ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Up to 70 kt.

AL, 13, 2023090700, , BEST, 0, 152N, 471W, 70, 989, HU

[cheezyWXguy]

Woah… the eye just started clearing, at least for the moment. Little bit of an odd appearance with it coming through on the western side of the cdo

[WalterWhite]

Up to 70 kt.

AL, 13, 2023090700, , BEST, 0, 152N, 471W, 70, 989, HU

Intensification has been slow thus far, but that is forecast to change.

[aspen]

Up to 70 kt.

AL, 13, 2023090700, , BEST, 0, 152N, 471W, 70, 989, HU

Intensification has been slow thus far, but that is forecast to change.

It’s following the HAFS-A/B pretty well. A tiny bit of shear is preventing a symmetrical eyewall from forming, but over the next 24 hours, shear will drop and Lee’s core will rapidly improve.

[GCANE]

Outflow looked better earlier today

[GCANE]

Anti-cyclone has positioned north of the eyewall accounting for the disruption in outflow

[Blown Away]

Anti-cyclone has positioned north of the eyewall accounting for the disruption in outflow

12z Euro was 949 mb at 90 hrs, 18z was 968 mb. Maybe models backing off a little from insane Cat 5…

[cycloneye]

Anti-cyclone has positioned north of the eyewall accounting for the disruption in outflow

When will it move to a more favorable position?

[Sciencerocks]

Anti-cyclone has positioned north of the eyewall accounting for the disruption in outflow

12z Euro was 949 mb at 90 hrs, 18z was 968 mb. Maybe models backing off a little from insane Cat 5…

the 18z about 10 knots below the nhc forecast for hwrf, tvcn and such models. I don't think conditions will be quite as favorable. Could it be strong? Yes, but not irma or isabel level.

[Meteorcane]

I wouldn't extrapolate much on the future intensity peak of Lee based on its current structure. Even if is only marginally stronger in about 30-36 hours, assuming there isn't anything really unforeseen structurally inhibiting it (shouldn't be much environmentally inhibiting it) it should be able to deepen pretty rapidly if not explosively (dependent upon the core structure obviously) at that point. I could easily see an increase from like an 80ish kt hurricane tomorrow night, to a 120-125kt hurricane within about 30 hours. I will say it is very difficult to forecast EWRCs and other inner core dynamics so differentiating between say a 125 and 140kt peak (or like 910 vs 930mb) is not super skillful as of yet. Although the hurricane models offer tantalizing promise in that area.

[eastcoastFL]

Pretty solid on track forecast so far.

[eastcoastFL]

I wouldn't extrapolate much on the future intensity peak of Lee based on its current structure. Even if is only marginally stronger in about 30-36 hours, assuming there isn't anything really unforeseen structurally inhibiting it (shouldn't be much environmentally inhibiting it) it should be able to deepen pretty rapidly if not explosively (dependent upon the core structure obviously) at that point. I could easily see an increase from like an 80ish kt hurricane tomorrow night, to a 120-125kt hurricane within about 30 hours. I will say it is very difficult to forecast EWRCs and other inner core dynamics so differentiating between say a 125 and 140kt peak (or like 910 vs 930mb) is not super skillful as of yet. Although the hurricane models offer tantalizing promise in that area.

I agree, I don’t think the current structure is all that important for future development. Once it starts firing there won’t be a lot in its way.

[ElectricStorm]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2023

...LEE FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE BY
FRIDAY...
...LARGE OCEAN SWELLS LIKELY TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES, THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 47.7W
ABOUT 1035 MI...1665 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES

[ElectricStorm]

New NHC forecast has a 135kt peak

[hohnywx]

From the 11 PM discussion for our friends in the islands:

The track model envelope continues to indicate that the
core of Lee will pass to the north of the northern Leeward
Islands. However, interests in those islands should continue to
monitor Lee's forecasts as the typical three-day NHC track error is
about 90 n mi, and the northernmost Leeward Islands currently have
a 1-in-4 chance of experiencing sustained tropical-storm-force
winds on the southern side of the storm.

[Sciencerocks]

[ThunderForce]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/3496/UPGDQR.gif

It could be my eyes playing tricks on me but it almost looks like Lee made a N/NW jog at the end of this radar loop.

[msbee]

From the 11 PM discussion for our friends in the islands:

The track model envelope continues to indicate that the
core of Lee will pass to the north of the northern Leeward
Islands. However, interests in those islands should continue to
monitor Lee's forecasts as the typical three-day NHC track error is
about 90 n mi, and the northernmost Leeward Islands currently have
a 1-in-4 chance of experiencing sustained tropical-storm-force
winds on the southern side of the storm.

I just saw this. I guess we are still not out of the woods

[IsabelaWeather]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/3496/UPGDQR.gif

It could be my eyes playing tricks on me but it almost looks like Lee made a N/NW jog at the end of this radar loop.

I dont see it, cant really rely on IR to tell stuff like that unless there is an eye.

[cycloneye]

For our friends in the northern Leewards, BVI, USVI and PR.

1. Lee is forecast to become a major hurricane by early Friday,
with its core moving north of the northern Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend into early next week.
There is the potential for tropical storm conditions to occur on
some of these islands over the weekend, and interests there should
monitor future updates to Lee's forecast.

2. Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of the
Lesser Antilles on Friday, and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Bermuda this weekend.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.