Ianswfl wrote:chaser1 wrote:My mind keeps going back to both the HAFS A & B hurricane models from yesterday as well as today. Not to say that the EURO and GFS did not pick up on such a forecasted pattern at 120 hr's, but both hurricane model's resolution depicting Lee practically catching up to what appeared to be a newly developed H5 centered around the Florida Straits. A couple of days ago I believed that nearly every model was depicting a deep southwesterly flow as Lee approached 65W-70W as a result of the strong shortwave into the N GOM by next Tue. On both regional models however, it appeared as if the trough had turned full negative with basically slack winds over the E. Gulf instead and northerly steering just to the east of a building H5. Assuming "IF" Lee were slightly further south & west by next Monday, then it would appear that the only dominent steering would practically be northerly under this newly bridged or established H5 anticyclone. Seemingly like the prior H5 that was building west along with the WNW forward motion of Lee, is nearly "handing -off" Lee to a new or weaker level ridge to the southwest. To me, that set-up might imply a SW motion into Cuba. Timing of course would dictate whether this might reflect a sharpening trough allowing Lee to split some weakness along an existant NE/SW angled ridge and turn NNW as forecast.... OR possibly reflect the negatively tilted trough energy pulling out with mid level heights quickly filling in its wake? If none of the above ever transpires though and simply leaving Lee to drift for days well east of the Bahamas, a deeper trough looks to eventually enter the picture by later next week to sweep Lee northward (if still in the neighborhood). Anyhow, the odd tone of NHC's 5:00pm discussion left me pondering the thought.
Actually, a few GFS ensembles members and Euro ensembles members had the SW motion into Cuba, or just north of it a couple days ago. Euro ensembles shifted way north, but the 18z euro ensembles are trending a lot further south than 12z and too showing bending like Hafs B.
Perhaps a little ensemble windshield wiper affect? Time (and model support) will tell
