ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Zonacane]

GCANE, are you checking out the towers rotating through the eyewall?

[tolakram]

Tampa saved loop. Remember at this distance the radar is looking near the top of the eye. https://i.imgur.com/bnsvCI1.gif

What site is that imagery from? TIA.

RadarScope, a paid mobile + Windows 10/11 app. It has it's own crappy GIF saver which I don't use, instead I use a program called ScreenToGif to capture the loop.

[jasons2k]

She just wobbled east. Let’s see if it’s a wobble or a new trend.

[Michele B]

Everything radar indicated so far
Nothing observed

https://twitter.com/NWStornado/status/1696585965240979518

Based on the FL511 cameras, visibility from those storms is terrible, so it is going to be hard to have confirmation of a tornado from these lines of storms.

I like this Klystron weather radar system - out of Tampa, but it will zoom out to anywhere you want to see.

I followed it one time in real time when I lived in Bradenton and had a tornado warning over me. I could literally SEE the "spinning" air in clouds to show me where the tornado clouds were spinning up.

https://baynews9.com/fl/tampa/weather/radar

[Michele B]

[b]Trof is digging in fast into the NW GOM
At the TX/LA Border.[/b]
Some convection ahead of it along the CAPE gradient south of MS Delta

Does this portend an earlier turn to the east?

[jfk08c]

This is shaping up to be a devastating hit for my area. The power outages are going to be horrid due to trees. I fear the building codes are not up to this.

As far as I'm concerned, ALL of Florida should have the strict hurricane codes of S. FL.

These storms seem to be coming north just as strong as anything the south ever gets.

Maybe after this there will be changes to building codes in rural areas in the north.

In fact, maybe some areas did. Can anyone near Mexico Beach tell me? Did they update your building codes due to Michael's devastation?

The building codes in S Fl were put in place because everything was built out of cardboard when Andrew came through. People don't see the need until it actually affects them

[bjackrian]

19 foot waves and still increasing now at buoy 42097, Pulley Ridge, about 75 nautical miles to the ENE of the center.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42097

[Extratropical94]

Here we go!!. Air Force plane is taxing to then depart.

https://i.imgur.com/donxd8S.png

TT hasn't loaded the other HDOBs yet, the plane is already in the air and on its way to Idalia. Currently at 28.4N 87.2W

[eastcoastFL]

[b]Trof is digging in fast into the NW GOM
At the TX/LA Border.[/b]
Some convection ahead of it along the CAPE gradient south of MS Delta

Does this portend an earlier turn to the east?

Time will tell. Let's hope not

[TallyTracker]

She just wobbled east. Let’s see if it’s a wobble or a new trend.

It might be making up for earlier being west of track. We shall see!

[Michele B]

This is shaping up to be a massive surge event. The story of Idalia will be about the surge when it’s over.

Well, a high Cat 3 ain't nuthin to sneeze at.

[eastcoastFL]

Here we go!!. Air Force plane is taxing to then depart.

https://i.imgur.com/donxd8S.png

TT hasn't loaded the other HDOBs yet, the plane is already in the air and on its way to Idalia. Currently at 28.4N 87.2W

I can see it on flight radar 24 but I'm not sure how to post a screen shot

[LandoWill]

based on the radar, looks like sarasota/venice/ft myers gonna get hit harder than tampa, Unless that comes later

[ScottNAtlanta]

Here we go!!. Air Force plane is taxing to then depart.

https://i.imgur.com/donxd8S.png

TT hasn't loaded the other HDOBs yet, the plane is already in the air and on its way to Idalia. Currently at 28.4N 87.2W

Google Earth is now showing them in the air and returning data

[USTropics]

[b]Trof is digging in fast into the NW GOM
At the TX/LA Border.[/b]
Some convection ahead of it along the CAPE gradient south of MS Delta

Does this portend an earlier turn to the east?

A stronger trough over the NW GOM would usher a quicker moving Idala, not so much the turn to the east. What sets the turn to the east is the western periphery of this ridge (roughly traced in pink). The edge will be set by the trough over the NE United States:

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looking at satellite, I'm thinking recon is going to find the eye is larger than earlier

[Iceresistance]

CyclonicWX Recon data says that AF304 is in the GoM

[USTropics]

Recon should be arriving in the next 30-45 minutes:

[chris_fit]

[ScottNAtlanta]

[b]Trof is digging in fast into the NW GOM
At the TX/LA Border.[/b]
Some convection ahead of it along the CAPE gradient south of MS Delta

Does this portend an earlier turn to the east?

A stronger trough over the NW GOM would usher a quicker moving Idala, not so much the turn to the east. What sets the turn to the east is the western periphery of this ridge (roughly traced in pink). The edge will be set by the trough over the NE United States:
https://i.imgur.com/DnKbRmv.png

In Levi's video earlier, he was saying that the ridge was a little west of where they had expected it (ie strong ridge).