Texas Winter 2023-2024

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Harp.1
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#681 Postby Harp.1 » Wed Dec 27, 2023 10:33 am

Iceresistance wrote:
Harp.1 wrote:
Stratton23 wrote:Very persistent/ aggressive snowfall signal in the 00z EPS

For which locations or regions?


Oklahoma and Northern Texas, there is this example on the snow depth on PV.
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SjnDs.gif
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SjnDs.gif

Unfortunately, that does me no good in Louisiana. ☹️
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#682 Postby cajungal » Wed Dec 27, 2023 10:47 am

Harp.1 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Harp.1 wrote:For which locations or regions?


Oklahoma and Northern Texas, there is this example on the snow depth on PV.
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SjnDs.gif
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SjnDs.gif

Unfortunately, that does me no good in Louisiana. ☹️

Grasshopper you may have to move to TX lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#683 Postby Brent » Wed Dec 27, 2023 10:47 am

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:The end of the Euro has some promise for TX winter lovers. 8-10 days out though. I really hope this Nino is back loaded.


I hope so because I've yet to see a flake here and we average 9 inches

Yeah plenty of years have flipped in January but until it does :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#684 Postby cajungal » Wed Dec 27, 2023 10:53 am

Brent wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:The end of the Euro has some promise for TX winter lovers. 8-10 days out though. I really hope this Nino is back loaded.


I hope so because I've yet to see a flake here and we average 9 inches

Yeah plenty of years have flipped in January but until it does :lol:


I would take 9 inches over having to go years and years without a single flake in SE Louisiana. Nashville 9th-12th, I hope I see something
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#685 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Dec 27, 2023 11:09 am

cajungal wrote:
Brent wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:The end of the Euro has some promise for TX winter lovers. 8-10 days out though. I really hope this Nino is back loaded.


I hope so because I've yet to see a flake here and we average 9 inches

Yeah plenty of years have flipped in January but until it does :lol:


I would take 9 inches over having to go years and years without a single flake in SE Louisiana. Nashville 9th-12th, I hope I see something


Nashville 1st snow of 2023 coming

Colder air will be building in on Thursday and we will see showers develop Thursday and Friday. Snow showers will be possible Thursday evening through Friday. We could see some light accumulation mainly over the Cumberlan Plateau.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#686 Postby Ntxw » Wed Dec 27, 2023 11:44 am

First week of January continues to look interesting. Surface cold is still lacking but with cold air above need a dynamic system to take advantage. The 2nd system has more qpf with it and could be the larger event if it can find cold.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#687 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Dec 27, 2023 11:54 am

Jan 10th, thats when it looks like things will be much more favorable.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#688 Postby cajungal » Wed Dec 27, 2023 12:02 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:
cajungal wrote:
Brent wrote:
I hope so because I've yet to see a flake here and we average 9 inches

Yeah plenty of years have flipped in January but until it does :lol:


I would take 9 inches over having to go years and years without a single flake in SE Louisiana. Nashville 9th-12th, I hope I see something


Nashville 1st snow of 2023 coming

Colder air will be building in on Thursday and we will see showers develop Thursday and Friday. Snow showers will be possible Thursday evening through Friday. We could see some light accumulation mainly over the Cumberlan Plateau.


Won’t be there til the 9th and only will be there til the 12th. Was supposed to be for an Aerosmith concert that got postponed due to vocal injury to Steven Tyler. But since hotel has been paid for, mini vacation for us. Feeling good that we will at least see a few flakes
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#689 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Dec 27, 2023 12:03 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Jan 10th, thats when it looks like things will be much more favorable.


Odd you say that because that’s when Cosgrove thinks we’ll go into a January thaw. He keeps hyping that January thaw in the middle of the month but he’s the only one (that I’ve seen) that’s saying that. I guess we’ll find out.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#690 Postby Ntxw » Wed Dec 27, 2023 12:05 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Jan 10th, thats when it looks like things will be much more favorable.


Odd you say that because that’s when Cosgrove thinks we’ll go into a January thaw. He keeps hyping that January thaw in the middle of the month but he’s the only one (that I’ve seen) that’s saying that. I guess we’ll find out.


I admire Cosgrove, but he predicts a January thaw every year. And to be frank, what are we thawing from? :lol: It's been thawing already all December.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#691 Postby Brent » Wed Dec 27, 2023 12:32 pm

Ntxw wrote:First week of January continues to look interesting. Surface cold is still lacking but with cold air above need a dynamic system to take advantage. The 2nd system has more qpf with it and could be the larger event if it can find cold.


GFS now has my entire average in one storm but it's at the end of the run of course :spam:
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#692 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Dec 27, 2023 1:04 pm

I don’t really see much of a -EPO on the ensembles in the LR but the AO and NAO both look to be negative. Can we still get cold down here with no good blocking over Alaska? Looks like a massive trough is setting up over much of the US around that 2 week range. Widespread cold or just a rainy pattern setting up? There looks to be one heck of a block setting up near southern Greenland in the LR but without the blocking around and above Alaska, I’m not sure that will do much good. Maybe better rain chances though.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#693 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Dec 27, 2023 1:30 pm

Cpv17 wrote:I don’t really see much of a -EPO on the ensembles in the LR but the AO and NAO both look to be negative. Can we still get cold down here with no good blocking over Alaska? Looks like a massive trough is setting up over much of the US around that 2 week range. Widespread cold or just a rainy pattern setting up? There looks to be one heck of a block setting up near southern Greenland in the LR but without the blocking around and above Alaska, I’m not sure that will do much good. Maybe better rain chances though.



Its absolutely possible. You can see it almost at the end of the GFS. A system that streams down the spine of the Rockies, and digs down a bit further south of the big bend region should do the trick. Now, having a chilly source region in Canada and some snow cover in the US would help. Just need some help with the upper levels. Really need the low to dig in.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#694 Postby Ntxw » Wed Dec 27, 2023 1:34 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:I don’t really see much of a -EPO on the ensembles in the LR but the AO and NAO both look to be negative. Can we still get cold down here with no good blocking over Alaska? Looks like a massive trough is setting up over much of the US around that 2 week range. Widespread cold or just a rainy pattern setting up? There looks to be one heck of a block setting up near southern Greenland in the LR but without the blocking around and above Alaska, I’m not sure that will do much good. Maybe better rain chances though.



Its absolutely possible. You can see it almost at the end of the GFS. A system that streams down the spine of the Rockies, and digs down a bit further south of the big bend region should do the trick. Now, having a chilly source region in Canada and some snow cover in the US would help. Just need some help with the upper levels. Really need the low to dig in.


Blocking over the Beaufort Sea into the Arctic (just above Alaska) is just as effective. It doesn't directly send cold to us like an Alaskan block but seeds cold air into W-Central Canada. Feb 2021 had record blocking up there.

Image

AO/NAO to me is a wall, it's blocking but what is it blocking? Cold air? warm air? Wxman57?!
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#695 Postby orangeblood » Wed Dec 27, 2023 1:52 pm

Cpv17 wrote:I don’t really see much of a -EPO on the ensembles in the LR but the AO and NAO both look to be negative. Can we still get cold down here with no good blocking over Alaska? Looks like a massive trough is setting up over much of the US around that 2 week range. Widespread cold or just a rainy pattern setting up? There looks to be one heck of a block setting up near southern Greenland in the LR but without the blocking around and above Alaska, I’m not sure that will do much good. Maybe better rain chances though.


One of the best snow periods in the US I believe occurred with a slightly positive EPO - 2010 snowmagedon. -AO -NAO +EPO
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#696 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Dec 27, 2023 1:52 pm

I've come to learn a while back that we dont need or actually want a gigantic HP to bring down the cold air necessary. Feb '21 was also a good example of this. Having an ULL bringing down the cold air, with the proper positioning of the low would be much better for snow in the south.

Here in Denver, the positioning of the low is everything if a low passes by. It makes it very difficult to forecast until 24 hours before the event actually occurs.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#697 Postby Ntxw » Wed Dec 27, 2023 2:04 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:I've come to learn a while back that we dont need or actually want a gigantic HP to bring down the cold air necessary. Feb '21 was also a good example of this. Having an ULL bringing down the cold air, with the proper positioning of the low would be much better for snow in the south.

Here in Denver, the positioning of the low is everything if a low passes by. It makes it very difficult to forecast until 24 hours before the event actually occurs.


A broad interior west trough positive tilt is preferable. Usually that's needed for precipitation to occur with the cold. This occurred just this past January and early Feb when many of the forecasts missed the cold into TX.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#698 Postby Ntxw » Wed Dec 27, 2023 2:10 pm

One common denominator on all of the guidance is that there will be a cold source over North America. Unlike in December where there was no true cold to be found. At least that is one building block you'd rather have in January.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#699 Postby Stratton23 » Wed Dec 27, 2023 2:33 pm

And the 12z EPS is even more aggressive lol, all it takes is a dynamic system and some folks could really cash in big time
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#700 Postby rwfromkansas » Wed Dec 27, 2023 3:55 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Jan 10th, thats when it looks like things will be much more favorable.


Odd you say that because that’s when Cosgrove thinks we’ll go into a January thaw. He keeps hyping that January thaw in the middle of the month but he’s the only one (that I’ve seen) that’s saying that. I guess we’ll find out.


He just seems to default to a thaw every winter. I don’t think every year features one.

Love the guy and will mourn when he’s gone as he’s the Betty White of the weather world. He better live a long time!
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