ATL: LEE - Models

[mitchell]

GFS is developing the storm to Lee's east more strongly.
The Fuji effect will give a SE tug on Lee making it look like Lee is slowing down.

The motion of those two systems on the 12 z GFS is interesting. The eastern system gets to the north of Lee, then as LEE chugs up the gulf stream towards SE Canada, the easterly system seems pushed back south several hundred miles

[jlauderdal]

Why do you say a southeast threat?

I think I meant to say "Southeast area of the east coast"

Still, why do you think it would be a SE coast threat like FL, GA, or SC with the model trends?

This isnt a SE coast storm, time to move on from that theory,hope or whatever it is, not happening regardless of a little south or west trend the next few days...north carolina and north, maybe. Southwest Florida will not have any direct effects from Lee. Enjoy the lower dewpoints and good weather in SW Florida.

[shortwave72]

Given the synoptic setup currently and the 10 day forecast of possible placement of the ridge in the Atlantic and the positive tilted trough at roughly the eastern conus it seems like everything from D.C. down to Miami has about a 1% chance, NE 15% chance and Atlantic Canada the highest at around a 40% possibility of seeing direct effects. This is based solely on the past few days of the global models and current mid level tropospheric height positions. IF the persistent toughing over the eastern US was west about 500 miles then I'd be concerned more other than fisherman and shipping.

[Woofde]

I think I meant to say "Southeast area of the east coast"

Still, why do you think it would be a SE coast threat like FL, GA, or SC with the model trends?

This isnt a SE coast storm, time to move on from that theory,hope or whatever it is, not happening regardless of a little south or west trend the next few days...north carolina and north, maybe. Southwest Florida will not have any direct effects from Lee. Enjoy the lower dewpoints and good weather in SW Florida.

I'm not gonna say it's likely a SE storm, because that's not a favored pattern. That said just look at the GFS 7 days out. Models become unskilled fast past this point. I don't think it's reasonable to rule out the Southeast just yet. There's good reason the NHC cone only goes out 5 days.

[jhpigott]

The 12z GEFS ensembles have a handful of rogue members that get uncomfortably close to the SE coast

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 90612&fh=0

[CronkPSU]

I think I meant to say "Southeast area of the east coast"

Still, why do you think it would be a SE coast threat like FL, GA, or SC with the model trends?

This isnt a SE coast storm, time to move on from that theory,hope or whatever it is, not happening regardless of a little south or west trend the next few days...north carolina and north, maybe. Southwest Florida will not have any direct effects from Lee. Enjoy the lower dewpoints and good weather in SW Florida.

seems like an overly bold statement more than 10 days out...Lee is unlikely to hit the SE coast but not definite in any sense of the word

[AutoPenalti]

Some people may have forgotten:

a) how far this is from mainland US
and
b) how slow this is going

Let's focus on the Caribbean first.

GEFS has a couple of members hitting SFL already.

[cheezyWXguy]

Still, why do you think it would be a SE coast threat like FL, GA, or SC with the model trends?

This isnt a SE coast storm, time to move on from that theory,hope or whatever it is, not happening regardless of a little south or west trend the next few days...north carolina and north, maybe. Southwest Florida will not have any direct effects from Lee. Enjoy the lower dewpoints and good weather in SW Florida.

I'm not gonna say it's likely a SE storm, because that's not a favored pattern. That said just look at the GFS 7 days out. Models become unskilled fast past this point. I don't think it's reasonable to rule out the Southeast just yet. There's good reason the NHC cone only goes out 5 days.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230906/5edf5554d4d5e84979948aa0f0a27e34.jpg

This is a good point. It’s definitely less likely that anything south of the Carolinas would take a direct impact here, but I still wouldn’t rule it out. I genuinely wonder where the fish bandwagoners are getting their confidence from, because the gfs runs don’t instill a lot of confidence yet in me. Even the runs that miss are an extremely close call, and more importantly, the 500mb setup in 7+ days is still showing a good deal of run to run variation.

I’m not going to post a map, but y’all should go take a look at the 12z gefs. The first camp darts northward, a second camp hangs out a little longer and passes near the east coast, and a few trailing members present a greater threat. If anything, the spread may have actually increased over the last few runs beyond day 7, highlighting continued uncertainty in the timing and evolution of the trough.

The storm and the setup are going to eventually do what they do, regardless of what one hopes for, and the ultimate outcome can’t be accurately forecast yet. This isn’t politics where something becomes true if it gets repeated enough times.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Some people may have forgotten how:
a) how far this is from mainland US
and
b) how slow this is going

Let's focus on the Caribbean first.

GEFS has a couple of members hitting SFL already.

You cannot currently rule out entire areas for landfall probability when they have multiple ensemble members hitting them.

example

[aspen]

12z HAFS-B is absolutely insane. 160 kt and 898 mbar on Sunday night.

[ElectricStorm]

HAFS-B 12z peaks at 162kts/897mb...

[Ianswfl]

Some people may have forgotten how:
a) how far this is from mainland US
and
b) how slow this is going

Let's focus on the Caribbean first.

GEFS has a couple of members hitting SFL already.

You cannot currently rule out entire areas for landfall probability when they have multiple ensemble members hitting them.

example
https://imgur.com/50NOOLJ

Yea, just saw that. A nasty, cat4 member hitting southern Fl and riding up SWFL like Irma did and another member is a cat1. Euro enesembles last night also had some tracks bending back.

It seems the slower this moves the more west it might go. The wave behind it might also become powerful and tug on it, slowing it down some are talking about.

[LarryWx]

Still too much uncertainty in the long term to feel too safe about Bermuda, Atlantic Canada, and the NE US. I still wouldn't necessarily say there is no threat for the Turks and Caicos and eastern Bahamas either... only takes a somewhat stronger ridge.

If anything, the risk to Bermuda is increasing. But the risk to the NE US, after a bit of a concern largely based on the far left UKMET, has dropped somewhat from how it looked earlier. Hopefully future UKMETs will not go back as far left as they were. However, I'm still maintaining a small risk of landfall to the NE US because we're still 9 or so days out...too long to give an all clear.

Well if Larry Wx says the Northeast is safe, it must be!

I obviously said nothing of the sort. Look at what you quoted. I said that the risk to the NE has "dropped somewhat" based on the 0Z UKMET's track's 200 mile E shift vs yesterday's 12Z run but that I'm still keeping a "small risk of landfall" due to how far out in time it is. So, nowhere did I say anything about them being "safe".

[ThunderForce]

The 12z GEFS members that go into South FL seem to perform a southwestward motion for about a day's time (12z to 12z) before returning to a west/west-northwestward movement that leads to landfalling in that location.

[SFLcane]

Some people may have forgotten:

a) how far this is from mainland US
and
b) how slow this is going

Let's focus on the Caribbean first.

GEFS has a couple of members hitting SFL already.

Crazy members...

[REDHurricane]

Whew

[jlauderdal]

Still, why do you think it would be a SE coast threat like FL, GA, or SC with the model trends?

This isnt a SE coast storm, time to move on from that theory,hope or whatever it is, not happening regardless of a little south or west trend the next few days...north carolina and north, maybe. Southwest Florida will not have any direct effects from Lee. Enjoy the lower dewpoints and good weather in SW Florida.

I'm not gonna say it's likely a SE storm, because that's not a favored pattern. That said just look at the GFS 7 days out. Models become unskilled fast past this point. I don't think it's reasonable to rule out the Southeast just yet. There's good reason the NHC cone only goes out 5 days.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230906/5edf5554d4d5e84979948aa0f0a27e34.jpg

Fortunately, the gfs isnt all we have to look at, if this storm makes landfall south of cape hatteress, 10lbs of crow for me..if this was a Florida threat or anything close to it, this board would be on fire, too many people on this forum with too much experience to miss that as a reasonable scenario including yours truly...recon will start feeding the models and hopefully that will put the SE coast idea where it belongs...in the meantime, make sure you are ready wherever you are located.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z UKMET is similar to the 0Z and thus the ~200 mile E shift of today's 0Z vs yesterday's more ominous 12Z was maintained. Regardless, I maintain there's still a chance for the NE US to be hit albeit a small chance. When I say small, I mean something like 20%, which is nothing to take lightly as they're nowhere near safe at this point. Although the highest % of Euro ens members hitting the NE US so far is 10%, I'm still at double that due to how far out in time it still is.

At 168, the 12Z UKMET has Lee ~250 miles NE of the SE Bahamas moving NNW:

TROPICAL STORM LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 44.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.09.2023 0 13.7N 44.8W 1003 43
0000UTC 07.09.2023 12 15.3N 46.6W 1002 43
1200UTC 07.09.2023 24 16.3N 49.3W 1000 41
0000UTC 08.09.2023 36 17.0N 51.8W 1000 40
1200UTC 08.09.2023 48 17.7N 54.6W 997 55
0000UTC 09.09.2023 60 18.3N 57.0W 997 52
1200UTC 09.09.2023 72 19.1N 59.3W 997 53
0000UTC 10.09.2023 84 19.7N 61.1W 997 55
1200UTC 10.09.2023 96 20.0N 63.1W 994 57
0000UTC 11.09.2023 108 20.6N 64.4W 994 53
1200UTC 11.09.2023 120 20.9N 65.6W 994 53
0000UTC 12.09.2023 132 21.7N 66.8W 991 56
1200UTC 12.09.2023 144 22.6N 67.3W 985 50
0000UTC 13.09.2023 156 23.4N 68.4W 978 52
1200UTC 13.09.2023 168 24.2N 68.9W 973 61

[toad strangler]

This isnt a SE coast storm, time to move on from that theory,hope or whatever it is, not happening regardless of a little south or west trend the next few days...north carolina and north, maybe. Southwest Florida will not have any direct effects from Lee. Enjoy the lower dewpoints and good weather in SW Florida.

I'm not gonna say it's likely a SE storm, because that's not a favored pattern. That said just look at the GFS 7 days out. Models become unskilled fast past this point. I don't think it's reasonable to rule out the Southeast just yet. There's good reason the NHC cone only goes out 5 days.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230906/5edf5554d4d5e84979948aa0f0a27e34.jpg

Fortunately, the gfs isnt all we have to look at, if this storm makes landfall south of cape hatteress, 10lbs of crow for me..if this was a Florida threat or anything close to it, this board would be on fire, too many people on this forum with too much experience to miss that as a reasonable scenario including yours truly...recon will start feeding the models and hopefully that will put the SE coast idea where it belongs...in the meantime, make sure you are ready wherever you are located.

The only thing set in stone is a re-curve. It's the when and where that aint! So the next step for me is climatology. That implies a re-curve east of the Mid Atlantic and SE Us coasts. It would take some gnarly anomalous ridging to putt Lee all the way to FL. Hopefully the Lesser and Greater A's are off the hook here because ya, they are 1st and 2nd up.

[mantis83]

I'm not gonna say it's likely a SE storm, because that's not a favored pattern. That said just look at the GFS 7 days out. Models become unskilled fast past this point. I don't think it's reasonable to rule out the Southeast just yet. There's good reason the NHC cone only goes out 5 days.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230906/5edf5554d4d5e84979948aa0f0a27e34.jpg

Fortunately, the gfs isnt all we have to look at, if this storm makes landfall south of cape hatteress, 10lbs of crow for me..if this was a Florida threat or anything close to it, this board would be on fire, too many people on this forum with too much experience to miss that as a reasonable scenario including yours truly...recon will start feeding the models and hopefully that will put the SE coast idea where it belongs...in the meantime, make sure you are ready wherever you are located.

The only thing set in stone is a re-curve. It's the when and where that aint! So the next step for me is climatology. That implies a re-curve east of the Mid Atlantic and SE Us coasts. It would take some gnarly anomalous ridging to putt Lee all the way to FL. Hopefully the Lesser and Greater A's are off the hook here because ya, they are 1st and 2nd up.

agreed!