far so good.

I just went back to look at HWRF, HMON, HFAS A, HFAS B and GFS. All were to the west of Cuba. It’s a bit like splitting hairs but could make an impact as it travels N and NNE.

Only the last few runs of the HWRF did not go over Cuba, most did, and further east.

Correct. I was referencing the latest model runs today that garnered todays western trend. All of those stayed west of the Cuban western coastline.

[LandoWill]

Models shifting west and Idalia hugging east of guidance. I could be -removed- but something with that just feels off.

It's not just you. It's a story we watched unfold very recently just last year.

Wait till they shift it more at 11pm