ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[zal0phus]

Alright folks, time to get those guesses in... what's recon about to find?

Since I always seem to overestimate these "what will recon find" predictions, I'm going with a conservative 120 kts and 941 mb- with the only rational being the winds haven't caught up to the structure yet- but they will by morning...

130 kt and 934 mb. I feel like the pressure will lag behind the wind somewhat

[Sciencerocks]

Alright folks, time to get those guesses in... what's recon about to find?

Since I always seem to overestimate these "what will recon find" predictions, I'm going with a conservative 120 kts and 941 mb- with the only rational being the winds haven't caught up to the structure yet- but they will by morning...

943mb's, 131knots at flight level, 124knots smrf. First pass through northeastern quad.

[Iceresistance]

I'm going with recon finding 125kt and 922mb. Recon should be starting their descent here shortly...just passed 55w

My thoughts are with these brave souls flying into this storm, I read the account of a recon with Irma (I think) that almost took them
down. Pretty f'ing scary!!!!

Unfortunately, one of the recon missions into Janet in '55 didn't turn out that way.

Yeah, I heard that story, thankfully, the planes are stronger now compared to the 1950s.

But, a very sad story.

[eastcoastFL]

Alright folks, time to get those guesses in... what's recon about to find?

Since I always seem to overestimate these "what will recon find" predictions, I'm going with a conservative 120 kts and 941 mb- with the only rational being the winds haven't caught up to the structure yet- but they will by morning...

127kts 934mb

[mitchell]

Alright folks, time to get those guesses in... what's recon about to find?

Since I always seem to overestimate these "what will recon find" predictions, I'm going with a conservative 120 kts and 941 mb- with the only rational being the winds haven't caught up to the structure yet- but they will by morning...

115 kt winds, 945 mb.

[verruckt]

A lot of posters, news media, etc. trying to go with definite on recurves or impacts need to pay attention to this from the 5PM discussion:

Confidence remains high in the track for Lee, with almost no change
made to the NHC track forecast. Lee should continue moving
west-northwestward along the southern edge of the subtropical ridge
for the next 5 days. The ridge is forecast to gradually weaken by
early next week, causing Lee to slow down. This track should keep
the core of Lee and its damaging winds north of the Leeward Islands.
There is uncertainty in any northward turn of Lee beginning early
next week, but it is too soon to speculate about specific potential
impacts a week or more out.

No one, again, not even computer models know what this storm is going to do a week from now. We need all the recon data, soundings, etc. ingested into models that we can get, and that still has yet to happen.

[USTropics]

Where can I find this GIF?

It's from WeatherNerds

Yeah, I checked the site.
I believe it's behind a paywall, unfortunately.

Anyone know of other free resources?

It's not behind a paywall, Matt Onderlinde runs WeatherNerds (https://twitter.com/weathernerds?lang=en).

You can get to the main satellite feed here - https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite

You can get the full Atlantic view here - https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/?initsatsrc=On&initsatname=GOES-E&initsattype=ir&initcscheme=ir1&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=583&initrange=50.000:-103.000:0:5.000&initloop=False&initnframes=20&initlightningge=On&initlightninggw=Off&initltngfed=Off&initltngtoe=Off&initinterstates=On&initwarnings=On&initlatlon=Off&initascatb=Off&initascatc=Off&initascatambb=Off&initascatambc=Off&initsst=Off&initecens=Off&initgefs=Off

You can create a zoomed in view by drawing a box over the link above, then create a loop:
https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/?initsatsrc=On&initsatname=GOES-E&initsattype=ir&initcscheme=ir1&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=780&initrange=22.750:-58.000:9.750:-41.250&initloop=True&initnframes=20&initlightningge=On&initlightninggw=Off&initltngfed=Off&initltngtoe=Off&initinterstates=On&initwarnings=On&initlatlon=Off&initascatb=Off&initascatc=Off&initascatambb=Off&initascatambc=Off&initsst=Off&initecens=Off&initgefs=Off

[dukeblue219]

Alright folks, time to get those guesses in... what's recon about to find?

Since I always seem to overestimate these "what will recon find" predictions, I'm going with a conservative 120 kts and 941 mb- with the only rational being the winds haven't caught up to the structure yet- but they will by morning...

I'll be the contrarian: 940mb, 135kt flight level, 99kt SFMR

[InfernoFlameCat]

Alright folks, time to get those guesses in... what's recon about to find?

Since I always seem to overestimate these "what will recon find" predictions, I'm going with a conservative 120 kts and 941 mb- with the only rational being the winds haven't caught up to the structure yet- but they will by morning...

just to be that guy, I'm going 923mb 140 knots.

[eastcoastFL]

[aspen]

Alright folks, time to get those guesses in... what's recon about to find?

Since I always seem to overestimate these "what will recon find" predictions, I'm going with a conservative 120 kts and 941 mb- with the only rational being the winds haven't caught up to the structure yet- but they will by morning...

I’m going to be a bit conservative and say 120-125 kt (blended estimate from FL+SFMR) and 935-945 mbar. But I won’t be shocked if I’m 10-15 kt and mbar too weak.

[Abdullah]

It's from WeatherNerds

Yeah, I checked the site.
I believe it's behind a paywall, unfortunately.

Anyone know of other free resources?

It's not behind a paywall, Matt Onderlinde runs WeatherNerds (https://twitter.com/weathernerds?lang=en).

You can get to the main satellite feed here - https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite

You can get the full Atlantic view here - https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/?initsatsrc=On&initsatname=GOES-E&initsattype=ir&initcscheme=ir1&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=583&initrange=50.000:-103.000:0:5.000&initloop=False&initnframes=20&initlightningge=On&initlightninggw=Off&initltngfed=Off&initltngtoe=Off&initinterstates=On&initwarnings=On&initlatlon=Off&initascatb=Off&initascatc=Off&initascatambb=Off&initascatambc=Off&initsst=Off&initecens=Off&initgefs=Off

You can create a zoomed in view by drawing a box over the link above, then create a loop:
https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/?initsatsrc=On&initsatname=GOES-E&initsattype=ir&initcscheme=ir1&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=780&initrange=22.750:-58.000:9.750:-41.250&initloop=True&initnframes=20&initlightningge=On&initlightninggw=Off&initltngfed=Off&initltngtoe=Off&initinterstates=On&initwarnings=On&initlatlon=Off&initascatb=Off&initascatc=Off&initascatambb=Off&initascatambc=Off&initsst=Off&initecens=Off&initgefs=Off

Dang! Thanks man

Looks like we got some new lightning anyway

What do you all reckon the rate of intensification is in millibars per hour?

[Sciencerocks]

[IsabelaWeather]

If this is another warm-eye overperformance, the Dvorak estimates might need to look at greater eye adjustments. After all, comparing Dorian to Eta (very warm eye with mostly W vs. sub-freezing eye with CDG), you'd think looking at it on conventional satellite, Eta was much stronger when in reality Dorian was the stronger storm.

Only time will tell.

Yeah, eye is getting very warm and uniform, but we simply won't get a DT higher than 7.0 as I don't believe a CMG ring is possible here. So basically Dvorak is maxed out with Lee, unless we base on MET

Why is it that the CDO maxes out around -75C in the NATL, at similar latitudes to the WPAC that gets a complete ring of -80-(-90) could tops?

[Chris90]

Alright folks, time to get those guesses in... what's recon about to find?

Since I always seem to overestimate these "what will recon find" predictions, I'm going with a conservative 120 kts and 941 mb- with the only rational being the winds haven't caught up to the structure yet- but they will by morning...

My guess: 928mb and 152kts peak at flight level for 135-140 at surface estimate.

Microwave looks just like Dorian when he was peaking. I just don't think Lee has had quite enough time to get there yet.

[Iceresistance]

My goodness!


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgXcg.jpg

[Beef Stew]

My goodness!

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgXcg.jpg
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgXcg.jpg

Reminiscent of Dorian.

[dukeblue219]

Ten minutes to go, folks. One more dataset.

[USTropics]

SW to NE pass incoming:

[galaxy401]

Get the popcorn ready everyone.