2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

I'm convinced. Someone has neutered the GFS LOL.
EURO, GEM, and ICON all showing a disturbance near 35W at about 138 hours. I'm hardly seeing GFS ensemble evidence of this feature.

CMC,ICON have it pretty instant fish.

[Kat5]

So many fishes so little time!

[Iceresistance]

I'm convinced. Someone has neutered the GFS LOL.
EURO, GEM, and ICON all showing a disturbance near 35W at about 138 hours. I'm hardly seeing GFS ensemble evidence of this feature.

CMC,ICON have it pretty instant fish.

CMC dips it south somewhat at the end of the run.

[SFLcane]

So many fishes so little time!

[cycloneye]

GFS has it as a strong wave moving thru PR on the 10th.

[Kingarabian]

Have to see what's going on with the GFS. It messed up pretty badly with Franklin and Idalia.

[zzzh]

I'd ignore the GFS. The only thing GFS did right this month was caving to Euro

[SFLcane]

How is that shutdown going?

[SouthFLTropics]

12z Euro looking quite interesting. If that ridge holds, may have a player for the east coast to contend with. Definitely a concern for the islands as we move into late next week.

[SFLcane]

High is moving in tandem with it....

[cycloneye]

The ensembles will be very interesting.

[SFLcane]

[AutoPenalti]

https://i.postimg.cc/GhPT5zrt/jjjjjnnn.gif

Cut off low is there, likely a Carolinas threat if you want to play fantasy past 240.

[jlauderdal]

https://i.postimg.cc/GhPT5zrt/jjjjjnnn.gif

Looks like peak hurricane season...when do the fish posts start on this one?

[SFLcane]

https://i.postimg.cc/GhPT5zrt/jjjjjnnn.gif

Cut off low is there, likely a Carolinas threat if you want to play fantasy past 240.

Who knows..

[aspen]

The Euro did predict Idalia well before the GFS, but it and the CMC do seem to have a bit of an MDR bias. If they still have this MDR runner in a few days and the GFS (or its ensembles) start picking up on it, then that’ll be big. Perhaps this could be our big ACE-maker of the season.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z UKMET still has that MDR TC that the Euro and other models have though it isn't as strong as the 0Z:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 10.1N 20.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.09.2023 84 10.1N 20.2W 1009 28
1200UTC 03.09.2023 96 10.3N 22.8W 1009 25
0000UTC 04.09.2023 108 12.1N 26.6W 1009 26
1200UTC 04.09.2023 120 12.4N 30.5W 1008 27
0000UTC 05.09.2023 132 12.9N 34.2W 1008 29
1200UTC 05.09.2023 144 13.4N 38.2W 1007 31
0000UTC 06.09.2023 156 13.9N 41.0W 1006 33
1200UTC 06.09.2023 168 14.2N 44.3W 1004 38

[Cachondo23]

GFS has it as a strong wave moving thru PR on the 10th.

PR always has something in its area in that timeframe 9/10-9/20, climo is on its favor.

[zzzh]

The second wave is likely overdone on deterministic EC.
EPS trended north with the first wave.

[AutoPenalti]

EPS looks fishy.