Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Itryatgolf]

Anyone have the 12z euro eps at 500mb and 2m?

[vbhoutex]

Almost all of this is about N Texas or further North. I know we are 10 days out and everything will change, but what I just saw in this thread is telling me our range in Houston, depending on model used, is 0 or a little below up yo 28. Any thoughts on this? I am especially interested in WXman57's take on this, especially the Winter weather person at his office is just down the hall from him.

[orangeblood]

Anyone have the 12z euro eps at 500mb and 2m?

Day 10 Euro Ens, great look for widespread US cold then by Day 15, MJO warm phase influence starts showing up for a possible relaxation period

[Itryatgolf]

Anyone have the 12z euro eps at 500mb and 2m?

Day 10 Euro Ens, great look for widespread US cold then by Day 15, MJO warm phase influence starts showing up for a possible relaxation period

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1704456000/1705320000-QqkQp7U6sq4.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/t2m_f_anom/1704456000/1705320000-ZyOJJ19IivI.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1704456000/1705752000-EeoYnxKvZdM.png

I'm hoping we can find a way to get a winter event in the upcoming cold pattern, especially if the mjo warm phases take over eventually and who knows how long it lasts once it warms up

[orangeblood]

Anyone have the 12z euro eps at 500mb and 2m?

Day 10 Euro Ens, great look for widespread US cold then by Day 15, MJO warm phase influence starts showing up for a possible relaxation period

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1704456000/1705320000-QqkQp7U6sq4.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/t2m_f_anom/1704456000/1705320000-ZyOJJ19IivI.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1704456000/1705752000-EeoYnxKvZdM.png

I'm hoping we can find a way to get a winter event in the upcoming cold pattern, especially if the mjo warm phases take over eventually and who knows how long it lasts once it warms up

Yep, February is usually the month for that but this pattern is primed for many to cash-in this month

[Itryatgolf]

https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1743353351037681683

[bubba hotep]

Anyone have the 12z euro eps at 500mb and 2m?

Day 10 Euro Ens, great look for widespread US cold then by Day 15, MJO warm phase influence starts showing up for a possible relaxation period

In addition to the MJO, the retrograde of the NPAC pattern is starting to show up in the longer ranges. MJO warm phases + NPAC retrograde = Pacific air flood and probably an active weather pattern across Texas. Should bring more rain.

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1743353351037681683

Fixed the tweet for you

[orangeblood]

Anyone have the 12z euro eps at 500mb and 2m?

Day 10 Euro Ens, great look for widespread US cold then by Day 15, MJO warm phase influence starts showing up for a possible relaxation period

In addition to the MJO, the retrograde of the NPAC pattern is starting to show up in the longer ranges. MJO warm phases + NPAC retrograde = Pacific air flood and probably an active weather pattern across Texas. Should bring more rain.

GEFS ext and Euro Weeklies very similar looking with the reload starting early February

[bubba hotep]

The Happy Hour GFS does not deliver for next week. The 18z 12k NAM is even north of the GFS, and the same for the 18z RGEM; it's north of the Canadian.

[Cpv17]

So it looks like this will just be a dry blast of cold air for a few days, then a January thaw with rain chances returning, and then a chance for more cold weather coming early February.

[HockeyTx82]

The Happy Hour GFS does not deliver for next week. The 18z 12k NAM is even north of the GFS, and the same for the 18z RGEM; it's north of the Canadian.

I've already moved on into the Spring thread so.......

Can the models, or you all with shirts that have the models names be my pallbearers at my funeral?

So you can let me down one last time?

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 eh i wouldnt say its dry just yet, still 7-8 days out, it can flip,

[Stratton23]

18z GFS finally sees the push of arcitc air all the way down to the gulf coast

[orangeblood]

So it looks like this will just be a dry blast of cold air for a few days, then a January thaw with rain chances returning, and then a chance for more cold weather coming early February.

Way to early to write off wintry precip for the coming 2 weeks

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 eh i wouldnt say its dry just yet, still 7-8 days out, it can flip,

I’d say it’s possible but not likely at this point. Still excited either way but man it would be so much better with a winter storm. It’s kinda deflating and sucking some of the excitement out of this cold blast for me.

[Cpv17]

So it looks like this will just be a dry blast of cold air for a few days, then a January thaw with rain chances returning, and then a chance for more cold weather coming early February.

Way to early to write off wintry precip for the coming 2 weeks

I hope you’re right! I’m just discouraged by the models right now and the CPC forecast.

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 oh i get it! Im the same, cold without wintry precip is wasted cold, however the 18z GFS did take a step in the right direction, trough digs a but more into the baja penninsula, moisture just clears out before the arctic air moves in, but its so close,

[Gotwood]

So it looks like this will just be a dry blast of cold air for a few days, then a January thaw with rain chances returning, and then a chance for more cold weather coming early February.

This is the way it’s looking has a DEC22 feel which only delivered some flurries or a light dusting with the arrival of the front. Oklahoma and Kansas however might get hammered.

[South Texas Storms]

Anyone have the 12z euro eps at 500mb and 2m?

Day 10 Euro Ens, great look for widespread US cold then by Day 15, MJO warm phase influence starts showing up for a possible relaxation period

In addition to the MJO, the retrograde of the NPAC pattern is starting to show up in the longer ranges. MJO warm phases + NPAC retrograde = Pacific air flood and probably an active weather pattern across Texas. Should bring more rain.

I'm looking forward to that more than the cold. We need more rain across south and central TX. Especially before La Nina gets going later this year.