Texas Winter 2023-2024

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jaguars_22
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2461 Postby jaguars_22 » Fri Jan 12, 2024 10:22 am

Does the rgem stop with the cold again? I’ve never seen this before on models but it’s starting to show up on all of them… it gets down to cuero area and backs up
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2462 Postby Edwards Limestone » Fri Jan 12, 2024 10:22 am

txtwister78 wrote:NAM has been increasing freezing rain accumulations over SC TX points east the last few runs. Sleet just north of that. Wouldn't be surprised to see NWS go more bullish on this in their AFD.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/tx/frzr_total/1705060800/1705363200-AuAaokkayYw.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/tx/sleet_total/1705060800/1705363200-6kyGoqU9dhA.png


My house in Comal County in the bullseye. :cold:
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2463 Postby gpsnowman » Fri Jan 12, 2024 10:26 am

Latest from Steve McCauley. Hope is not lost for DFW.
https://www.facebook.com/wfaa.steve.mccauley
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2464 Postby txtwister78 » Fri Jan 12, 2024 10:27 am

Portastorm wrote:Looking at the timing of the Arctic front for south central Texas, it’s weird seeing the HRRR some 6-7 hours ahead of the NAM. HRRR has it late Saturday evening while the NAM says the wee hours of Sunday. Hmm …

Concerned about a legitimate 72 hours of temps =<32° here. Infrastructure here shaky enough on a normal day.


Agreed mirrors the ICON more in terms of temps at that time. Not a good sign with frozen precipitation concerns.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2465 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jan 12, 2024 10:32 am

Our 3 days of winter appears on-track for next Mon-Wed. I notice that the Canadian model went from 11 here Tuesday to 24. It's always way too cold for us. That 11 it has for Wed will likely come up to about 20-22 in future runs. It had 5F for us Wednesday morning in yesterday's 12Z run. Looks like precip down here in SE TX will end Monday afternoon before temps drop to freezing. No travel issues south of I-10.

I added the NAM to the mix of models in the plot. Only 3 points for it so far. ICON is still way colder for Monday afternoon through Tuesday, but it may be clearing out the clouds too soon.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2466 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Fri Jan 12, 2024 10:34 am

wxman57 wrote:Our 3 days of winter appears on-track for next Mon-Wed. I notice that the Canadian model went from 11 here Tuesday to 24. It's always way too cold for us. That 11 it has for Wed will likely come up to about 20-22 in future runs. It had 5F for us Wednesday morning in yesterday's 12Z run. Looks like precip down here in SE TX will end Monday afternoon before temps drop to freezing. No travel issues south of I-10.

I added the NAM to the mix of models in the plot. Only 3 points for it so far. ICON is still way colder for Monday afternoon through Tuesday, but it may be clearing out the clouds too soon.

http://wxman57.com/images/Models00ZJan12HOU.JPG



I got bad news for you. It’s probably going to be more like 10-15 days of actual winter this year and by actual winter, I mean highs less than 40. :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2467 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Jan 12, 2024 10:37 am

Evan increasing talk of precip even as the models make me think now DFW will get screwed. He did have to get in a dig making fun of the Euro for going drier of course. His anti-"influencer" kick is really getting annoying.

I'm concerned this will be the pile-up situation in 2021 where we have basically nothing except a little tiny amount of precip that freezes in a few spots, so they will have school Tuesday and then there are wrecks.

We need a more powerful low than modeled to really squeeze out some sleet/snow. A dusting of sleet won't be enough to keep people home safe Monday/Tuesday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2468 Postby Tammie » Fri Jan 12, 2024 10:39 am

rwfromkansas wrote:Even increasing talk of precip even as the models make me think now DFW will get screwed.

I'm concerned this will be the pile-up situation in 2021 where we have basically nothing except a little tiny amount of precip that freezes in a few spots, so they will have school Tuesday and then there are wrecks.

We need a more powerful low than modeled to really squeeze out some sleet/snow. A dusting of sleet won't be enough to keep people home safe Monday/Tuesday.


Thankfully Monday is a holiday, so schools are closed.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2469 Postby gpsnowman » Fri Jan 12, 2024 10:41 am

rwfromkansas wrote:Even increasing talk of precip even as the models make me think now DFW will get screwed.

I'm concerned this will be the pile-up situation in 2021 where we have basically nothing except a little tiny amount of precip that freezes in a few spots, so they will have school Tuesday and then there are wrecks.

We need a more powerful low than modeled to really squeeze out some sleet/snow. A dusting of sleet won't be enough to keep people home safe Monday/Tuesday.

At least on Fox 4 this morning and NBC 5 last night precip chances are pretty good regardless of model mayhem. I'm not worried, this isn't supposed to be a massive event anyway.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2470 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Jan 12, 2024 10:44 am

Yeah, at least we didn't go from 8 inches to 1 like our friends up north. Ugh. Just frustrating not really knowing until we get close in 2024.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2471 Postby BrokenGlass » Fri Jan 12, 2024 10:50 am

rwfromkansas wrote:Evan increasing talk of precip even as the models make me think now DFW will get screwed. He did have to get in a dig making fun of the Euro for going drier of course. His anti-"influencer" kick is really getting annoying.

I'm concerned this will be the pile-up situation in 2021 where we have basically nothing except a little tiny amount of precip that freezes in a few spots, so they will have school Tuesday and then there are wrecks.

We need a more powerful low than modeled to really squeeze out some sleet/snow. A dusting of sleet won't be enough to keep people home safe Monday/Tuesday.

Honestly, state should recommend school closures statewide to preserve the power grid.


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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2472 Postby Rgv20 » Fri Jan 12, 2024 10:50 am

jaguars_22 wrote:Does the rgem stop with the cold again? I’ve never seen this before on models but it’s starting to show up on all of them… it gets down to cuero area and backs up


The NAM 12KM and to a lesser extent the NAM 3KM does the same thing for me in Deep South Texas. It seems the cold runs out of steam on Sunday and than looks to get a secondary push come Monday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2473 Postby BrokenGlass » Fri Jan 12, 2024 10:52 am

Wthrfan wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:Upstream temps this weekend are modelled to approach -70F in MT and temps as far south as NW OK look to be -10s. I cannot see how this air mass puts brakes on before it gets well into the Gulf.
57's wall?!

Like Trump’s…easily breached.


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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2474 Postby jaguars_22 » Fri Jan 12, 2024 10:53 am

Rgv I was looking at the simulated satellite and it looks like the gfs kicks in the pacific moisture flow towards south Texas… I thought this was some kind of huge blast of cold but it looks like a dud… can someone explain why the front would back up so quickly?
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2475 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Jan 12, 2024 10:54 am

Just took a quick glance but the 12 GFS seems to be increasing snow in OK again around Tulsa. Looks like around .5 to .10 of an inch maybe for northern DFW into the western burbs.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2476 Postby Brent » Fri Jan 12, 2024 10:55 am

rwfromkansas wrote:Yeah, at least we didn't go from 8 inches to 1 like our friends up north. Ugh. Just frustrating not really knowing until we get close in 2024.


I wish I could believe the GFS and NAM trying to show a heavier band but I'm sure the Euro coming in with a dusting again will happen :roll:
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Last edited by Brent on Fri Jan 12, 2024 10:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2477 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Fri Jan 12, 2024 10:56 am

jaguars_22 wrote:Rgv I was looking at the simulated satellite and it looks like the gfs kicks in the pacific moisture flow towards south Texas… I thought this was some kind of huge blast of cold but it looks like a dud… can someone explain why the front would back up so quickly?



Here’s a hint…. It’s not going to back up.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2478 Postby Rgv20 » Fri Jan 12, 2024 10:58 am

jaguars_22 wrote:Rgv I was looking at the simulated satellite and it looks like the gfs kicks in the pacific moisture flow towards south Texas… I thought this was some kind of huge blast of cold but it looks like a dud… can someone explain why the front would back up so quickly?


Going off of history and experience I highly doubt this Arctic Front will slow down as much as current models are forecasting.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2479 Postby jaguars_22 » Fri Jan 12, 2024 10:59 am

Thundersleet so it’s a normal computer glitch lol…even the short range models show this :) this system must be complex
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2480 Postby CaptinCrunch » Fri Jan 12, 2024 11:09 am

NWS FTW mentioned the GFS was sniffing out another impulse Monday night with some lift, but until there is better consensus have left out precipitation for Monday night.
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