Texas Winter 2023-2024
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Almost all of this is about N Texas or further North. I know we are 10 days out and everything will change, but what I just saw in this thread is telling me our range in Houston, depending on model used, is 0 or a little below up yo 28. Any thoughts on this? I am especially interested in WXman57's take on this, especially the Winter weather person at his office is just down the hall from him.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Itryatgolf wrote:Anyone have the 12z euro eps at 500mb and 2m?
Day 10 Euro Ens, great look for widespread US cold then by Day 15, MJO warm phase influence starts showing up for a possible relaxation period



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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
orangeblood wrote:Itryatgolf wrote:Anyone have the 12z euro eps at 500mb and 2m?
Day 10 Euro Ens, great look for widespread US cold then by Day 15, MJO warm phase influence starts showing up for a possible relaxation period
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1704456000/1705320000-QqkQp7U6sq4.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/t2m_f_anom/1704456000/1705320000-ZyOJJ19IivI.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1704456000/1705752000-EeoYnxKvZdM.png
I'm hoping we can find a way to get a winter event in the upcoming cold pattern, especially if the mjo warm phases take over eventually and who knows how long it lasts once it warms up
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Itryatgolf wrote:orangeblood wrote:Itryatgolf wrote:Anyone have the 12z euro eps at 500mb and 2m?
Day 10 Euro Ens, great look for widespread US cold then by Day 15, MJO warm phase influence starts showing up for a possible relaxation period
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1704456000/1705320000-QqkQp7U6sq4.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/t2m_f_anom/1704456000/1705320000-ZyOJJ19IivI.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1704456000/1705752000-EeoYnxKvZdM.png
I'm hoping we can find a way to get a winter event in the upcoming cold pattern, especially if the mjo warm phases take over eventually and who knows how long it lasts once it warms up
Yep, February is usually the month for that but this pattern is primed for many to cash-in this month
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
orangeblood wrote:Itryatgolf wrote:Anyone have the 12z euro eps at 500mb and 2m?
Day 10 Euro Ens, great look for widespread US cold then by Day 15, MJO warm phase influence starts showing up for a possible relaxation period
In addition to the MJO, the retrograde of the NPAC pattern is starting to show up in the longer ranges. MJO warm phases + NPAC retrograde = Pacific air flood and probably an active weather pattern across Texas. Should bring more rain.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
bubba hotep wrote:orangeblood wrote:Itryatgolf wrote:Anyone have the 12z euro eps at 500mb and 2m?
Day 10 Euro Ens, great look for widespread US cold then by Day 15, MJO warm phase influence starts showing up for a possible relaxation period
In addition to the MJO, the retrograde of the NPAC pattern is starting to show up in the longer ranges. MJO warm phases + NPAC retrograde = Pacific air flood and probably an active weather pattern across Texas. Should bring more rain.
GEFS ext and Euro Weeklies very similar looking with the reload starting early February


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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
The Happy Hour GFS does not deliver for next week. The 18z 12k NAM is even north of the GFS, and the same for the 18z RGEM; it's north of the Canadian.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
So it looks like this will just be a dry blast of cold air for a few days, then a January thaw with rain chances returning, and then a chance for more cold weather coming early February.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
bubba hotep wrote:The Happy Hour GFS does not deliver for next week. The 18z 12k NAM is even north of the GFS, and the same for the 18z RGEM; it's north of the Canadian.
I've already moved on into the Spring thread so.......
Can the models, or you all with shirts that have the models names be my pallbearers at my funeral?
So you can let me down one last time?
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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Cpv17 eh i wouldnt say its dry just yet, still 7-8 days out, it can flip,
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
18z GFS finally sees the push of arcitc air all the way down to the gulf coast
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Cpv17 wrote:So it looks like this will just be a dry blast of cold air for a few days, then a January thaw with rain chances returning, and then a chance for more cold weather coming early February.
Way to early to write off wintry precip for the coming 2 weeks
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Stratton23 wrote:Cpv17 eh i wouldnt say its dry just yet, still 7-8 days out, it can flip,
I’d say it’s possible but not likely at this point. Still excited either way but man it would be so much better with a winter storm. It’s kinda deflating and sucking some of the excitement out of this cold blast for me.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
orangeblood wrote:Cpv17 wrote:So it looks like this will just be a dry blast of cold air for a few days, then a January thaw with rain chances returning, and then a chance for more cold weather coming early February.
Way to early to write off wintry precip for the coming 2 weeks
I hope you’re right! I’m just discouraged by the models right now and the CPC forecast.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Cpv17 oh i get it! Im the same, cold without wintry precip is wasted cold, however the 18z GFS did take a step in the right direction, trough digs a but more into the baja penninsula, moisture just clears out before the arctic air moves in, but its so close,
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Cpv17 wrote:So it looks like this will just be a dry blast of cold air for a few days, then a January thaw with rain chances returning, and then a chance for more cold weather coming early February.
This is the way it’s looking has a DEC22 feel which only delivered some flurries or a light dusting with the arrival of the front. Oklahoma and Kansas however might get hammered.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
bubba hotep wrote:orangeblood wrote:Itryatgolf wrote:Anyone have the 12z euro eps at 500mb and 2m?
Day 10 Euro Ens, great look for widespread US cold then by Day 15, MJO warm phase influence starts showing up for a possible relaxation period
In addition to the MJO, the retrograde of the NPAC pattern is starting to show up in the longer ranges. MJO warm phases + NPAC retrograde = Pacific air flood and probably an active weather pattern across Texas. Should bring more rain.
I'm looking forward to that more than the cold. We need more rain across south and central TX. Especially before La Nina gets going later this year.
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