ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ScottNAtlanta
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2241 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Tue Aug 29, 2023 3:47 pm

I've noticed the outflow jet to the north is really getting established now in addition to the southern one
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2242 Postby nlosrgr8 » Tue Aug 29, 2023 3:48 pm

“I” names have the most retired names:
Ian (2022) resulted in 150 deaths
Ida (2021) resulted in 100 deaths
Igor (2010) resulted in 1 death
Ike (2008) resulted in 103 deaths
Inez (1966) resulted in about 300 deaths
Ingrid (2013) resulted in 32 deaths
Ione (1955) resulted in 7 deaths
Iota (2020) resulted in 84 deaths
Irene (2011) resulted in 48 deaths
Iris (2001) resulted in 50 deaths
Irma (2017) resulted in 150 deaths
Isabel (2003) resulted in 51 deaths
Isidore (2002) resulted in 9 deaths
Ivan (2004) resulted in 100 deaths
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2243 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Aug 29, 2023 3:49 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:I've noticed the outflow jet to the north is really getting established now in addition to the southern one

That’s true, the outflow is getting really good. Let’s hope the core isn’t able to take advantage until it’s too late.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2244 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 29, 2023 3:50 pm

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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2245 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Tue Aug 29, 2023 3:50 pm

Eye circular 25 miles open NW
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2246 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Aug 29, 2023 3:50 pm

Winds are likely 80-85 knots in the NE quad.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2247 Postby fllawyer » Tue Aug 29, 2023 3:50 pm

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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2248 Postby Canelaw99 » Tue Aug 29, 2023 3:51 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:Afternoon all,
Eveyone stay safe. Getting our first feeder band coming into Key Largo now.


Just had our first through Homestead.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2249 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Tue Aug 29, 2023 3:51 pm


Looks like 2 evil eyes looking at you
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2250 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Tue Aug 29, 2023 3:52 pm


That's basically the outflow jet. That is a positive for strengthening
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2251 Postby xironman » Tue Aug 29, 2023 3:53 pm

Its kind funny since this thing was a invest 4 days ago and people wonder why it is not living up to expectations.

tolakram wrote:
aspen wrote:Pressure is down maybe 2 mb from last time. Looks like it has not been strengthening much at all, contrary to what all the hurricane models were forecasting.


What models?
HAFS-A 965MB at 5PM
HAFS-B 964MB at 5PM
HWRF 964MB at 5PM

I'm not so sure it's that far off. It's a good sign perhaps, but not that good.

11PM tonight, most hurricane models have it between 949 and 955. That might be the point to look at as time will be rapidly running out. We don't know how fast this will deepen once the eyewall is fully formed.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2252 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 29, 2023 3:53 pm

VDM with the 91kt.

URNT12 KNHC 292026
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL102023
A. 29/20:21:40Z
B. 25.91 deg N 084.82 deg W
C. 700 mb 2879 m
D. 972 mb
E. 205 deg 5 kt
F. OPEN NW
G. C25
H. 63 kt
I. 312 deg 5 nm 20:20:00Z
J. 034 deg 53 kt
K. 312 deg 5 nm 20:20:00Z
L. 69 kt
M. 136 deg 14 nm 20:25:30Z
N. 237 deg 91 kt
O. 135 deg 18 nm 20:26:30Z
P. 14 C / 3067 m
Q. 15 C / 3068 m
R. 14 C / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF304 1110A IDALIA OB 04
MAX FL WIND 91 KT 135 / 18 NM 20:26:30Z
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2253 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Tue Aug 29, 2023 3:54 pm

I'll be honest I'm very surprised in a positive manner regarding what's transpired today. I was fully expecting a strong cat 2 by this point, right now the pretty has been dropping pretty slowly and the winds still appear to only support a category 1.

I hope this continues and it struggles to get to category 2, I was fully anticipating a 4, now I have serious doubts that transpires.

Let's hope for continued good news
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2254 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Tue Aug 29, 2023 3:55 pm

Only a couple of degrees variation inside and outside of the eye. I would have expected the difference to be higher
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2255 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Aug 29, 2023 3:55 pm

NHC at 11am predicted Idalia would be at 105mph at 00z. Right now at nearly 21z it's close to 100mph.

Right on track with intensity. 110-115 knot at landfall is still a good prediction.

140 knots+ though? No way.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2256 Postby StormPyrate » Tue Aug 29, 2023 3:55 pm

open eye on the west is good, there is a tad bit of dry air over there, take a gulp
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2257 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Aug 29, 2023 3:55 pm

cycloneye wrote:VDM with the 91kt.

URNT12 KNHC 292026
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL102023
A. 29/20:21:40Z
B. 25.91 deg N 084.82 deg W
C. 700 mb 2879 m
D. 972 mb
E. 205 deg 5 kt
F. OPEN NW
G. C25
H. 63 kt
I. 312 deg 5 nm 20:20:00Z
J. 034 deg 53 kt
K. 312 deg 5 nm 20:20:00Z
L. 69 kt
M. 136 deg 14 nm 20:25:30Z
N. 237 deg 91 kt
O. 135 deg 18 nm 20:26:30Z
P. 14 C / 3067 m
Q. 15 C / 3068 m
R. 14 C / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF304 1110A IDALIA OB 04
MAX FL WIND 91 KT 135 / 18 NM 20:26:30Z

The "Open NW" tells me that Idalia has yet to completely mix out a dry slot that found its way into the core.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2258 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Tue Aug 29, 2023 3:56 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:NHC at 11am predicted Idalia would be at 105mph at 00z. Right now at nearly 21z it's close to 100mph.

Right on track with intensity. 110-115 knot at landfall is still a good prediction.

140 knots+ though? No way.

Never say never because the Hurricane Gods will spite you...lol
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2259 Postby 1234567 » Tue Aug 29, 2023 3:57 pm

StormPyrate wrote:
gulf701 wrote:
Michele B wrote:
As far as I'm concerned, ALL of Florida should have the strict hurricane codes of S. FL.

These storms seem to be coming north just as strong as anything the south ever gets.

Maybe after this there will be changes to building codes in rural areas in the north.

In fact, maybe some areas did. Can anyone near Mexico Beach tell me? Did they update your building codes due to Michael's devastation?


Not an expert, but all counties are supposed to follow the Florida Building Code and wind loading requirements. In Gulf County, most new construction performed as designed and a lot older well-built structures did well also. Water(surge) was the major cause of destruction when structure elevation was not sufficient to avoid the surge. Wind caused the next highest level of destruction. Elevation was a major factor for rebuilding in surge areas. It is my understanding that any structure having 50% or more damage is supposed to be rebuilt to code. A word of warning for any one subject to surge from Idalia, do not underestimate the power of water. Don't gamble, water wins, you lose.


You are correct, dont remember the year, but all new building in Florida has to meet new codes, and older houses sold in Florida more often than not have to be improved to get home owners, we had to put a roof on, with mitigation and confirm we had storm rated windows and doors before we could get insurance, just four years ago.


We all have to follow FEMA's 50% rule here in Florida. If the damage to your home exceeds 50% of the property's market value it must be brought up to current building codes and floodplain regulations.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2260 Postby Fancy1002 » Tue Aug 29, 2023 3:57 pm

PavelGaborik10 wrote:I'll be honest I'm very surprised in a positive manner regarding what's transpired today. I was fully expecting a strong cat 2 by this point, right now the pretty has been dropping pretty slowly and the winds still appear to only support a category 1.

I hope this continues and it struggles to get to category 2, I was fully anticipating a 4, now I have serious doubts that transpires.

Let's hope for continued good news

Isn’t it a category two right now with 91kt.
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