ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneBelle]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1699063125277094189

[Subtrop]

Special Message from NHC Issued 5 Sep 2023 14:13 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, at 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC).

[aspen]

How high do you think they’ll put the first peak at? I’m thinking 100 kt, maybe even 105 kt. There’s strong model support for a major within 5 days and the NHC has been pretty aggressive with it in the TWOs.

[LarryWx]

AL, 95, 2023090512, , BEST, 0, 122N, 396W, 30, 1008, LO

https://i.imgur.com/hnw6HkX.png

The 0Z UKMET initialized at 12.5N, 37.4W. The Best Track had 95L at 11.2N, 36.2W at 0Z; 11.5N, 37.5W at 6Z; and at 12.2N, 39.6W at 12Z. So, the 0Z UK initialized 1.3 further N and 1.2 further W or 120 miles NW of the Best Track position. However, 95L has moved about 3:1 W by N from 0Z to 12Z rather than moving the 1:1 of straight NW. Thus, the 12Z Best Track position is 150 miles W of the 0Z UK initialization.

Translation: the 12Z UKMET track may very well initialize nearly due W vs its 0Z initialization. We'll see whether or not that translates to the 12Z UK track being even further W to SW of the already far W to SW 0Z run vs the other models, but that's quite possible.

*Edited

[mantis83]

At the start of the season, Lee was one of the names I pegged to be one of the “baddies” of the year (either in intensity or impact). Looks like it could be trending that way. Expecting advisories in an hour.

on intensity for sure, impact....not so much thankfully

[kevin]

How high do you think they’ll put the first peak at? I’m thinking 100 kt, maybe even 105 kt. There’s strong model support for a major within 5 days and the NHC has been pretty aggressive with it in the TWOs.

Based on the models (see my recent post in the models thread) they are all at least at 115 kt at the +120 hrs point. And with 'all' I mean even ECMWF and GFS. Of course even if the models say so 115+ kt is a crazy first advisory. But I do think they'll go major so at least 100 kt. If there's ever a time to go 105 kt in the first advisory this is it.

[Woofde]

At the start of the season, Lee was one of the names I pegged to be one of the “baddies” of the year (either in intensity or impact). Looks like it could be trending that way. Expecting advisories in an hour.

on intensity for sure, impact....not so much thankfully

Anything over 120 hours is going to be inaccurate. Impact could still be 240 hours out. Multiple recent GFS runs have brought this over my house. I understand these storms can be nerve racking, but you're downplaying something that's far from a done deal. Impacts are definitely still up in the air.

[AutoPenalti]

AL, 95, 2023090512, , BEST, 0, 122N, 396W, 30, 1008, LO

https://i.imgur.com/hnw6HkX.png

The 0Z UKMET initialized at 12.5N, 37.4W. The Best Track had 95L at 11.2N, 36.2W at 0Z; 11.5N, 37.5W at 6Z; and at 12.2N, 39.6W at 12Z. So, the 0Z UK initialized 1.3 further N and 1.2 further W or 120 miles NW of the Best Track position. However, 95L has moved about 3:1 W by N from 0Z to 12Z rather than moving the 1:1 of straight NW. Thus, the 12Z Best Track position is 150 miles W of the 0Z UK initialization.

Translation: the 0Z UKMET track was too far N and thus will likely initialize further S for the 12Z run vs its 0Z track. We'll see whether or not that translates to the 12Z UK track being even further W to SW of the already far W to SW 0Z run vs the other models, but that's quite possible.

Here's 0z UKMET plotted in red, TD#13 best track in blue.

[cheezyWXguy]

AL, 95, 2023090512, , BEST, 0, 122N, 396W, 30, 1008, LO

https://i.imgur.com/hnw6HkX.png

The 0Z UKMET initialized at 12.5N, 37.4W. The Best Track had 95L at 11.2N, 36.2W at 0Z; 11.5N, 37.5W at 6Z; and at 12.2N, 39.6W at 12Z. So, the 0Z UK initialized 1.3 further N and 1.2 further W or 120 miles NW of the Best Track position. However, 95L has moved about 3:1 W by N from 0Z to 12Z rather than moving the 1:1 of straight NW. Thus, the 12Z Best Track position is 150 miles W of the 0Z UK initialization.

Translation: the 0Z UKMET track was too far N and thus will likely initialize further S for the 12Z run vs its 0Z track. We'll see whether or not that translates to the 12Z UK track being even further W to SW of the already far W to SW 0Z run vs the other models, but that's quite possible.

Here's 0z UKMET plotted in red, TD#13 best track in blue.

https://i.imgur.com/Rtv3JkA.png

Over the years I’ve noticed a consistent south or west bias to the ukmet, and the only storm I can really recall it doing well with is Ian. I think it might have been the one that first saw the more southern track for Irma, but it’s been too long for me to recall exactly. That said, if it ends up being right with Lee I’ll take back all the bad things I’ve said about it, because it’s basically down there on its own for now.

[LarryWx]

AL, 95, 2023090512, , BEST, 0, 122N, 396W, 30, 1008, LO

https://i.imgur.com/hnw6HkX.png

The 0Z UKMET initialized at 12.5N, 37.4W. The Best Track had 95L at 11.2N, 36.2W at 0Z; 11.5N, 37.5W at 6Z; and at 12.2N, 39.6W at 12Z. So, the 0Z UK initialized 1.3 further N and 1.2 further W or 120 miles NW of the Best Track position. However, 95L has moved about 3:1 W by N from 0Z to 12Z rather than moving the 1:1 of straight NW. Thus, the 12Z Best Track position is 150 miles W of the 0Z UK initialization.

Translation: the 0Z UKMET track was too far N and thus will likely initialize further S for the 12Z run vs its 0Z track. We'll see whether or not that translates to the 12Z UK track being even further W to SW of the already far W to SW 0Z run vs the other models, but that's quite possible.

Here's 0z UKMET plotted in red, TD#13 best track in blue.

https://i.imgur.com/Rtv3JkA.png

Thanks. I reworded the last part of my post to this:
Translation: the 12Z UKMET track may very well initialize nearly due W vs its 0Z initialization. We'll see whether or not that translates to the 12Z UK track being even further W to SW of the already far W to SW 0Z run vs the other models, but that's quite possible.

[AutoPenalti]

The 0Z UKMET initialized at 12.5N, 37.4W. The Best Track had 95L at 11.2N, 36.2W at 0Z; 11.5N, 37.5W at 6Z; and at 12.2N, 39.6W at 12Z. So, the 0Z UK initialized 1.3 further N and 1.2 further W or 120 miles NW of the Best Track position. However, 95L has moved about 3:1 W by N from 0Z to 12Z rather than moving the 1:1 of straight NW. Thus, the 12Z Best Track position is 150 miles W of the 0Z UK initialization.

Translation: the 0Z UKMET track was too far N and thus will likely initialize further S for the 12Z run vs its 0Z track. We'll see whether or not that translates to the 12Z UK track being even further W to SW of the already far W to SW 0Z run vs the other models, but that's quite possible.

Here's 0z UKMET plotted in red, TD#13 best track in blue.

https://i.imgur.com/Rtv3JkA.png

Over the years I’ve noticed a consistent south or west bias to the ukmet, and the only storm I can really recall it doing well with is Ian. I think it might have been the one that first saw the more southern track for Irma, but it’s been too long for me to recall exactly. That said, if it ends up being right with Lee I’ll take back all the bad things I’ve said about it, because it’s basically down there on its own for now.

FWIW, the ICON has been following suit as well and it seems some ensembles are starting to show it being left behind. We'll see.

[Sciencerocks]

[underthwx]

What will the environmental conditions be like over the depression as it moves along across the Atlantic? Are they favorable for the system to continuously increase in intensity? I refrain from venturing to guess where the cyclone may wind up....

[Iceresistance]

Wind Shear is useless against TD 13


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/Sg1PG.png

[zal0phus]

Wind Shear is useless against TD 13

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/Sg1PG.png
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/Sg1PG.png

It's getting the shrimp look already. I don't like this one

[ElectricStorm]

Good lord

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 21.5N 63.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

[Iceresistance]

Good lord

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 21.5N 63.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

I have never seen this wording before

...FORECAST TO BECOME A POWERFUL HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...

EDIT: Wait a minute, Category 5 gusts??

[abajan]

Seeing info on Franklin at the TD13 link on the NHC page. Hope they get that sorted soon.
EDIT: Never mind

[blp]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 40.2W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT

Already moving WNW...

I trust the NHC but still looks more W to me.

[MarioProtVI]

I wonder if future 13L will be one of those rare systems with a M in its first advisory. I think only Tomas and Sam had a 100kt forecast point in advisory 1, but with the model guidance going absolutely nuts, this could be our next candidate.

I have a nice overview for this . Posted it with Larry and Sam, here is the updated version for the first advisory peak intensity. Based on NHC advisories since 1998 (of which the 1998 - 2002 advisories only went to +72 hrs).

100 kt
2021 - Sam
2010 - Tomas

95 kt
2022 - Ian
2021 - Ida
2020 - Iota
2019 - Lorenzo
2012 - Isaac
2010 - Danielle
2005 - Philippe
2004 - Karl

90 kt
2021 - Larry
2017 - Jose
2016 - Matthew
2009 - Bill
2007 - Dean

85 kt
2020 - Delta
2015 - Danny
2014 - Gonzalo
2011 - Katia
2010 - Earl
2010 - Igor
2006 - Helene
2005 - Wilma

80 kt
2022 - Danielle
2020 - Teddy
2019 - Jerry
2017 - Irma
2017 - Maria
2016 - Gaston
2012 - Leslie
2005 - Rita
2004 - Earl
1999 - Emily

Edit: Thanks SconnieCane, added Irma to the 80 kt list.
Edit2: Thanks Extratropical94 for the other 3 additions.

Aaaand now this thing was blown out of the water. Holy poop