ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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GCANE
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1441 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 09, 2023 4:29 am

Lee has now formed a feeder band.
Not seen previously.
Looks like coming from the east Carib.
High OHC water there creating a high TPW feed.

So, LEE now has two aerial feeds, and a direct water feed as well.
Moving into a well structured anticyclonic wave brake.
Not much to hold Lee back from reintenstification.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1442 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 09, 2023 4:55 am

It’s still remarkable how poorly forecast this burst of shear was and how impactful it ended up being. Great call the other night GCANE.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1443 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 09, 2023 5:23 am

aspen wrote:It’s still remarkable how poorly forecast this burst of shear was and how impactful it ended up being. Great call the other night GCANE.


Much thanks Aspen
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1444 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 09, 2023 5:24 am

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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1445 Postby Teban54 » Sat Sep 09, 2023 5:33 am

Teban54 wrote:Lee is intensifying again. The eye is back, and it's wasting no time pumping out -90C convective bursts. Looks like there could still be some N or NE shear (don't quote me on that) as that side of the CDO is a bit thin, but it's well ahead of schedule as the NHC didn't expect shear to abate or for Lee to reintensify for another 24 hours.
https://i.postimg.cc/Vvvt5q76/goes16-ir-13-L-202309090705.gif

Looks like that didn't last long before they got blasted off by shear again. Eye no longer seen on IR.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1446 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 09, 2023 5:49 am

Pressure is down on the first pass from the NOAA plane. 956/38 eye drop. There’s also more support for major hurricane winds this time.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1447 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 09, 2023 5:59 am

After 12 hours eye not being closed, is now.

URNT12 KWBC 091044
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132023
A. 09/10:13:18Z
B. 19.89 deg N 057.57 deg W
C. 700 MB 2761 m
D. 956 mb
E. 090 deg 38 kt
F. CLOSED
G. E09/5/2
H. 89 kt
I. 230 deg 6 nm 10:11:44Z
J. 326 deg 90 kt
K. 230 deg 7 nm 10:11:27Z
L. 100 kt
M. 060 deg 6 nm 10:14:45Z
N. 143 deg 103 kt
O. 061 deg 8 nm 10:15:13Z
P. 14 C / 3096 m
Q. 23 C / 2840 m
R. 18 C / NA
S. 124 / 7
T. 0.01 / 2 nm
U. NOAA3 0713A LEE OB 05
RAGGED EYE
MAX FL WIND 103 KT 061 / 8 NM 10:15:13Z
MAX FL TEMP 25 C 231 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1448 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 09, 2023 6:05 am

Eye Character: Closed
Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 90° to 270° (E to W)
Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 5 nautical miles
Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 2 nautical miles
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1449 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 09, 2023 6:18 am

Relatively dry eye drop. pinhole eye, cloud tops warming.
Probability of EWRC going up

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... leERC.html
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1450 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 09, 2023 7:02 am


AF just avoided the eye and NOAA has already left after just one pass, so I guess the strong mesovorts are still a problem.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1451 Postby ChrisH-UK » Sat Sep 09, 2023 7:14 am

30 min loop of Lee Geo Colour and IR. Seeing a burst of convection happening and a lot of lightning happening could be intensifimg.

Source - https://col.st/O2brc

Image
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1452 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 09, 2023 7:17 am

Hopefully, all is fine with the crew of the NOAA plane that has left with only one pass. Air Force plane is there.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1453 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Sep 09, 2023 7:42 am

That shear is taking a serious toll on the hurricane. It looks like it’s dropped below major hurricane status.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1454 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 09, 2023 7:44 am

Still cat 3.

AL, 13, 2023090912, , BEST, 0, 200N, 578W, 100, 954, HU
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1455 Postby WeatherBoy2000 » Sat Sep 09, 2023 7:57 am

It still looks like a mess on satellite but the weakening trend has stopped. The fact that it is now down below 960mb again might be a sign that it is trying to reorganize again.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1456 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 09, 2023 8:11 am

InfernoFlameCat wrote:That shear is taking a serious toll on the hurricane. It looks like it’s dropped below major hurricane status.

It’s actually stronger than last night. Recon found pressures in the low-mid 950s, about 10mb lower than the final overnight passes. It sure looks like a train wreck on visible, though.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1457 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 09, 2023 8:13 am

Margot is creating a poleward outflow channel for Lee
The more Margot strengthens the better the ventilation for Lee
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1458 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Sep 09, 2023 8:33 am

At a time on Thursday Lee was about the best looking cat2 I’ve ever seen, and now it’s about the ugliest cat3 I’ve ever seen. Just goes to show the value of recon.

I haven’t seen any mw passes in a while, but vis imagery suggests an outer eyewall has wrapped around most of the core, except maybe to the south where the shear is coming from. If so, I wouldn’t expect any strengthening today until the inevitable ERC completes, but I do think the weakening has stopped.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1459 Postby WalterWhite » Sat Sep 09, 2023 8:43 am

Based on recon so far, Lee could possibly be a Category I hurricane.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1460 Postby Kazmit » Sat Sep 09, 2023 8:51 am

IR presentation looked a lot better last night but now it looks like crap again.
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