2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[Ianswfl]

https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1704146760510181394?t=vC-Dc12-X0HvpWvZ8V7zYA&s=19

I don't know what I'm looking at.

It's showing rising motion in the Atlantic and America's starting in October. Generally that would be favorable and not El ninoish. It seems pretty reasonable considering the absolute warmth of the Atlantic right now. The basin has finally started cooling (In large part thanks to all the Hurricanes taking a chunk out), but we are crazily enough currently still warmer than any other season's peak warmth.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230920/50d5b73e557612a9453af7856231859a.jpg

The areas that matter in the Atlantic in October are still boiling warm! The Gulf will cool a bit due to the clouds and the front but will still be above average by october standards.

[WeatherBoy2000]

 https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1704547189127864544




Important to consider going into next year. For right now, shear in the Caribbean is below average despite the intensifying el nino:

 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1704494126593450245

[WalterWhite]

https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1704547189127864544

Important to consider going into next year. For right now, shear in the Caribbean is below average despite the intensifying el nino:

https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1704494126593450245

The Atlantic seems to be completely oblivious to the fact that there is a likely-to-be Strong El Niño in the Pacific right now. The God of the Atlantic seems to have been unable to adjust its Caribbean wind shear to appropriate levels for an El Niño.

[WeatherBoy2000]

https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1704547189127864544

Important to consider going into next year. For right now, shear in the Caribbean is below average despite the intensifying el nino:

https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1704494126593450245

The Atlantic seems to be completely oblivious to the fact that there is a likely-to-be Strong El Niño in the Pacific right now. The God of the Atlantic seems to have been unable to adjust its Caribbean wind shear to appropriate levels for an El Niño.

It's because the tropical Atlantic isn't really much cooler than the enso anomaly-wise. When contrasting the anomalies between the enso and tropical Atlantic, it is more like warm neutral/weak el nino than a strong one. A strong el nino would normally be well over 1c warmer than the Atlantic, not 0.5ish at most.



The expanse of really warm tropical waters is much greater in the Atlantic than epac.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1704547189127864544

Important to consider going into next year. For right now, shear in the Caribbean is below average despite the intensifying el nino:

https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1704494126593450245

The Atlantic seems to be completely oblivious to the fact that there is a likely-to-be Strong El Niño in the Pacific right now. The God of the Atlantic seems to have been unable to adjust its Caribbean wind shear to appropriate levels for an El Niño.

It's because the tropical Atlantic isn't really much cooler than the enso anomaly-wise. When contrasting the anomalies between the enso and tropical Atlantic, it is more like warm neutral/weak el nino than a strong one. A strong el nino would normally be well over 1c warmer than the Atlantic, not 0.5ish at most.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_sst_global_1.png

The expanse of really warm tropical waters is much greater in the Atlantic than epac.

Good point there. There might be a formidable El Nino, but it's clear that the Atlantic has more areas that are simply warmer, raw temperature-wise, than the EPAC. This might be one of the main reasons why this El Nino seems to be doing jack squat in really limiting Atlantic activity.

[LarryWx]

The Atlantic seems to be completely oblivious to the fact that there is a likely-to-be Strong El Niño in the Pacific right now. The God of the Atlantic seems to have been unable to adjust its Caribbean wind shear to appropriate levels for an El Niño.

It's because the tropical Atlantic isn't really much cooler than the enso anomaly-wise. When contrasting the anomalies between the enso and tropical Atlantic, it is more like warm neutral/weak el nino than a strong one. A strong el nino would normally be well over 1c warmer than the Atlantic, not 0.5ish at most.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_sst_global_1.png

The expanse of really warm tropical waters is much greater in the Atlantic than epac.

Good point there. There might be a formidable El Nino, but it's clear that the Atlantic has more areas that are simply warmer, raw temperature-wise, than the EPAC. This might be one of the main reasons why this El Nino seems to be doing jack squat in really limiting Atlantic activity.

El Niño hasn’t limited activity, but I think as I’ve said before that El Niño has resulted in a weak mean Bermuda High/WAR. Instead of an Azores-Bermuda High, it has been just an Azores High. By having a weak Bermuda High, there has been only one TC that moved W or WNW west of 74W so far this season with no end in sight yet (ignoring 18Z fantasy garbage). This has helped to protect the CONUS to sone extent.

[WalterWhite]

WeatherTiger is now extremely bearish for the rest of the season:



WeatherTiger is only forecasting 17-19 storms, 8-9 hurricanes, 3-4 major hurricanes, and 148 ACE. What is causing this sudden bearishness?

[WeatherBoy2000]

WeatherTiger is now extremely bearish for the rest of the season:

https://i.postimg.cc/KYnZ9YHj/https-substack-post-media-s3-amazonaws-com-public-images-7d6497ac-6502-4878-a448-611d3a3e6be5-2141.png

WeatherTiger is only forecasting 17-19 storms, 8-9 hurricanes, 3-4 major hurricanes, and 148 ACE. What is causing this sudden bearishness?

Activity has slowed quite significantly since late August into early September. Only one storm (Nigel) has formed in the last two week and has only produced 9 ace units since its formation. WeatherTiger's model has adjusted accordingly to this lack of output.

[Ianswfl]

WeatherTiger is now extremely bearish for the rest of the season:

https://i.postimg.cc/KYnZ9YHj/https-substack-post-media-s3-amazonaws-com-public-images-7d6497ac-6502-4878-a448-611d3a3e6be5-2141.png

WeatherTiger is only forecasting 17-19 storms, 8-9 hurricanes, 3-4 major hurricanes, and 148 ACE. What is causing this sudden bearishness?

Activity has slowed quite significantly since late August into early September. Only one storm (Nigel) has formed in the last two week and has only produced 9 ace units since its formation. WeatherTiger's model has adjusted accordingly to this lack of output.

hardly any Caribbean or Gulf activity this year. An uneventful season overall. Everything in the open atl and north atl.

I'm thinking next year is the big season for US landfalls.

[Ubuntwo]

WeatherTiger is now extremely bearish for the rest of the season:
WeatherTiger is only forecasting 17-19 storms, 8-9 hurricanes, 3-4 major hurricanes, and 148 ACE. What is causing this sudden bearishness?

Sudden bearishness? Extremely bearish? They're forecasting another 2-3 hurricanes and +30 ACE - putting us well into above average territory. I would wager the decrease from 'borderline hyperactive' is an ERCing Lee and Nigel recurving more quickly than models expected (reduced ACE output). We also have the MJO moving towards the maritime continent and WPAC.

[Ubuntwo]

WeatherTiger is now extremely bearish for the rest of the season:

WeatherTiger is only forecasting 17-19 storms, 8-9 hurricanes, 3-4 major hurricanes, and 148 ACE. What is causing this sudden bearishness?

Activity has slowed quite significantly since late August into early September. Only one storm (Nigel) has formed in the last two week and has only produced 9 ace units since its formation. WeatherTiger's model has adjusted accordingly to this lack of output.

hardly any Caribbean or Gulf activity this year. An uneventful season overall. Everything in the open atl and north atl.

I'm thinking next year is the big season for US landfalls.

I suspect the extremely active past 6 or so years for the US has infected some with a 'landfall fever'. This pace of activity isn't really normal - it was not too long ago we went 12 years without a major landfall. Granted, some on this board may be too young to remember. Did we not have a major hurricane landfall in the US just a month ago?

[WeatherBoy2000]

WeatherTiger is now extremely bearish for the rest of the season:

https://i.postimg.cc/KYnZ9YHj/https-substack-post-media-s3-amazonaws-com-public-images-7d6497ac-6502-4878-a448-611d3a3e6be5-2141.png

WeatherTiger is only forecasting 17-19 storms, 8-9 hurricanes, 3-4 major hurricanes, and 148 ACE. What is causing this sudden bearishness?

Activity has slowed quite significantly since late August into early September. Only one storm (Nigel) has formed in the last two week and has only produced 9 ace units since its formation. WeatherTiger's model has adjusted accordingly to this lack of output.

hardly any Caribbean or Gulf activity this year. An uneventful season overall. Everything in the open atl and north atl.

I'm thinking next year is the big season for US landfalls.

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1704895230829355215




Hopefully this continues but it looks like October is going to remain rather favorable throughout the Caribbean/mdr. As CV season comes to a close, 60W into the Caribbean is where climo should favor intense activity (this assumes that you can trust climo this year). I won't be surprised if another disturbance or two tries to get going there despite the strong el nino.

[galaxy401]

WeatherTiger is now extremely bearish for the rest of the season:

https://i.postimg.cc/KYnZ9YHj/https-substack-post-media-s3-amazonaws-com-public-images-7d6497ac-6502-4878-a448-611d3a3e6be5-2141.png

WeatherTiger is only forecasting 17-19 storms, 8-9 hurricanes, 3-4 major hurricanes, and 148 ACE. What is causing this sudden bearishness?

Activity has slowed quite significantly since late August into early September. Only one storm (Nigel) has formed in the last two week and has only produced 9 ace units since its formation. WeatherTiger's model has adjusted accordingly to this lack of output.

Uhhh no. Two hurricanes have formed in the past two weeks and we have two more disturbances to watch with one likely to become another hurricane. Slowed down significantly is simply not true.

[WeatherBoy2000]

WeatherTiger is now extremely bearish for the rest of the season:

https://i.postimg.cc/KYnZ9YHj/https-substack-post-media-s3-amazonaws-com-public-images-7d6497ac-6502-4878-a448-611d3a3e6be5-2141.png

WeatherTiger is only forecasting 17-19 storms, 8-9 hurricanes, 3-4 major hurricanes, and 148 ACE. What is causing this sudden bearishness?

Activity has slowed quite significantly since late August into early September. Only one storm (Nigel) has formed in the last two week and has only produced 9 ace units since its formation. WeatherTiger's model has adjusted accordingly to this lack of output.

Uhhh no. Two hurricanes have formed in the past two weeks and we have two more disturbances to watch with one likely to become another hurricane. Slowed down significantly is simply not true.

I wasn't talking about actual activity, I was explaining why WeatherTiger's ace output took such a plunge recently. From Gert to Margot (Aug 19th-Sept 7th) at least one storm would form every few days, however since then only Nigel has formed. The last 2 weeks have been quieter compared to that very active period.

[Ianswfl]

Activity has slowed quite significantly since late August into early September. Only one storm (Nigel) has formed in the last two week and has only produced 9 ace units since its formation. WeatherTiger's model has adjusted accordingly to this lack of output.

hardly any Caribbean or Gulf activity this year. An uneventful season overall. Everything in the open atl and north atl.

I'm thinking next year is the big season for US landfalls.

https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1704895230829355215

Hopefully this continues but it looks like October is going to remain rather favorable throughout the Caribbean/mdr. As CV season comes to a close, 60W into the Caribbean is where climo should favor intense activity (this assumes that you can trust climo this year). I won't be surprised if another disturbance or two tries to get going there despite the strong el nino.

but the Caribbean for an active season has been a graveyard basically. Seems a lot drier than most years as well. While the waters down there are warmer than normal there just isnt much energy down there. So far the models look dead there into Oct.

Also the big gap in major landfalls was luck! Hurricane Ike had it been 90 miles north would have been a mega disaster for the US. Major hurricane for the Florida Keys and a strong cat4 into the Houston area. it would been epic.

[tolakram]

Waves developed and moved north, nothing unusual. Weather Tiger needs to put some smoothing on those predictions, otherwise it will bounce up and down, much like this thread.

[IcyTundra]

hardly any Caribbean or Gulf activity this year. An uneventful season overall. Everything in the open atl and north atl.

I'm thinking next year is the big season for US landfalls.

https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1704895230829355215

Hopefully this continues but it looks like October is going to remain rather favorable throughout the Caribbean/mdr. As CV season comes to a close, 60W into the Caribbean is where climo should favor intense activity (this assumes that you can trust climo this year). I won't be surprised if another disturbance or two tries to get going there despite the strong el nino.

but the Caribbean for an active season has been a graveyard basically. Seems a lot drier than most years as well. While the waters down there are warmer than normal there just isnt much energy down there. So far the models look dead there into Oct.

Also the big gap in major landfalls was luck! Hurricane Ike had it been 90 miles north would have been a mega disaster for the US. Major hurricane for the Florida Keys and a strong cat4 into the Houston area. it would been epic.

Very true Ike was bad enough as it was but no where close to what a worse case scenario what look like for the Houston/Galveston area. South Florida and Houston/Galveston have been very lucky with major hurricanes over these last several decades. There hasn't been a major hurricane landfall in Galvestion since 1983 with Alicia and for Southeast Florida they haven't been hit from the east with a major since Jeanne in 2004.

[Teban54]

hardly any Caribbean or Gulf activity this year. An uneventful season overall. Everything in the open atl and north atl.

I'm thinking next year is the big season for US landfalls.

https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1704895230829355215

Hopefully this continues but it looks like October is going to remain rather favorable throughout the Caribbean/mdr. As CV season comes to a close, 60W into the Caribbean is where climo should favor intense activity (this assumes that you can trust climo this year). I won't be surprised if another disturbance or two tries to get going there despite the strong el nino.

but the Caribbean for an active season has been a graveyard basically. Seems a lot drier than most years as well. While the waters down there are warmer than normal there just isnt much energy down there. So far the models look dead there into Oct.

Also the big gap in major landfalls was luck! Hurricane Ike had it been 90 miles north would have been a mega disaster for the US. Major hurricane for the Florida Keys and a strong cat4 into the Houston area. it would been epic.

Even if you ignore the two Caribbean geneses (Franklin and Idalia, both of which became majors later), the relatively quiet Caribbean is more of a result of waves moving further north before even reaching there (due to the weak Bermuda high), rather than hostile conditions in the Caribbean itself. An August CAG genesis certainly doesn't scream hostile to me.

In 2020, the only hurricane in the Caribbean up to September was Cat 1 Nana. We all know what happened in October and November. (Not saying 2023 will be a repeat)

And FWIW, models looked dead in mid-August just before Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harold and Idalia formed.

[al78]

Very true Ike was bad enough as it was but no where close to what a worse case scenario what look like for the Houston/Galveston area. South Florida and Houston/Galveston have been very lucky with major hurricanes over these last several decades. There hasn't been a major hurricane landfall in Galvestion since 1983 with Alicia and for Southeast Florida they haven't been hit from the east with a major since Jeanne in 2004.

As destructive as Ian was last year I still think Florida somewhat dodged a bullet. Had Ian followed earlier predictions and tracked further north, it could have sent a huge storm surge into Tampa Bay which would probably be much worse in terms of damage and death toll than what actually happened, bearing in mind Tampa has not had a major storm surge event for a long time and residents have no experience of such an event.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1704927968223432744



 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1704931582962790438