ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion: Forecast to be Cat 5

#721 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Thu Sep 07, 2023 1:41 pm

Very warm eye. Remember, in this basin it is common that eye temperature is more indicative of strength than CDO temperature.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion: Forecast to be Cat 5

#722 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 07, 2023 1:41 pm

That was MUCH earlier than I expected

AF305 Mission #1 into LEE
Type: Unknown | Status: In Progress
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion: Forecast to be Cat 5

#723 Postby KirbyDude25 » Thu Sep 07, 2023 1:44 pm

Iceresistance wrote:That was MUCH earlier than I expected

AF305 Mission #1 into LEE
Type: Unknown | Status: In Progress

I believe that's the upper-level mission. The lower-level one takes off around 5 PM Eastern and will arrive at Lee's center about 2.5 hours after
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion: Forecast to be Cat 5

#724 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 07, 2023 1:45 pm

KirbyDude25 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:That was MUCH earlier than I expected

AF305 Mission #1 into LEE
Type: Unknown | Status: In Progress

I believe that's the upper-level mission. The lower-level one takes off around 5 PM Eastern and will arrive at Lee's center about 2.5 hours after

Well, that is going to be plugged into the models with the dropsondes.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion: Forecast to be Cat 5

#725 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Sep 07, 2023 1:47 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
KirbyDude25 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:That was MUCH earlier than I expected

AF305 Mission #1 into LEE
Type: Unknown | Status: In Progress

I believe that's the upper-level mission. The lower-level one takes off around 5 PM Eastern and will arrive at Lee's center about 2.5 hours after

Well, that is going to be plugged into the models with the dropsondes.


Probably the 0z runs and a few on the 18z runs
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion: Forecast to be Cat 5

#726 Postby KirbyDude25 » Thu Sep 07, 2023 1:48 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
KirbyDude25 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:That was MUCH earlier than I expected

AF305 Mission #1 into LEE
Type: Unknown | Status: In Progress

I believe that's the upper-level mission. The lower-level one takes off around 5 PM Eastern and will arrive at Lee's center about 2.5 hours after

Well, that is going to be plugged into the models with the dropsondes.

Guess I misunderstood a bit, sorry. The TCPOD did say that an upper-level mission would leave around this time; I think I just misinterpreted your reaction somewhat. Looking forward to the results of both missions.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion: Forecast to be Cat 5

#727 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 07, 2023 1:49 pm

KirbyDude25 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:That was MUCH earlier than I expected

AF305 Mission #1 into LEE
Type: Unknown | Status: In Progress

I believe that's the upper-level mission. The lower-level one takes off around 5 PM Eastern and will arrive at Lee's center about 2.5 hours after


What I have is a survellance flight now and then at 5 PM goes the one to do the fixes.

FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 74 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 75
A. 08/0000Z A. 07/2330Z,08/0530Z
B. AFXXX 0113A LEE B. AFXXX 0213A LEE
C. 07/1730Z C. 07/2100Z
D. NA D. 16.6N 52.2W
E. NA E. 07/2300Z TO 08/0530Z
F. 24,000 FT TO 32,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion: Forecast to be Cat 5

#728 Postby MarioProtVI » Thu Sep 07, 2023 1:49 pm

AL, 13, 2023090718, , BEST, 0, 166N, 507W, 105, 961, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 20, 20, 1011, 250, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LEE, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 027,


Cat 3
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion Update: 18z Best Track up to Cat 3, 105 kt

#729 Postby Teban54 » Thu Sep 07, 2023 1:59 pm

Even on 1-min floaters, the rate of intensification is incredible.
Image
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion Update: 18z Best Track up to Cat 3, 105 kt

#730 Postby WalterWhite » Thu Sep 07, 2023 2:03 pm

We now have Major Hurricane Lee. It is official.

AL, 13, 2023090718, , BEST, 0, 166N, 507W, 105, 961, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 20, 20, 1011, 250, 15, 130, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LEE, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 027,
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion Update: 18z Best Track up to Cat 3, 105 kt

#731 Postby kevin » Thu Sep 07, 2023 2:05 pm

WalterWhite wrote:We now have Major Hurricane Lee. It is official.

AL, 13, 2023090718, , BEST, 0, 166N, 507W, 105, 961, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 20, 20, 1011, 250, 15, 130, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LEE, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 027,


If they go 105 kt that would be a very impressive 35 kt intensification in 12 hours. Note that the RI requirement is only 30 kt in 24 hours so this is far beyond that.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion Update: 18z Best Track up to Cat 3, 105 kt

#732 Postby TorSkk » Thu Sep 07, 2023 2:07 pm

Dvorak from SAB at constrained 5.5

A. 13L (LEE)

B. 07/1800Z

C. 16.6N

D. 50.7W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T5.5/5.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...A WMG EYE SURROUNDED AND EMBEDDED IN B YIELDS A DT OF
6.5. THE MET IS 5.0 DUE TO 24 HOUR RAPID DEVELOPMETN TREND. THE PT IS
5.5. RAPID DEVELOPMENT 6-HOUR AVERAGING RESULTS IN A DT OF 5.8 WHICH
DOES NOT JUSTIFY BREAKING THE CONSTRAINTS THAT THE T-NO CANNOT CHANGE
BY MORE THAT 1.0 OVER 6 HOURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BROWN
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion Update: 18z Best Track up to Cat 3, 105 kt

#733 Postby kevin » Thu Sep 07, 2023 2:18 pm

Centre region temp is 18.4C and is already approaching the highest value Jova ever had (20.3C). Raw T# also already up to 6.6 now. We're really seeing the most impressive RI of both the EPAC and the NATL in years on the same day :double:. What are the chances.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion Update: 18z Best Track up to Cat 3, 105 kt

#734 Postby bob rulz » Thu Sep 07, 2023 2:22 pm

I think even 105kts is an underestimate. We'll know for sure in about 4 hours?
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion Update: 18z Best Track up to Cat 3, 105 kt

#735 Postby rickcorvin » Thu Sep 07, 2023 2:24 pm

kevin wrote:
WalterWhite wrote:We now have Major Hurricane Lee. It is official.

AL, 13, 2023090718, , BEST, 0, 166N, 507W, 105, 961, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 20, 20, 1011, 250, 15, 130, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LEE, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 027,


If they go 105 kt that would be a very impressive 35 kt intensification in 12 hours. Note that the RI requirement is only 30 kt in 24 hours so this is far beyond that.
Lee met the RI requirement yesterday, apparently met it today, and is forecast to meet it again over the next 24 hours. Maybe someone can run a query to see when a storm rapidly intensified in three consecutive 24 hour periods.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion Update: 18z Best Track up to Cat 3, 105 kt

#736 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Sep 07, 2023 2:29 pm

Cdo starting to uniformly cool now. W band all the way around the center with wmg in the eye on Dvorak. Jova’s transformation yesterday was amazing, but Lee’s is keeping right up there with it.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion Update: 18z Best Track up to Cat 3, 105 kt

#737 Postby Charleswachal » Thu Sep 07, 2023 2:34 pm

This is absolutely incredible. Looks like a Cat 4 already. Does take time for the winds to catch up but it is definitely rapidly intensifying
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion Update: 18z Best Track up to Cat 3, 105 kt

#738 Postby Meteorcane » Thu Sep 07, 2023 2:35 pm

Well not much to add here, but to say... Wow what a marked change in structure in only the last 12-15 hours! Honestly I expected only gradual organization today, with the real RI occurring tonight into tomorrow. This shows the internal structure was likely further along than many of us thought yesterday/last night despite the ragged IR structure. This view is at least partially supported by the fact that the microwave passes yesterday showed a pretty good and established core structure (better than what you would expect looking at IR and vis). Will be interesting to see the intensity trajectory over the next 5 days... environment obviously not a problem with low shear, high OHC, and a most low-mid lvls, so any intensity ups and downs will likely be driven primarily by EWRCs.

Let's all also be thankful this didn't end up being a NE Carib direct threat (obviously swells, surf, rips, etc notwithstanding).
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion Update: 18z Best Track up to Cat 3, 105 kt

#739 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 07, 2023 2:35 pm

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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion Update: 18z Best Track up to Cat 3, 105 kt

#740 Postby dpep4 » Thu Sep 07, 2023 2:37 pm

Charleswachal wrote:This is absolutely incredible. Looks like a Cat 4 already. Does take time for the winds to catch up but it is definitely rapidly intensifying


Perhaps upgrade the name to Hurricane Lee Majors at the next update.
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