ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Lee has now formed a feeder band.
Not seen previously.
Looks like coming from the east Carib.
High OHC water there creating a high TPW feed.

So, LEE now has two aerial feeds, and a direct water feed as well.
Moving into a well structured anticyclonic wave brake.
Not much to hold Lee back from reintenstification.

[aspen]

It’s still remarkable how poorly forecast this burst of shear was and how impactful it ended up being. Great call the other night GCANE.

[GCANE]

It’s still remarkable how poorly forecast this burst of shear was and how impactful it ended up being. Great call the other night GCANE.

Much thanks Aspen

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/tropicalupdate/status/1700451509958254685

[Teban54]

Lee is intensifying again. The eye is back, and it's wasting no time pumping out -90C convective bursts. Looks like there could still be some N or NE shear (don't quote me on that) as that side of the CDO is a bit thin, but it's well ahead of schedule as the NHC didn't expect shear to abate or for Lee to reintensify for another 24 hours.
https://i.postimg.cc/Vvvt5q76/goes16-ir-13-L-202309090705.gif

Looks like that didn't last long before they got blasted off by shear again. Eye no longer seen on IR.

[aspen]

Pressure is down on the first pass from the NOAA plane. 956/38 eye drop. There’s also more support for major hurricane winds this time.

[cycloneye]

After 12 hours eye not being closed, is now.

URNT12 KWBC 091044
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132023
A. 09/10:13:18Z
B. 19.89 deg N 057.57 deg W
C. 700 MB 2761 m
D. 956 mb
E. 090 deg 38 kt
F. CLOSED
G. E09/5/2
H. 89 kt
I. 230 deg 6 nm 10:11:44Z
J. 326 deg 90 kt
K. 230 deg 7 nm 10:11:27Z
L. 100 kt
M. 060 deg 6 nm 10:14:45Z
N. 143 deg 103 kt
O. 061 deg 8 nm 10:15:13Z
P. 14 C / 3096 m
Q. 23 C / 2840 m
R. 18 C / NA
S. 124 / 7
T. 0.01 / 2 nm
U. NOAA3 0713A LEE OB 05
RAGGED EYE
MAX FL WIND 103 KT 061 / 8 NM 10:15:13Z
MAX FL TEMP 25 C 231 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR

[GCANE]

Eye Character: Closed
Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 90° to 270° (E to W)
Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 5 nautical miles
Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 2 nautical miles

[GCANE]

Relatively dry eye drop. pinhole eye, cloud tops warming.
Probability of EWRC going up

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... leERC.html

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/tropicalupdate/status/1700451509958254685

AF just avoided the eye and NOAA has already left after just one pass, so I guess the strong mesovorts are still a problem.

[ChrisH-UK]

30 min loop of Lee Geo Colour and IR. Seeing a burst of convection happening and a lot of lightning happening could be intensifimg.

Source - https://col.st/O2brc

[cycloneye]

Hopefully, all is fine with the crew of the NOAA plane that has left with only one pass. Air Force plane is there.

[InfernoFlameCat]

That shear is taking a serious toll on the hurricane. It looks like it’s dropped below major hurricane status.

[cycloneye]

Still cat 3.

AL, 13, 2023090912, , BEST, 0, 200N, 578W, 100, 954, HU

[WeatherBoy2000]

It still looks like a mess on satellite but the weakening trend has stopped. The fact that it is now down below 960mb again might be a sign that it is trying to reorganize again.

[aspen]

That shear is taking a serious toll on the hurricane. It looks like it’s dropped below major hurricane status.

It’s actually stronger than last night. Recon found pressures in the low-mid 950s, about 10mb lower than the final overnight passes. It sure looks like a train wreck on visible, though.

[GCANE]

Margot is creating a poleward outflow channel for Lee
The more Margot strengthens the better the ventilation for Lee

[cheezyWXguy]

At a time on Thursday Lee was about the best looking cat2 I’ve ever seen, and now it’s about the ugliest cat3 I’ve ever seen. Just goes to show the value of recon.

I haven’t seen any mw passes in a while, but vis imagery suggests an outer eyewall has wrapped around most of the core, except maybe to the south where the shear is coming from. If so, I wouldn’t expect any strengthening today until the inevitable ERC completes, but I do think the weakening has stopped.

[WalterWhite]

Based on recon so far, Lee could possibly be a Category I hurricane.

[Kazmit]

IR presentation looked a lot better last night but now it looks like crap again.