ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#541 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 06, 2023 7:48 pm

Up to 70 kt.

AL, 13, 2023090700, , BEST, 0, 152N, 471W, 70, 989, HU


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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#542 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Sep 06, 2023 7:54 pm

Woah… the eye just started clearing, at least for the moment. Little bit of an odd appearance with it coming through on the western side of the cdo
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#543 Postby WalterWhite » Wed Sep 06, 2023 7:56 pm

cycloneye wrote:Up to 70 kt.

AL, 13, 2023090700, , BEST, 0, 152N, 471W, 70, 989, HU


Intensification has been slow thus far, but that is forecast to change.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#544 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 06, 2023 8:17 pm

WalterWhite wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Up to 70 kt.

AL, 13, 2023090700, , BEST, 0, 152N, 471W, 70, 989, HU


Intensification has been slow thus far, but that is forecast to change.

It’s following the HAFS-A/B pretty well. A tiny bit of shear is preventing a symmetrical eyewall from forming, but over the next 24 hours, shear will drop and Lee’s core will rapidly improve.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#545 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 06, 2023 8:18 pm

Outflow looked better earlier today
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#546 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 06, 2023 8:23 pm

Anti-cyclone has positioned north of the eyewall accounting for the disruption in outflow
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#547 Postby Blown Away » Wed Sep 06, 2023 8:45 pm

GCANE wrote:Anti-cyclone has positioned north of the eyewall accounting for the disruption in outflow


12z Euro was 949 mb at 90 hrs, 18z was 968 mb. Maybe models backing off a little from insane Cat 5…
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#548 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 06, 2023 8:46 pm

GCANE wrote:Anti-cyclone has positioned north of the eyewall accounting for the disruption in outflow


When will it move to a more favorable position?
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#549 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Sep 06, 2023 8:49 pm

Blown Away wrote:
GCANE wrote:Anti-cyclone has positioned north of the eyewall accounting for the disruption in outflow


12z Euro was 949 mb at 90 hrs, 18z was 968 mb. Maybe models backing off a little from insane Cat 5…


the 18z about 10 knots below the nhc forecast for hwrf, tvcn and such models. I don't think conditions will be quite as favorable. Could it be strong? Yes, but not irma or isabel level.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#550 Postby Meteorcane » Wed Sep 06, 2023 9:10 pm

I wouldn't extrapolate much on the future intensity peak of Lee based on its current structure. Even if is only marginally stronger in about 30-36 hours, assuming there isn't anything really unforeseen structurally inhibiting it (shouldn't be much environmentally inhibiting it) it should be able to deepen pretty rapidly if not explosively (dependent upon the core structure obviously) at that point. I could easily see an increase from like an 80ish kt hurricane tomorrow night, to a 120-125kt hurricane within about 30 hours. I will say it is very difficult to forecast EWRCs and other inner core dynamics so differentiating between say a 125 and 140kt peak (or like 910 vs 930mb) is not super skillful as of yet. Although the hurricane models offer tantalizing promise in that area.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#551 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Sep 06, 2023 9:10 pm

Image

Pretty solid on track forecast so far.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#552 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Sep 06, 2023 9:12 pm

Meteorcane wrote:I wouldn't extrapolate much on the future intensity peak of Lee based on its current structure. Even if is only marginally stronger in about 30-36 hours, assuming there isn't anything really unforeseen structurally inhibiting it (shouldn't be much environmentally inhibiting it) it should be able to deepen pretty rapidly if not explosively (dependent upon the core structure obviously) at that point. I could easily see an increase from like an 80ish kt hurricane tomorrow night, to a 120-125kt hurricane within about 30 hours. I will say it is very difficult to forecast EWRCs and other inner core dynamics so differentiating between say a 125 and 140kt peak (or like 910 vs 930mb) is not super skillful as of yet. Although the hurricane models offer tantalizing promise in that area.


I agree, I don’t think the current structure is all that important for future development. Once it starts firing there won’t be a lot in its way.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#553 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Sep 06, 2023 9:45 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2023

...LEE FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE BY
FRIDAY...
...LARGE OCEAN SWELLS LIKELY TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES, THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 47.7W
ABOUT 1035 MI...1665 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#554 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Sep 06, 2023 9:54 pm

New NHC forecast has a 135kt peak
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#555 Postby hohnywx » Wed Sep 06, 2023 9:58 pm

From the 11 PM discussion for our friends in the islands:

The track model envelope continues to indicate that the
core of Lee will pass to the north of the northern Leeward
Islands. However, interests in those islands should continue to
monitor Lee's forecasts as the typical three-day NHC track error is
about 90 n mi, and the northernmost Leeward Islands currently have
a 1-in-4 chance of experiencing sustained tropical-storm-force
winds on the southern side of the storm.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#556 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Sep 06, 2023 10:03 pm

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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#557 Postby ThunderForce » Wed Sep 06, 2023 10:05 pm


It could be my eyes playing tricks on me but it almost looks like Lee made a N/NW jog at the end of this radar loop.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#558 Postby msbee » Wed Sep 06, 2023 10:08 pm

hohnywx wrote:From the 11 PM discussion for our friends in the islands:

The track model envelope continues to indicate that the
core of Lee will pass to the north of the northern Leeward
Islands. However, interests in those islands should continue to
monitor Lee's forecasts as the typical three-day NHC track error is
about 90 n mi, and the northernmost Leeward Islands currently have
a 1-in-4 chance of experiencing sustained tropical-storm-force
winds on the southern side of the storm.


I just saw this. I guess we are still not out of the woods
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#559 Postby IsabelaWeather » Wed Sep 06, 2023 10:13 pm

ThunderForce wrote:

It could be my eyes playing tricks on me but it almost looks like Lee made a N/NW jog at the end of this radar loop.



I dont see it, cant really rely on IR to tell stuff like that unless there is an eye.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#560 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 06, 2023 10:34 pm

For our friends in the northern Leewards, BVI, USVI and PR.

1. Lee is forecast to become a major hurricane by early Friday,
with its core moving north of the northern Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend into early next week.
There is the potential for tropical storm conditions to occur on
some of these islands over the weekend, and interests there should
monitor future updates to Lee's forecast.

2. Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of the
Lesser Antilles on Friday, and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Bermuda this weekend.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.
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