Texas Fall 2023

[rwfromkansas]

WPC is looking good right now.

I will say GFS still looks good.

And Euro seems to be bending toward the GFS. Slight east movement and DFW west looks good.

[HockeyTx82]

Winter Outlook:

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20231019/b5be0c9332689b318b4553e8788eabc0.gif

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20231019/aa16d953a90c810a86d565d1da185a8b.gif

Winter cancel, move straight to the Spring thread and do not collect $200.

[Portastorm]

Winter Outlook:

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20231019/b5be0c9332689b318b4553e8788eabc0.gif

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20231019/aa16d953a90c810a86d565d1da185a8b.gif

Winter cancel, move straight to the Spring thread and do not collect $200.

We're doing "winter cancel" now even before Halloween?!

C'mon man! In the old days we at least used to wait until the first big model bust on a serious cold front.

[Cpv17]

Imo that winter forecast actually looks pretty decent. Would like to see that dark green over the SE right over Texas though.

[rwfromkansas]

Yeah getting CPC to even put normal out is a feat, so honestly, it doesn't look bad.

[cstrunk]

Seems like we only get rain when we're in "above normal"... "normal" seems to mean no rain anymore. So I'll take it too.

[Brent]

Yeah getting CPC to even put normal out is a feat, so honestly, it doesn't look bad.

Yeah I was fully expecting above normal temps everywhere

[bubba hotep]

Lock it in!

[weatherdude1108]

Aside from that 0.5" - 1" donut hole across the Hill Country, looks nice!

[CaptinCrunch]

Imo that winter forecast actually looks pretty decent. Would like to see that dark green over the SE right over Texas though.

There is no difference between "Near Normal" and "Equal Chances"

CPC lost credibility with me years ago with it's seasonal outlooks. The squirrels in the backyard have just of as good of a chance predicting Winter as they do.

[Fifty Rock]

Imo that winter forecast actually looks pretty decent. Would like to see that dark green over the SE right over Texas though.

There is no difference between "Near Normal" and "Equal Chances"

CPC lost credibility with me years ago with it's seasonal outlooks. The squirrels in the backyard have just of as good of a chance predicting Winter as they do.

And you can make soup out of them!

[Ntxw]

Imo that winter forecast actually looks pretty decent. Would like to see that dark green over the SE right over Texas though.

There is no difference between "Near Normal" and "Equal Chances"

CPC lost credibility with me years ago with it's seasonal outlooks. The squirrels in the backyard have just of as good of a chance predicting Winter as they do.

I used to think this as well, and they generally do go off some essence of certain climo. But how many below, near normal winters have we had though since 2000? They may be wrong, but right for perhaps the wrong reasons. Some context!

I've had to adjust a lot, because track record for me is I've been wrong the most when trying to predict a colder than normal winter.

[HockeyTx82]

Winter Outlook:

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20231019/b5be0c9332689b318b4553e8788eabc0.gif

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20231019/aa16d953a90c810a86d565d1da185a8b.gif

Winter cancel, move straight to the Spring thread and do not collect $200.

We're doing "winter cancel" now even before Halloween?!

C'mon man! In the old days we at least used to wait until the first big model bust on a serious cold front.

Just getting it out of the way early. Here's to a cold and snowy winter for everyone!

[weatherdude1108]

Imo that winter forecast actually looks pretty decent. Would like to see that dark green over the SE right over Texas though.

There is no difference between "Near Normal" and "Equal Chances"

CPC lost credibility with me years ago with it's seasonal outlooks. The squirrels in the backyard have just of as good of a chance predicting Winter as they do.

I used to think this as well, and they generally do go off some essence of certain climo. But how many below, near normal winters have we had though since 2000? They may be wrong, but right for perhaps the wrong reasons. Some context!

I've had to adjust a lot, because track record for me is I've been wrong the most when trying to predict a colder than normal winter.

Predicting colder than normal anything any time of year is a crapshoot anymore. More likely to be right predicting warmer than normal.

[rwfromkansas]

For rain, GFS looks even better for DFW, but any more east will start to cut off rain from watersheds to the west.

Euro took a step back further west. Will see what 12z says today...

[South Texas Storms]

PDO has really warmed up over the past few weeks. Hopefully next week is just the start of an extended wet pattern for us!

[lukem]

PDO has really warmed up over the past few weeks. Hopefully next week is just the start of an extended wet pattern for us!

That's great news. The last domino to fall!

[Ntxw]

SSTa change does show the north Pacific cooling, especially in the west where it's held up the -PDO largely. Maybe the El Nino is coupling in the mid latitudes.

[weatherdude1108]

SSTa change does show the north Pacific cooling, especially in the west where it's held up the -PDO largely. Maybe the El Nino is coupling in the mid latitudes.

https://i.imgur.com/q7o1Yqq.png

Sorry, still trying to educate myself on the PDO.

When you mentioned "north Pacific cooling", I was thinking the cooling made the PDO more negative(?); Then I thought "continued rain delays/bummer/sucks," etc.

But I guess this cooling is good news? With all the "likes" I'm guess it is(?). Is it cooling and warming in certain parts of the Pacific (north vs. south with respect to the PDO)?

[bubba hotep]

Ugh, the GFS might be fools gold. The Euro and CMC don't really want to move any rain into DFW next week and keep everything out West.