ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Beef Stew]

Given the reluctance to put a lot of weight on SFMR without equivalent FL winds, I don't think this is enough for the NHC to pull the trigger... yet. But blended we're there, and I think operationally we'll have category 5 Lee by the time this mission has made a few more passes.

[Iceresistance]

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgXgb.png

[Teban54]

Has the issue with SFMR inflation at high intensities been resolved yet? I seem to recall that some time after the 2021 season, there was a study or report stating that SFMR has been "fixed' following recent research.

If that's the case, it will increase the reliability of SFMR readings here.

[chaser1]

Just insane. Lee has potentially gone from TS to Cat 5 in 30 hours. Anyone know if that would be a record?

[ThunderForce]

On satellite it looks like Lee is finally starting to cross 17°N.

[zzzh]

Just insane. Lee has potentially gone from TS to Cat 5 in 30 hours. Anyone know if that would be a record?

I think it took 54h but still insanely fast.

[Weather Watcher]

Just insane. Lee has potentially gone from TS to Cat 5 in 30 hours. Anyone know if that would be a record?

I think it took 54h but still insanely fast.

Wilma holds the record for rapid intensification
In October 2005, Wilma rocketed from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in 24 hours, according to the hurricane center's post-storm rep

[zzzh]

Just insane. Lee has potentially gone from TS to Cat 5 in 30 hours. Anyone know if that would be a record?

I think it took 54h but still insanely fast.

Wilma holds the record for rapid intensification
In October 2005, Wilma rocketed from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in 24 hours, according to the hurricane center's post-storm rep

I think you need to count from the time it got upgraded to a TS

[Weather Watcher]

I think it took 54h but still insanely fast.

Wilma holds the record for rapid intensification
In October 2005, Wilma rocketed from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in 24 hours, according to the hurricane center's post-storm rep

I think you need to count from the time it got upgraded to a TS

According to google

[Jelmergraaff]

Dropsonde NE-Eyewall has 134 kt at the surface (944 mb) but 152 kt at 939 mb.
Edit: And 180 kts at 918 mb (for what it's worth).

[chaser1]

Just insane. Lee has potentially gone from TS to Cat 5 in 30 hours. Anyone know if that would be a record?

I think it took 54h but still insanely fast.

Wilma holds the record for rapid intensification
In October 2005, Wilma rocketed from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in 24 hours, according to the hurricane center's post-storm rep

"Wilma by a nose" (er, eye)! This was 1500 (11:00 am yesterday):

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2023

...LEE CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...LIKELY TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MAJOR
HURRICANE BY SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 45.5W
ABOUT 1200 MI...1930 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES

While still unofficial, that would put Lee closely behind Wilma at 35 hr's.

[GCANE]

The eye drop showed 74% RH at 850mb.
It looks to be drying out,
If trend continues to show lower RH on subsequent eye drops, may be an indicator for an onset EWRC.
Look for mesovorts in the eye to confirm.

[Iceresistance]

Dropsonde NE-Eyewall has 134 kt at the surface (944 mb) but 152 kt at 939 mb.

There is a 180 knot at 918 mb


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgXgd.png

[AJC3]

I’m guessing no special advisory?

Maybe a small update in a few minutes?

Given the forecast track, they wouldn't issue a special advisory in a case like this. Perhaps a Tropical Cyclone Update (TCUAT_) if they felt it was warranted.

[eastcoastFL]

[Chris90]

The 180kt gust at 918mb is only about 250m above the surface, so with strong convection I would imagine it's not having too much trouble mixing to the surface. I'd go with the SFMR and set the intensity at 145kts here.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

In case it wasn't posted, 155mph and 933mb at 8pm EDT Thursday for best track data.

AL, 13, 2023090800, , BEST, 0, 170N, 518W, 135, 933, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 30, 20, 30, 1011, 180, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LEE, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 027,

[GCANE]

Center of anti-cyclone is 310 miles south of CoC.
UL winds are opposing direction of travel roughly 90 degrees.
Will run into some shear.

[Coolcruiseman]

Little late to the party. My guess is the “official” after recon is going to be 925 mb with 140 knots.

[BlowHard]

Dropsonde NE-Eyewall has 134 kt at the surface (944 mb) but 152 kt at 939 mb.
Edit: And 180 kts at 918 mb (for what it's worth).

Where do you see 180 knots?