Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Harp.1]

Very persistent/ aggressive snowfall signal in the 00z EPS

For which locations or regions?

Oklahoma and Northern Texas, there is this example on the snow depth on PV.
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SjnDs.gif
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SjnDs.gif

Unfortunately, that does me no good in Louisiana. ☹️

[cajungal]

For which locations or regions?

Oklahoma and Northern Texas, there is this example on the snow depth on PV.
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SjnDs.gif
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SjnDs.gif

Unfortunately, that does me no good in Louisiana. ☹️

Grasshopper you may have to move to TX lol

[Brent]

The end of the Euro has some promise for TX winter lovers. 8-10 days out though. I really hope this Nino is back loaded.

I hope so because I've yet to see a flake here and we average 9 inches

Yeah plenty of years have flipped in January but until it does

[cajungal]

The end of the Euro has some promise for TX winter lovers. 8-10 days out though. I really hope this Nino is back loaded.

I hope so because I've yet to see a flake here and we average 9 inches

Yeah plenty of years have flipped in January but until it does

I would take 9 inches over having to go years and years without a single flake in SE Louisiana. Nashville 9th-12th, I hope I see something

[CaptinCrunch]

The end of the Euro has some promise for TX winter lovers. 8-10 days out though. I really hope this Nino is back loaded.

I hope so because I've yet to see a flake here and we average 9 inches

Yeah plenty of years have flipped in January but until it does

I would take 9 inches over having to go years and years without a single flake in SE Louisiana. Nashville 9th-12th, I hope I see something

Nashville 1st snow of 2023 coming

Colder air will be building in on Thursday and we will see showers develop Thursday and Friday. Snow showers will be possible Thursday evening through Friday. We could see some light accumulation mainly over the Cumberlan Plateau.

[Ntxw]

First week of January continues to look interesting. Surface cold is still lacking but with cold air above need a dynamic system to take advantage. The 2nd system has more qpf with it and could be the larger event if it can find cold.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Jan 10th, thats when it looks like things will be much more favorable.

[cajungal]

I hope so because I've yet to see a flake here and we average 9 inches

Yeah plenty of years have flipped in January but until it does

I would take 9 inches over having to go years and years without a single flake in SE Louisiana. Nashville 9th-12th, I hope I see something

Nashville 1st snow of 2023 coming

Colder air will be building in on Thursday and we will see showers develop Thursday and Friday. Snow showers will be possible Thursday evening through Friday. We could see some light accumulation mainly over the Cumberlan Plateau.

Won’t be there til the 9th and only will be there til the 12th. Was supposed to be for an Aerosmith concert that got postponed due to vocal injury to Steven Tyler. But since hotel has been paid for, mini vacation for us. Feeling good that we will at least see a few flakes

[Cpv17]

Jan 10th, thats when it looks like things will be much more favorable.

Odd you say that because that’s when Cosgrove thinks we’ll go into a January thaw. He keeps hyping that January thaw in the middle of the month but he’s the only one (that I’ve seen) that’s saying that. I guess we’ll find out.

[Ntxw]

Jan 10th, thats when it looks like things will be much more favorable.

Odd you say that because that’s when Cosgrove thinks we’ll go into a January thaw. He keeps hyping that January thaw in the middle of the month but he’s the only one (that I’ve seen) that’s saying that. I guess we’ll find out.

I admire Cosgrove, but he predicts a January thaw every year. And to be frank, what are we thawing from? It's been thawing already all December.

[Brent]

First week of January continues to look interesting. Surface cold is still lacking but with cold air above need a dynamic system to take advantage. The 2nd system has more qpf with it and could be the larger event if it can find cold.

GFS now has my entire average in one storm but it's at the end of the run of course

[Cpv17]

I don’t really see much of a -EPO on the ensembles in the LR but the AO and NAO both look to be negative. Can we still get cold down here with no good blocking over Alaska? Looks like a massive trough is setting up over much of the US around that 2 week range. Widespread cold or just a rainy pattern setting up? There looks to be one heck of a block setting up near southern Greenland in the LR but without the blocking around and above Alaska, I’m not sure that will do much good. Maybe better rain chances though.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I don’t really see much of a -EPO on the ensembles in the LR but the AO and NAO both look to be negative. Can we still get cold down here with no good blocking over Alaska? Looks like a massive trough is setting up over much of the US around that 2 week range. Widespread cold or just a rainy pattern setting up? There looks to be one heck of a block setting up near southern Greenland in the LR but without the blocking around and above Alaska, I’m not sure that will do much good. Maybe better rain chances though.

Its absolutely possible. You can see it almost at the end of the GFS. A system that streams down the spine of the Rockies, and digs down a bit further south of the big bend region should do the trick. Now, having a chilly source region in Canada and some snow cover in the US would help. Just need some help with the upper levels. Really need the low to dig in.

[Ntxw]

I don’t really see much of a -EPO on the ensembles in the LR but the AO and NAO both look to be negative. Can we still get cold down here with no good blocking over Alaska? Looks like a massive trough is setting up over much of the US around that 2 week range. Widespread cold or just a rainy pattern setting up? There looks to be one heck of a block setting up near southern Greenland in the LR but without the blocking around and above Alaska, I’m not sure that will do much good. Maybe better rain chances though.

Its absolutely possible. You can see it almost at the end of the GFS. A system that streams down the spine of the Rockies, and digs down a bit further south of the big bend region should do the trick. Now, having a chilly source region in Canada and some snow cover in the US would help. Just need some help with the upper levels. Really need the low to dig in.

Blocking over the Beaufort Sea into the Arctic (just above Alaska) is just as effective. It doesn't directly send cold to us like an Alaskan block but seeds cold air into W-Central Canada. Feb 2021 had record blocking up there.



AO/NAO to me is a wall, it's blocking but what is it blocking? Cold air? warm air? Wxman57?!

[orangeblood]

I don’t really see much of a -EPO on the ensembles in the LR but the AO and NAO both look to be negative. Can we still get cold down here with no good blocking over Alaska? Looks like a massive trough is setting up over much of the US around that 2 week range. Widespread cold or just a rainy pattern setting up? There looks to be one heck of a block setting up near southern Greenland in the LR but without the blocking around and above Alaska, I’m not sure that will do much good. Maybe better rain chances though.

One of the best snow periods in the US I believe occurred with a slightly positive EPO - 2010 snowmagedon. -AO -NAO +EPO

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I've come to learn a while back that we dont need or actually want a gigantic HP to bring down the cold air necessary. Feb '21 was also a good example of this. Having an ULL bringing down the cold air, with the proper positioning of the low would be much better for snow in the south.

Here in Denver, the positioning of the low is everything if a low passes by. It makes it very difficult to forecast until 24 hours before the event actually occurs.

[Ntxw]

I've come to learn a while back that we dont need or actually want a gigantic HP to bring down the cold air necessary. Feb '21 was also a good example of this. Having an ULL bringing down the cold air, with the proper positioning of the low would be much better for snow in the south.

Here in Denver, the positioning of the low is everything if a low passes by. It makes it very difficult to forecast until 24 hours before the event actually occurs.

A broad interior west trough positive tilt is preferable. Usually that's needed for precipitation to occur with the cold. This occurred just this past January and early Feb when many of the forecasts missed the cold into TX.

[Ntxw]

One common denominator on all of the guidance is that there will be a cold source over North America. Unlike in December where there was no true cold to be found. At least that is one building block you'd rather have in January.

[Stratton23]

And the 12z EPS is even more aggressive lol, all it takes is a dynamic system and some folks could really cash in big time

[rwfromkansas]

Jan 10th, thats when it looks like things will be much more favorable.

Odd you say that because that’s when Cosgrove thinks we’ll go into a January thaw. He keeps hyping that January thaw in the middle of the month but he’s the only one (that I’ve seen) that’s saying that. I guess we’ll find out.

He just seems to default to a thaw every winter. I don’t think every year features one.

Love the guy and will mourn when he’s gone as he’s the Betty White of the weather world. He better live a long time!