Texas Fall 2023

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rwfromkansas
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#841 Postby rwfromkansas » Thu Oct 19, 2023 3:14 pm

WPC is looking good right now.

I will say GFS still looks good.

And Euro seems to be bending toward the GFS. Slight east movement and DFW west looks good.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#842 Postby HockeyTx82 » Thu Oct 19, 2023 3:20 pm



Winter cancel, move straight to the Spring thread and do not collect $200.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#843 Postby Portastorm » Thu Oct 19, 2023 3:32 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:


Winter cancel, move straight to the Spring thread and do not collect $200.


We're doing "winter cancel" now even before Halloween?! :lol:

C'mon man! In the old days we at least used to wait until the first big model bust on a serious cold front.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#844 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Oct 19, 2023 3:46 pm

Imo that winter forecast actually looks pretty decent. Would like to see that dark green over the SE right over Texas though.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#845 Postby rwfromkansas » Thu Oct 19, 2023 4:10 pm

Yeah getting CPC to even put normal out is a feat, so honestly, it doesn't look bad.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#846 Postby cstrunk » Thu Oct 19, 2023 4:34 pm

Seems like we only get rain when we're in "above normal"... "normal" seems to mean no rain anymore. So I'll take it too.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#847 Postby Brent » Thu Oct 19, 2023 5:03 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:Yeah getting CPC to even put normal out is a feat, so honestly, it doesn't look bad.


Yeah I was fully expecting above normal temps everywhere :lol: :spam: :P
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#848 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Oct 19, 2023 5:38 pm

Lock it in!

Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#849 Postby weatherdude1108 » Thu Oct 19, 2023 8:09 pm

:uarrow:
Aside from that 0.5" - 1" donut hole across the Hill Country, looks nice!
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#850 Postby CaptinCrunch » Fri Oct 20, 2023 9:03 am

Cpv17 wrote:Imo that winter forecast actually looks pretty decent. Would like to see that dark green over the SE right over Texas though.


There is no difference between "Near Normal" and "Equal Chances" :lol: :lol:

CPC lost credibility with me years ago with it's seasonal outlooks. The squirrels in the backyard have just of as good of a chance predicting Winter as they do. :lol: :lol:
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#851 Postby Fifty Rock » Fri Oct 20, 2023 9:14 am

CaptinCrunch wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:Imo that winter forecast actually looks pretty decent. Would like to see that dark green over the SE right over Texas though.


There is no difference between "Near Normal" and "Equal Chances" :lol: :lol:

CPC lost credibility with me years ago with it's seasonal outlooks. The squirrels in the backyard have just of as good of a chance predicting Winter as they do. :lol: :lol:


And you can make soup out of them! :jk:
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#852 Postby Ntxw » Fri Oct 20, 2023 9:43 am

CaptinCrunch wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:Imo that winter forecast actually looks pretty decent. Would like to see that dark green over the SE right over Texas though.


There is no difference between "Near Normal" and "Equal Chances" :lol: :lol:

CPC lost credibility with me years ago with it's seasonal outlooks. The squirrels in the backyard have just of as good of a chance predicting Winter as they do. :lol: :lol:


I used to think this as well, and they generally do go off some essence of certain climo. But how many below, near normal winters have we had though since 2000? They may be wrong, but right for perhaps the wrong reasons. Some context!

I've had to adjust a lot, because track record for me is I've been wrong the most when trying to predict a colder than normal winter.
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#853 Postby HockeyTx82 » Fri Oct 20, 2023 10:00 am

Portastorm wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:


Winter cancel, move straight to the Spring thread and do not collect $200.


We're doing "winter cancel" now even before Halloween?! :lol:

C'mon man! In the old days we at least used to wait until the first big model bust on a serious cold front.


Just getting it out of the way early. Here's to a cold and snowy winter for everyone! :froze:
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#854 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri Oct 20, 2023 10:01 am

Ntxw wrote:
CaptinCrunch wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:Imo that winter forecast actually looks pretty decent. Would like to see that dark green over the SE right over Texas though.


There is no difference between "Near Normal" and "Equal Chances" :lol: :lol:

CPC lost credibility with me years ago with it's seasonal outlooks. The squirrels in the backyard have just of as good of a chance predicting Winter as they do. :lol: :lol:


I used to think this as well, and they generally do go off some essence of certain climo. But how many below, near normal winters have we had though since 2000? They may be wrong, but right for perhaps the wrong reasons. Some context!

I've had to adjust a lot, because track record for me is I've been wrong the most when trying to predict a colder than normal winter.


Predicting colder than normal anything any time of year is a crapshoot anymore. More likely to be right predicting warmer than normal. :sun: :firedevil: :lol:
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#855 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Oct 20, 2023 10:24 am

For rain, GFS looks even better for DFW, but any more east will start to cut off rain from watersheds to the west.

Euro took a step back further west. Will see what 12z says today...
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#856 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Oct 20, 2023 10:30 am

PDO has really warmed up over the past few weeks. Hopefully next week is just the start of an extended wet pattern for us!
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#857 Postby lukem » Fri Oct 20, 2023 10:35 am

South Texas Storms wrote:PDO has really warmed up over the past few weeks. Hopefully next week is just the start of an extended wet pattern for us!

That's great news. The last domino to fall!
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#858 Postby Ntxw » Fri Oct 20, 2023 10:38 am

SSTa change does show the north Pacific cooling, especially in the west where it's held up the -PDO largely. Maybe the El Nino is coupling in the mid latitudes.

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#859 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri Oct 20, 2023 1:10 pm

Ntxw wrote:SSTa change does show the north Pacific cooling, especially in the west where it's held up the -PDO largely. Maybe the El Nino is coupling in the mid latitudes.

https://i.imgur.com/q7o1Yqq.png


Sorry, still trying to educate myself on the PDO.

When you mentioned "north Pacific cooling", I was thinking the cooling made the PDO more negative(?); Then I thought "continued rain delays/bummer/sucks," etc.

But I guess this cooling is good news? With all the "likes" I'm guess it is(?). Is it cooling and warming in certain parts of the Pacific (north vs. south with respect to the PDO)?
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Re: Texas Fall 2023

#860 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Oct 20, 2023 1:44 pm

Ugh, the GFS might be fools gold. The Euro and CMC don't really want to move any rain into DFW next week and keep everything out West.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.


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