ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[dukeblue219]

Why is recon data not updating?

It happens. They're in the middle of the Atlantic in the most powerful storm on the planet at the moment. Not unusual (perhaps even common) to have delayed reports or dropped data points.

No cause for alarm

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I hope that pass didn't cause damage to the recon's ability to transmit. They were having pretty wild fluctuations in altitude there.

[verruckt]

I feel we're about to see history being made... and lessons being learned...

[wx98]

Winds at 934mb are 34 kt so maybe the drop was something like 936/25 or 936/30, which would support 930-932 mbar, right?

That would support about 933 mb at the surface.

That would follow the trend of the NOAA planes being about 4-5 MB too low on the extrapolations. Still 20 MB lower than the 5 pm advisory…

But this is an AF plane…

[Chris90]

Dropsonde: 936 mb, uncertain winds.

There is a ridge to the north and high background pressures so winds will be stronger than expected for that pressure (936 usually means about 125 kt).

Winds at 934mb are 34 kt so maybe the drop was something like 936/25 or 936/30, which would support 930-932 mbar, right?

That would support about 933 mb at the surface.

That drop looked to me like it was close to the edge of the eye and not in the center. With a tight pressure gradient and the 928mb extrap, I would guess the pressure is closer to 930mb.

[jlauderdal]

Aaaand recon is having transmission issues. Worst timing

More comms problems, incredible

[ElectricStorm]

Recon is back but it's missing a set

[aspen]

We’re back. Data is starting to show up on TT.

[dukeblue219]

Aaaand recon is having transmission issues. Worst timing

More comms problems, incredible

They're in a category 4 or 5 hurricane's eye at low level a thousand miles from home. What are we expecting?

Transmissions have resumed in any case.

[zzzh]

FL 148kt

[CrazyC83]

FL 148kt

Enough confidence to blend it to 140 kt there.

[aspen]

I’m guessing no special advisory?

[Sciencerocks]

I'd say that 148knt flight level with the 144knt smrf is enough to upgrade to a cat5!

[TorSkk]

I’m guessing no special advisory?

Maybe a small update in a few minutes?

[Hammy]

Guessing they find a Cat 5 on the next pass, given they went through a weaker quadrant

[WalterWhite]

148 kt fight level winds support an upgrade to 135 kt, just shy of a Category V storm.

[jlauderdal]

Aaaand recon is having transmission issues. Worst timing

More comms problems, incredible

They're in a category 4 or 5 hurricane's eye at low level a thousand miles from home. What are we expecting?

Transmissions have resumed in any case.

If they say it was because of the intense system, I will certainly accept that. Hopefully its a safe flight.

[eastcoastFL]

I’m guessing no special advisory?

Might wait for the next pass

[Sciencerocks]

I'd lean on the smrf and go 140knts.

[zzzh]

Beautiful