2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[LarryWx]

[quote="LarryWx"]12Z Euro says “Ridge Over Troubled Water” part two late next week with a second big (actually stronger) NE US surface high:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 012&fh=216[/quote]

Is JB copying my posts? I beat him to the punch by 4 hours :

Per JB on X:
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... ref_url%3D

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I think that another home brew under the next big NE high late next week is much more likely than the 18Z GFS idea of that storm coming all the way to the CONUS. There’s no room for both and the 18Z GFS is an extreme outlier considering its own ensemble, other models, and climo. A home brew under a big and strong high OTOH wouldn’t be.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro says “Ridge Over Troubled Water” part two late next week with a second big (actually stronger) NE US surface high:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 012&fh=216

Is JB copying my posts? I beat him to the punch by 4 hours :

Per JB on X:
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... ref_url%3D

—————————
I think that another home brew under the next big NE high late next week is much more likely than the 18Z GFS idea of that storm coming all the way to the CONUS. There’s no room for both and the 18Z GFS is an extreme outlier considering its own ensemble, other models, and climo. A home brew under a big and strong high OTOH wouldn’t be.”

JB hugs the euro until the GFS shows something exciting. GFS has already flipped to a recurve, with Bermuda once again having to keep an eye on it. Any specific track on the GFS past 120 hours is almost always verifiably wrong, and when it's right I don't think it's anything but an accident. GFS needs a big improvement on longer range upper air predictions.

[Ianswfl]

00z gfs ensembles just started but its showing some cag time possibly about to begin on sept 28th!

[Ianswfl]

06z euro ensembles have a bunch of weak members in the western carribean. Will be interesting to see the full 12z suite that goes out to 366hr

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET, like the 12Z GFS and even the 12Z ICON to a lesser extent, has ridge over troubled waters part 2:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 31.1N 80.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.09.2023 156 30.8N 80.4W 1005 34
1200UTC 29.09.2023 168 32.2N 78.1W 1005 30

[Ianswfl]

12Z UKMET, like the 12Z GFS and even the 12Z ICON to a lesser extent, has ridge over troubled waters part 2:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 31.1N 80.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.09.2023 156 30.8N 80.4W 1005 34
1200UTC 29.09.2023 168 32.2N 78.1W 1005 30

12z gefs has a strong cat1 member into ft. Myers basically exactly one year aniv of ian! Seems gefs picking up and cag time possibly.

[Ianswfl]

The 06z gfs ensembles getting kinda active for swfl next friday with a number of members with ts landfalls. Nothing atrong though, looks like a sloppy cag system.

[Ianswfl]

12z enembles a bit stronger signal now for the eastern gulf system. Operational shows a bit more moisute this run in the area as well.

[LarryWx]

12z enembles a bit stronger signal now for the eastern gulf system. Operational shows a bit more moisute this run in the area as well.

Indeed. This is continued risk of ridge over troubled waters pt 2 with model consensus suggesting higher than avg TCG chance either NW Car, E GOM or SW Atlantic late next week underneath strong high in SE Can/NE US. 5 of 31 12Z GEFS have strong TS to H.

[AnnularCane]

12z enembles a bit stronger signal now for the eastern gulf system. Operational shows a bit more moisute this run in the area as well.

Eastern Gulf system?

[SFLcane]

[Ianswfl]

https://i.postimg.cc/kGJvxB8y/IMG-7640.png

The 12z also a bit stronger as well. A cat2 970s in the mix too into swfl.

You think it will be a sloppy system like irene 1999 or a set up for an ian like system?

[AnnularCane]

https://i.postimg.cc/kGJvxB8y/IMG-7640.png

Oh, THAT eastern Gulf system. I swear I don't remember any mention of it at all until now.

(Looks like a toddler got ahold of some felt-tip pens!)

[Category5Kaiju]

With how weak the high has been this year, with us getting closer to CAG season with extremely warm (30-31 C) waters widespread across the Gulf and the Caribbean, and with the EPAC not really showing signs of significantly heightened activity in the near future...keep a weary eye out folks.

[Ianswfl]

With how weak the high has been this year, with us getting closer to CAG season with extremely warm (30-31 C) waters widespread across the Gulf and the Caribbean, and with the EPAC not really showing signs of significantly heightened activity in the near future...keep a weary eye out folks.

You mean another ian, michael, or idalia maybe?

[Category5Kaiju]

With how weak the high has been this year, with us getting closer to CAG season with extremely warm (30-31 C) waters widespread across the Gulf and the Caribbean, and with the EPAC not really showing signs of significantly heightened activity in the near future...keep a weary eye out folks.

You mean another ian, michael, or idalia maybe?

I really hope not, but hope alone won't change what the season's future holds. I think at this point in time, given how unusual this season has been behaving contrary to Nino standards, I can't trust that this season will just end or die down next month.

[Ubuntwo]

With how weak the high has been this year, with us getting closer to CAG season with extremely warm (30-31 C) waters widespread across the Gulf and the Caribbean, and with the EPAC not really showing signs of significantly heightened activity in the near future...keep a weary eye out folks.

You mean another ian, michael, or idalia maybe?

Only Michael was a true CAG genesis. The only thing those three storms have in common is a Florida impact. Also consider a track curving east of FL is favored in a Niño, tho it needs to start behaving like one first!

By the time CAGs start forming the MJO may be out of phase, so epac-side development could be favored. I think we’re a little overdue (maybe just -removed- here ). That said. AEWs can develop in the west basin through November, so anything that doesn’t develop right away will have to be watched

[emeraldislenc]

Can someone give a good definition or the meaning of ridge over troubled water. Just need some clarification.
Thanks!

[psyclone]

Can someone give a good definition or the meaning of ridge over troubled water. Just need some clarification.
Thanks!

A ridge up north often = falling pressures down south with an attendant increasing risk of cyclogenesis...the same ridge can serve as a blocking feature increasing the risk that any storm that develops can pose a higher risk of eventual land entanglement..

[Ianswfl]

!8z gfs stronger. Now shows a weak sheared TD forming late next week. Then at end of the run develops a tropical storm down there as well.

The 18z gefs is running. Ensembles much more active 18z so far for the first possible system and stronger too. One of the members takes a cat3 right into Tampa Bay slowly like Ian only further north. With the 18z showing a brief sheared TD finally it seems the operational gradually caving to the ensembles.