ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

The anti-cyclone that was anchored over the Yucatan and causing Idalia's vort column to tilt has moved west into the BoC.
Thus a major factor in inhibiting intensification has subsided.

Microwave soundings shows a much improved warm-core structure with a negative temperature anomaly above the surface of the water.
Nearly ideal for maximum flow of energy out of the water into the core.
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... _xsect.gif

[Blown Away]

Big Bend not very populated, but Fish Creek & Steinhatchee are super cool little fishing villages. They are in the direct path and are so low.

[GCANE]

Looks like it is picking a high TPW feed from the EPAC flowing over east Nicaragua and Honduras
Need to see if this evolves into the major feeder band.
May also pull in Caribbean air as GFS forecasted.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... anim=html5

[NDG]

So this is what I missed when I went to sleep earlier than usual.
Great job by the HWRF & HAFS models of being persistent of Idalia closing off an eye earlier than what the global models were showing. This thing is about to take off.
BTW, based on radar I estimate its center to be near 23.1N 84.7W a little east of the latest best track estimate by the NHC, interesting that the latest HAFS-B is running west biased on its longer range, something to keep in mind.

[GCANE]

Seeing a weak PV streamer to the NW of the CoC.
Looks like this may be the only thing that keeps from going unlimited RI.
Watching closely.

[NDG]

Pure octane fuel is being pumped into the circulation, Key West reporting 86F with dewpoints of 79F-81F.

[Extratropical94]

Miss Piggy is in the air and should arrive at Idalia's core in about an hour.

[Cargill]

Part of me is glad for the shear, because it halted idalia strengthening, and likely prevented it from becoming a monster, but the other part of me is mad at the shear because I wanted to see her become a monster.

My understanding is, having been a very interested reader here for several years, is that you can never wish for a bigger, more intense storm. I know lots of people want big intense storms, but you're not allowed to say that quiet part out loud. And quite rightly too - property gets wrecked and people die every time.

[Sanibel]

About to cross Gulf Stream while showing RI Tendencies...

Oh boy!...

[Hurricane Mike]

Early morning video update on Hurricane Idalia
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iBTG75KLymI

[SFLcane]

They keep it as a storm..

[Kingarabian]

It being CDO based means explosive RI is favored vs, failing to seal off and struggle with dry air all the way up until landfall like Issac 2012.

[Nimbus]

So this is what I missed when I went to sleep earlier than usual.
Great job by the HWRF & HAFS models of being persistent of Idalia closing off an eye earlier than what the global models were showing. This thing is about to take off.
BTW, based on radar I estimate its center to be near 23.1N 84.7W a little east of the latest best track estimate by the NHC, interesting that the latest HAFS-B is running west biased on its longer range, something to keep in mind.

https://i.imgur.com/l3lh6LP.gif

5AM forecast at 24 hours is
24H 30/0600Z 27.8N 84.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
Astronomical unusually high tide comes about ~10:30 AM on Wednesday for Tampa bay area.
This will be the highest tide Tampa bay has seen in a while so we will get a better idea if our flood surge models are accurate for the future.
All zone A has been evacuated.

And of course I have the PTSD inflicted by Charley and Ian so will be wobble watching and checking on the trough soundings.

[sarcean]

:double:

https://i.postimg.cc/N018mWHC/IMG-7526.jpg

They keep it as a storm..

https://i.postimg.cc/nrvMPJnN/IMG-7527.png

While much to early to speculate can you imagine it landfilling three separate times. First as a major into Florida, then circle around and landfall into Florida again and then landfall again somewhere over the Gulf after crossing over Florida and strengthening.

[jlauderdal]

:double:

https://i.postimg.cc/N018mWHC/IMG-7526.jpg

They keep it as a storm..

https://i.postimg.cc/nrvMPJnN/IMG-7527.png

idalia with the loop, this systems likes to do loops and good ensemble support for the wave coming off africa, busy times

[Teban54]

:double:

https://i.postimg.cc/N018mWHC/IMG-7526.jpg

They keep it as a storm..

https://i.postimg.cc/nrvMPJnN/IMG-7527.png

While much to early to speculate can you imagine it landfilling three separate times. First as a major into Florida, then circle around and landfall into Florida again and then landfall again somewhere over the Gulf after crossing over Florida and strengthening.

Bonus points if the third landfall is in FL panhandle.

[fllawyer]

Today’s 5am advisory puts Idalia at 23.1N/85.0W.

Monday’s 5am advisory estimated she would be at 22.6N/85.1W as of today’s 5am advisory.

So, seems that it is slightly further N and E than they expected yesterday morning. Real question will be how long she keeps this N heading before the NNE turn.

[Iceresistance]

I just woke up, what did I miss?

[jlauderdal]

Strap yourselves in ladies and gentlemen. The next 24-36 hours are gonna be a wild ride.

How about the next 10 days at least, idalia coming back and a very robust system looking like it comes all the way across. Lets also not forget how complex intensity forecasting is, Not long ago wxman 57 had it at 55knts at landfall which made perfect sense at the time based on modeling, NHC has been ramping up too. Track forecasting has improved much faster than intensity forecasting.

[Keldeo1997]