ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[tolakram]

Ocean heat content map. I'm using the equivalent map here which is a little more extreme, but honestly not sure which one to use. Regardless, as Lee moves north, depending on where it moves, heat will run out.



source: http://isotherm.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/weba/atlantic.php

[Ntxw]

I like to use the UW site after clicking the storm, then choosing SST (Reynolds dataset.) Lee roughly has 48 hours of ideal OHC, once that north movement is in then it will quickly (picks up speed) hit cooler waters at the same time will start merging with trough.



http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

[aspen]

the inner eyewall is almost gone on VIS now.

Nope, it’s flaring up a lot now.

[cycloneye]

the inner eyewall is almost gone on VIS now.

Nope, it’s flaring up a lot now.

Air force plane will arrive soon to verifie.

[bohai]

I haven't seen any correlations to Sandy raking the east coast. To me seems eerily similar albeit further north. However the topography of Maine and New Brunswick is considerably different for storm surge. It seems with the rocky coastline, that tides surges would be pushed up even higher as they cannot spread out like they do along the gulf coast. Is that a valid assumption?

[ElectricStorm]

Nice new burst on the north side, we'll see if it can wrap around

[cheezyWXguy]

This is the inner eyewall’s last gasp. This seems to be be common in more significant ERCs. I wonder if it either results in further delay, or “functions” to sharpen the pressure gradient or constrict the outer eyewall before it takes over the the inner falls away. Any insight from someone who knows more about ERCs is appreciated.

[sicktght311]

Looks like a new eye is trying to reform on IR and Satellite. Lets see if this one holds together

[brad512]

Wondering if a storm surge scenario were to potentially occur up here due to the track how Chignecto region would fare, if the surge would actually funnel all the way up the bay to here. I'm currently in the Tantramar area, I'm not too worried about power outages for me personally even if wind was still a problem because I'm only half a kilometer from the substation and held power during Fiona, but seeing a surge could be a sticky situation especially considering this is marshland.

I believe this area was inudated with surge about 150 years ago so it's possible for it to funnel up to here, the TransCanada freeway also crosses here so that's a major transportation link to NS.

[aspen]

The first eyewall penetration by the latest AF plane shows that the outer eyewall is significantly stronger than the stubborn inner eyewall. The extrap pressure seems to be around 945 mb.

[Teban54]

The first eyewall penetration by the latest AF plane shows that the outer eyewall is significantly stronger than the stubborn inner eyewall. The extrap pressure seems to be around 945 mb.

GOES image is running behind and stuck at 1655z on both Tropical Tidbits and Weather Nerds, so it's quite possible that significant structural changes happened during the 2 hours before recon that made the outer eyewall take over.

[REDHurricane]

[cheezyWXguy]

https://media4.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExY3NzY3ExNWxodm0yNmZjaDR1MTd2ZHM2NDEwMWJ6M3htaHoxdW83biZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/iVrEax0ftrJTUVTh3l/giphy.gif

https://media4.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExdzMybDFvbjYyMHQwZDBqbHhtandkbTBpaHluZWUyNHJ1anA0NjNzcyZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/EjPVQYW3cwruzgB9uv/giphy.gif

Inner eyewall hanging on for dear life but it won’t be long now

[Sciencerocks]

[ScottNAtlanta]

Has anyone seen the buoys that recon has dropped that measure the temperature of the surface water and how far down it is to the 26c isotherm? I just noticed it on mission 16. The 2 drops had depth of 26c water at 75 meters and 97 meters. Is that something new? I don't remember ever seeing it.

[cycloneye]

No more forecast of being again cat 4.

INIT 11/2100Z 23.6N 64.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 24.0N 65.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 24.6N 66.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 25.3N 66.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 26.5N 67.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 28.3N 67.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 30.3N 67.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 35.4N 67.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 40.8N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1701341913989923192

[zal0phus]

No more forecast of being again cat 4.

INIT 11/2100Z 23.6N 64.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 24.0N 65.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 24.6N 66.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 25.3N 66.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 26.5N 67.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 28.3N 67.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 30.3N 67.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 35.4N 67.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 40.8N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

Strong Larry 2021 influence

[IcyTundra]

Wow this thread is pretty dead I guess it’s because the track is pretty locked into Atlantic Canada or New England.