Texas Winter 2023-2024

[bubba hotep]

Not sure it means much, given it's the 12k NAM, but the s/w is stronger and slower through 57hrs.

Also, the piece of energy we are interested in is still part of the larger trough in the NPAC and hasn't sheared off yet.

[kirium]

Not sure it means much, given it's the 12k NAM, but the s/w is stronger and slower through 57hrs.

Also, the piece of energy we are interested in is still part of the larger trough in the NPAC and hasn't sheared off yet.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024011118/gfs_z500_vort_namer_2.png

In layman's terms, what exactly does that mean or are you thinking?

[rwfromkansas]

18z Euro is mostly snow north of I-20. Makes sense, it's hard to mix with such low temps. Mixed bag south into C TX.

It's way drier though which concerns me. We've come too far today to go backwards and I really hope the 0z reserves it

For Oklahoma yeah. For TX we are trending better. There's an STJ linkage. Two precip shields converging.

The STJ component is wild card. It will provide much more qpf the more it can get injected into the flow within the southern sector. This is why guidance intensifies the band as it crosses Red River.

Unless a Gulf low sucks up all the moisture like happens a lot it seems. Lol.

[txtwister78]

[Texas Snow]

It's way drier though which concerns me. We've come too far today to go backwards and I really hope the 0z reserves it

For Oklahoma yeah. For TX we are trending better. There's an STJ linkage. Two precip shields converging.

The STJ component is wild card. It will provide much more qpf the more it can get injected into the flow within the southern sector. This is why guidance intensifies the band as it crosses Red River.

Unless a Gulf low sucks up all the moisture like happens a lot it seems. Lol.

[HockeyTx82]

For Oklahoma yeah. For TX we are trending better. There's an STJ linkage. Two precip shields converging.

The STJ component is wild card. It will provide much more qpf the more it can get injected into the flow within the southern sector. This is why guidance intensifies the band as it crosses Red River.

Unless a Gulf low sucks up all the moisture like happens a lot it seems. Lol.

https://media1.tenor.com/m/UwSX0RlXgWMAAAAd/you-take-that-back-take-that-back.gif

Is that latest model post above the low sucking up the moisture?

Did NTX just get NAM'ed?

[Brent]

It's way drier though which concerns me. We've come too far today to go backwards and I really hope the 0z reserves it

For Oklahoma yeah. For TX we are trending better. There's an STJ linkage. Two precip shields converging.

The STJ component is wild card. It will provide much more qpf the more it can get injected into the flow within the southern sector. This is why guidance intensifies the band as it crosses Red River.

Unless a Gulf low sucks up all the moisture like happens a lot it seems. Lol.

That plus how dry arctic air can be has me a little concerned for sure. We were looking so good earlier... Ugh. People were saying 10 inches possible 8 hours ago...

[orangeblood]

Now in RGEM range…

[kirium]

Now in RGEM range…

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/rgem-all/tx/instant_ptype/1705017600/1705320000-agCp97IYWXc.png

So it looks like all the moisture that was projected into Oklahoma is now getting sucked into Texas. Does this mean Texas sucks? I kid , I kid

I lived in Frisco for 14 yrs so there's always that!

[jaguars_22]

Can I ask why the coast of Texas on the rgem is warmer and doesn’t get the cold front? It shows us in green lol

[mmmmsnouts]

Liquid equivalent of sleet averages 2.5 to 1 so you would need roughly 0.4” QPF to get an inch of sleet. That RGEM run might not even be enough to mess up the roads in DFW.

[orangeblood]

Liquid equivalent of sleet averages 2.5 to 1 so you would need roughly 0.4” QPF to get an inch of sleet. That RGEM run might not even be enough to mess up the roads in DFW.

Precip just getting started at the end of this run, plus it’s mid teens…anything instantly freezes on contact

[txtwister78]

GFS correcting closer to the NAM. Not a lot of moisture to work with thankfully but won't take much to cause issues on city bridges and overpasses.

Really cuts back on the storm/snow totals for Oklahoma. Moved a bit toward the Euro it would appear (at least on this run).

[Stratton23]

CMC really has temps in the 50’s for me in se texas with no frozen precip, almost 20 degrees warmer than the NAM, doesn’t make alot of sense with the front coming through early sunday

[jaguars_22]

I know it’s weird! Rgem keeps it warmer at coast too

[Ralph's Weather]

Upstream temps this weekend are modelled to approach -70F in MT and temps as far south as NW OK look to be -10s. I cannot see how this air mass puts brakes on before it gets well into the Gulf.

[jaguars_22]

Unless the shortwave is stronger and sucking air out of the gulf which is warmer… idk

[cstrunk]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0009.html

Tornado watch with 50/40 probabilities issued east of DFW/Waco NE through the Arklatex up to Little Rock.

[Quixotic]

Not sure it means much, given it's the 12k NAM, but the s/w is stronger and slower through 57hrs.

Also, the piece of energy we are interested in is still part of the larger trough in the NPAC and hasn't sheared off yet.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024011118/gfs_z500_vort_namer_2.png

So, in 09-10, shortwaves did this exact thing: they deepened and slowed down on approach. Thinking Feb and Mar of 2010 specifically. Hell, you could say it about Christmas Eve 2009. Something to consider. The STJ was more robust that winter.

[txtwister78]

Watch out tonight just east of Dallas. Tornado Watch out and storms expected to develop just after midnight