ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

I've noticed the outflow jet to the north is really getting established now in addition to the southern one

[nlosrgr8]

“I” names have the most retired names:
Ian (2022) resulted in 150 deaths
Ida (2021) resulted in 100 deaths
Igor (2010) resulted in 1 death
Ike (2008) resulted in 103 deaths
Inez (1966) resulted in about 300 deaths
Ingrid (2013) resulted in 32 deaths
Ione (1955) resulted in 7 deaths
Iota (2020) resulted in 84 deaths
Irene (2011) resulted in 48 deaths
Iris (2001) resulted in 50 deaths
Irma (2017) resulted in 150 deaths
Isabel (2003) resulted in 51 deaths
Isidore (2002) resulted in 9 deaths
Ivan (2004) resulted in 100 deaths

[InfernoFlameCat]

I've noticed the outflow jet to the north is really getting established now in addition to the southern one

That’s true, the outflow is getting really good. Let’s hope the core isn’t able to take advantage until it’s too late.

[tolakram]

[ScottNAtlanta]

Eye circular 25 miles open NW

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Winds are likely 80-85 knots in the NE quad.

[fllawyer]

Shear picking up in N GOM.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

[Canelaw99]

Afternoon all,
Eveyone stay safe. Getting our first feeder band coming into Key Largo now.

Just had our first through Homestead.

[ScottNAtlanta]

https://imgur.com/AklrMgX

Looks like 2 evil eyes looking at you

[ScottNAtlanta]

Shear picking up in N GOM.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

That's basically the outflow jet. That is a positive for strengthening

[xironman]

Its kind funny since this thing was a invest 4 days ago and people wonder why it is not living up to expectations.

Pressure is down maybe 2 mb from last time. Looks like it has not been strengthening much at all, contrary to what all the hurricane models were forecasting.

What models?
HAFS-A 965MB at 5PM
HAFS-B 964MB at 5PM
HWRF 964MB at 5PM

I'm not so sure it's that far off. It's a good sign perhaps, but not that good.

11PM tonight, most hurricane models have it between 949 and 955. That might be the point to look at as time will be rapidly running out. We don't know how fast this will deepen once the eyewall is fully formed.

[cycloneye]

VDM with the 91kt.

URNT12 KNHC 292026
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL102023
A. 29/20:21:40Z
B. 25.91 deg N 084.82 deg W
C. 700 mb 2879 m
D. 972 mb
E. 205 deg 5 kt
F. OPEN NW
G. C25
H. 63 kt
I. 312 deg 5 nm 20:20:00Z
J. 034 deg 53 kt
K. 312 deg 5 nm 20:20:00Z
L. 69 kt
M. 136 deg 14 nm 20:25:30Z
N. 237 deg 91 kt
O. 135 deg 18 nm 20:26:30Z
P. 14 C / 3067 m
Q. 15 C / 3068 m
R. 14 C / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF304 1110A IDALIA OB 04
MAX FL WIND 91 KT 135 / 18 NM 20:26:30Z

[PavelGaborik10]

I'll be honest I'm very surprised in a positive manner regarding what's transpired today. I was fully expecting a strong cat 2 by this point, right now the pretty has been dropping pretty slowly and the winds still appear to only support a category 1.

I hope this continues and it struggles to get to category 2, I was fully anticipating a 4, now I have serious doubts that transpires.

Let's hope for continued good news

[ScottNAtlanta]

Only a couple of degrees variation inside and outside of the eye. I would have expected the difference to be higher

[Hypercane_Kyle]

NHC at 11am predicted Idalia would be at 105mph at 00z. Right now at nearly 21z it's close to 100mph.

Right on track with intensity. 110-115 knot at landfall is still a good prediction.

140 knots+ though? No way.

[StormPyrate]

open eye on the west is good, there is a tad bit of dry air over there, take a gulp

[Iceresistance]

VDM with the 91kt.

URNT12 KNHC 292026
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL102023
A. 29/20:21:40Z
B. 25.91 deg N 084.82 deg W
C. 700 mb 2879 m
D. 972 mb
E. 205 deg 5 kt
F. OPEN NW
G. C25
H. 63 kt
I. 312 deg 5 nm 20:20:00Z
J. 034 deg 53 kt
K. 312 deg 5 nm 20:20:00Z
L. 69 kt
M. 136 deg 14 nm 20:25:30Z
N. 237 deg 91 kt
O. 135 deg 18 nm 20:26:30Z
P. 14 C / 3067 m
Q. 15 C / 3068 m
R. 14 C / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF304 1110A IDALIA OB 04
MAX FL WIND 91 KT 135 / 18 NM 20:26:30Z

The "Open NW" tells me that Idalia has yet to completely mix out a dry slot that found its way into the core.

[ScottNAtlanta]

NHC at 11am predicted Idalia would be at 105mph at 00z. Right now at nearly 21z it's close to 100mph.

Right on track with intensity. 110-115 knot at landfall is still a good prediction.

140 knots+ though? No way.

Never say never because the Hurricane Gods will spite you...lol

[1234567]

As far as I'm concerned, ALL of Florida should have the strict hurricane codes of S. FL.

These storms seem to be coming north just as strong as anything the south ever gets.

Maybe after this there will be changes to building codes in rural areas in the north.

In fact, maybe some areas did. Can anyone near Mexico Beach tell me? Did they update your building codes due to Michael's devastation?

Not an expert, but all counties are supposed to follow the Florida Building Code and wind loading requirements. In Gulf County, most new construction performed as designed and a lot older well-built structures did well also. Water(surge) was the major cause of destruction when structure elevation was not sufficient to avoid the surge. Wind caused the next highest level of destruction. Elevation was a major factor for rebuilding in surge areas. It is my understanding that any structure having 50% or more damage is supposed to be rebuilt to code. A word of warning for any one subject to surge from Idalia, do not underestimate the power of water. Don't gamble, water wins, you lose.

You are correct, dont remember the year, but all new building in Florida has to meet new codes, and older houses sold in Florida more often than not have to be improved to get home owners, we had to put a roof on, with mitigation and confirm we had storm rated windows and doors before we could get insurance, just four years ago.

We all have to follow FEMA's 50% rule here in Florida. If the damage to your home exceeds 50% of the property's market value it must be brought up to current building codes and floodplain regulations.

[Fancy1002]

I'll be honest I'm very surprised in a positive manner regarding what's transpired today. I was fully expecting a strong cat 2 by this point, right now the pretty has been dropping pretty slowly and the winds still appear to only support a category 1.

I hope this continues and it struggles to get to category 2, I was fully anticipating a 4, now I have serious doubts that transpires.

Let's hope for continued good news

Isn’t it a category two right now with 91kt.