ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1661 Postby SunnyThoughts » Mon Aug 28, 2023 8:36 pm

That's gotta be one of the craziest satellite pics I've ever seen. And I'm old.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1662 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Mon Aug 28, 2023 8:37 pm

The hurricane models seem to be doing a really good job on Idalia. This is exactly where they said it would be...maybe a couple of mb too high, but all in all so far so good.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1663 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Aug 28, 2023 8:38 pm

Idalia and Franklin look pretty neat when viewing them on this global surface wind map.


https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 834,21.944
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1664 Postby JaxGator » Mon Aug 28, 2023 8:40 pm

PavelGaborik10 wrote:I mean, I'm no met, but this doesn't look great..... right over the center as well.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/112d93f4e1f2365fbf9c262161501332cd31758e9f82dd792300b1392f948fd6.gif


Oh my, it looks like a power keg just went off.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1665 Postby zzzh » Mon Aug 28, 2023 8:40 pm

Image
Well.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1666 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Aug 28, 2023 8:41 pm

That blast of convection just now is not something I’ve seen before, wow.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1667 Postby wx98 » Mon Aug 28, 2023 8:43 pm

Worth noting that the strip of Cuba it's currently over is practically nothing, land-wise. Similar to crossing Plaquemines Parish...
Last edited by wx98 on Mon Aug 28, 2023 8:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1668 Postby FLLurker32 » Mon Aug 28, 2023 8:43 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:The hurricane models seem to be doing a really good job on Idalia. This is exactly where they said it would be...maybe a couple of mb too high, but all in all so far so good.

I just went back to look at HWRF, HMON, HFAS A, HFAS B and GFS. All were to the west of Cuba. It’s a bit like splitting hairs but could make an impact as it travels N and NNE.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1669 Postby chaser1 » Mon Aug 28, 2023 8:46 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:Recon is right under that huge blowup


The captain has asked that you please return to your seats and prepare for severe turbulence. Once the red SEATBELT sign is no longer flashing, we will resume distributing peanuts and cheese puffs to those scientists who still have an appetite. For those of you flying with us for the first time, we realize that you have little choice in being here today - so you might as well enjoy the ride :cheesy:
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1670 Postby drewschmaltz » Mon Aug 28, 2023 8:46 pm

Models shifting west and Idalia hugging east of guidance. I could be -removed- but something with that just feels off.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1671 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Aug 28, 2023 8:50 pm

drewschmaltz wrote:Models shifting west and Idalia hugging east of guidance. I could be -removed- but something with that just feels off.


It's not just you. It's a story we watched unfold very recently just last year.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1672 Postby FLLurker32 » Mon Aug 28, 2023 8:52 pm

To the East of forecast? Levi says no. I’ll go eat crow now…
 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1696335689770586136


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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1673 Postby chaser1 » Mon Aug 28, 2023 8:53 pm

I think Idalia might have finally crossed 85.0 W?
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1674 Postby Poonwalker » Mon Aug 28, 2023 8:54 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:The hurricane models seem to be doing a really good job on Idalia. This is exactly where they said it would be...maybe a couple of mb too high, but all in all so far so good.

GFS has it at 994 and 981 in 36 hrs.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1675 Postby Craters » Mon Aug 28, 2023 8:56 pm

USTropics wrote:There are clear signs on satellite imagery that Idalia is on the cusp of hurricane strength. Infrared shows an expanding canopy, with building cloud tops in the southern quadrant:
https://i.postimg.cc/kXdZcmty/goes16-ir-10-L-202308282107.gif

Using meso sector visible imagery, we can also see clear gravity wave oscillations that are causing perturbations in the developing CDO of Idalia this evening:
https://i.postimg.cc/nrHnNQPH/goes16-vis-meso1.gif

I have a question about those gravity waves that I had when I initially saw that loop, if I may.

Why are they emanating from the left of the CDO and moving laterally across it instead of forming where the convection is overshooting near the center and propagating more symmetrically, radially outward?

Thanks!
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1676 Postby FireRat » Mon Aug 28, 2023 8:57 pm

JaxGator wrote:
PavelGaborik10 wrote:I mean, I'm no met, but this doesn't look great..... right over the center as well.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/112d93f4e1f2365fbf9c262161501332cd31758e9f82dd792300b1392f948fd6.gif


Oh my, it looks like a power keg just went off.


Jeez what is this, Tonga 2.0? :eek:
Btw recon just got Idalia down to 979 mb
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1677 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 28, 2023 8:57 pm

FLLurker32 wrote:
ScottNAtlanta wrote:The hurricane models seem to be doing a really good job on Idalia. This is exactly where they said it would be...maybe a couple of mb too high, but all in all so far so good.

I just went back to look at HWRF, HMON, HFAS A, HFAS B and GFS. All were to the west of Cuba. It’s a bit like splitting hairs but could make an impact as it travels N and NNE.


Only the last few runs of the HWRF did not go over Cuba, most did, and further east.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1678 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Aug 28, 2023 8:59 pm

Looks like the reason the HH aren't getting fixes on Idalia is because the LLC is technically over Cuba right now. If so, it's east of the forecast track. But we're talking like only a hair more east.

Image
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1679 Postby FLLurker32 » Mon Aug 28, 2023 9:02 pm

tolakram wrote:
FLLurker32 wrote:
ScottNAtlanta wrote:The hurricane models seem to be doing a really good job on Idalia. This is exactly where they said it would be...maybe a couple of mb too high, but all in all so far so good.

I just went back to look at HWRF, HMON, HFAS A, HFAS B and GFS. All were to the west of Cuba. It’s a bit like splitting hairs but could make an impact as it travels N and NNE.


Only the last few runs of the HWRF did not go over Cuba, most did, and further east.

Correct. I was referencing the latest model runs today that garnered todays western trend. All of those stayed west of the Cuban western coastline.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1680 Postby LandoWill » Mon Aug 28, 2023 9:03 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
drewschmaltz wrote:Models shifting west and Idalia hugging east of guidance. I could be -removed- but something with that just feels off.


It's not just you. It's a story we watched unfold very recently just last year.

Wait till they shift it more at 11pm :)
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