Texas Winter 2023-2024
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

-
- Category 2
- Posts: 597
- Joined: Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:26 pm
- Location: Victoria TX
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Does the rgem stop with the cold again? I’ve never seen this before on models but it’s starting to show up on all of them… it gets down to cuero area and backs up
0 likes
- Edwards Limestone
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 476
- Age: 36
- Joined: Tue Dec 28, 2021 11:05 am
- Location: Smithson Valley, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
txtwister78 wrote:NAM has been increasing freezing rain accumulations over SC TX points east the last few runs. Sleet just north of that. Wouldn't be surprised to see NWS go more bullish on this in their AFD.
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/tx/frzr_total/1705060800/1705363200-AuAaokkayYw.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/tx/sleet_total/1705060800/1705363200-6kyGoqU9dhA.png
My house in Comal County in the bullseye.

0 likes
The above post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Latest from Steve McCauley. Hope is not lost for DFW.
https://www.facebook.com/wfaa.steve.mccauley
https://www.facebook.com/wfaa.steve.mccauley
3 likes
- txtwister78
- Category 5
- Posts: 1866
- Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:56 pm
- Location: San Antonio
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Portastorm wrote:Looking at the timing of the Arctic front for south central Texas, it’s weird seeing the HRRR some 6-7 hours ahead of the NAM. HRRR has it late Saturday evening while the NAM says the wee hours of Sunday. Hmm …
Concerned about a legitimate 72 hours of temps =<32° here. Infrastructure here shaky enough on a normal day.
Agreed mirrors the ICON more in terms of temps at that time. Not a good sign with frozen precipitation concerns.
1 likes
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22984
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Our 3 days of winter appears on-track for next Mon-Wed. I notice that the Canadian model went from 11 here Tuesday to 24. It's always way too cold for us. That 11 it has for Wed will likely come up to about 20-22 in future runs. It had 5F for us Wednesday morning in yesterday's 12Z run. Looks like precip down here in SE TX will end Monday afternoon before temps drop to freezing. No travel issues south of I-10.
I added the NAM to the mix of models in the plot. Only 3 points for it so far. ICON is still way colder for Monday afternoon through Tuesday, but it may be clearing out the clouds too soon.

I added the NAM to the mix of models in the plot. Only 3 points for it so far. ICON is still way colder for Monday afternoon through Tuesday, but it may be clearing out the clouds too soon.
1 likes
- ThunderSleetDreams
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1477
- Age: 43
- Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
- Location: S of Weimar, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
wxman57 wrote:Our 3 days of winter appears on-track for next Mon-Wed. I notice that the Canadian model went from 11 here Tuesday to 24. It's always way too cold for us. That 11 it has for Wed will likely come up to about 20-22 in future runs. It had 5F for us Wednesday morning in yesterday's 12Z run. Looks like precip down here in SE TX will end Monday afternoon before temps drop to freezing. No travel issues south of I-10.
I added the NAM to the mix of models in the plot. Only 3 points for it so far. ICON is still way colder for Monday afternoon through Tuesday, but it may be clearing out the clouds too soon.
http://wxman57.com/images/Models00ZJan12HOU.JPG
I got bad news for you. It’s probably going to be more like 10-15 days of actual winter this year and by actual winter, I mean highs less than 40.

1 likes
#NeverSummer
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2627
- Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:47 am
- Location: North Fort Worth
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Evan increasing talk of precip even as the models make me think now DFW will get screwed. He did have to get in a dig making fun of the Euro for going drier of course. His anti-"influencer" kick is really getting annoying.
I'm concerned this will be the pile-up situation in 2021 where we have basically nothing except a little tiny amount of precip that freezes in a few spots, so they will have school Tuesday and then there are wrecks.
We need a more powerful low than modeled to really squeeze out some sleet/snow. A dusting of sleet won't be enough to keep people home safe Monday/Tuesday.
I'm concerned this will be the pile-up situation in 2021 where we have basically nothing except a little tiny amount of precip that freezes in a few spots, so they will have school Tuesday and then there are wrecks.
We need a more powerful low than modeled to really squeeze out some sleet/snow. A dusting of sleet won't be enough to keep people home safe Monday/Tuesday.
3 likes
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
rwfromkansas wrote:Even increasing talk of precip even as the models make me think now DFW will get screwed.
I'm concerned this will be the pile-up situation in 2021 where we have basically nothing except a little tiny amount of precip that freezes in a few spots, so they will have school Tuesday and then there are wrecks.
We need a more powerful low than modeled to really squeeze out some sleet/snow. A dusting of sleet won't be enough to keep people home safe Monday/Tuesday.
Thankfully Monday is a holiday, so schools are closed.
0 likes
Tammie - Sherman TX
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
rwfromkansas wrote:Even increasing talk of precip even as the models make me think now DFW will get screwed.
I'm concerned this will be the pile-up situation in 2021 where we have basically nothing except a little tiny amount of precip that freezes in a few spots, so they will have school Tuesday and then there are wrecks.
We need a more powerful low than modeled to really squeeze out some sleet/snow. A dusting of sleet won't be enough to keep people home safe Monday/Tuesday.
At least on Fox 4 this morning and NBC 5 last night precip chances are pretty good regardless of model mayhem. I'm not worried, this isn't supposed to be a massive event anyway.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2627
- Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:47 am
- Location: North Fort Worth
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Yeah, at least we didn't go from 8 inches to 1 like our friends up north. Ugh. Just frustrating not really knowing until we get close in 2024.
0 likes
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 192
- Joined: Sun Jan 10, 2010 5:36 pm
- Location: Richardson, Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
rwfromkansas wrote:Evan increasing talk of precip even as the models make me think now DFW will get screwed. He did have to get in a dig making fun of the Euro for going drier of course. His anti-"influencer" kick is really getting annoying.
I'm concerned this will be the pile-up situation in 2021 where we have basically nothing except a little tiny amount of precip that freezes in a few spots, so they will have school Tuesday and then there are wrecks.
We need a more powerful low than modeled to really squeeze out some sleet/snow. A dusting of sleet won't be enough to keep people home safe Monday/Tuesday.
Honestly, state should recommend school closures statewide to preserve the power grid.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
0 likes
- Rgv20
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2466
- Age: 39
- Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 5:42 pm
- Location: Edinburg/McAllen Tx
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
jaguars_22 wrote:Does the rgem stop with the cold again? I’ve never seen this before on models but it’s starting to show up on all of them… it gets down to cuero area and backs up
The NAM 12KM and to a lesser extent the NAM 3KM does the same thing for me in Deep South Texas. It seems the cold runs out of steam on Sunday and than looks to get a secondary push come Monday.
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 192
- Joined: Sun Jan 10, 2010 5:36 pm
- Location: Richardson, Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Wthrfan wrote:57's wall?!Ralph's Weather wrote:Upstream temps this weekend are modelled to approach -70F in MT and temps as far south as NW OK look to be -10s. I cannot see how this air mass puts brakes on before it gets well into the Gulf.
Like Trump’s…easily breached.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
0 likes
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 597
- Joined: Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:26 pm
- Location: Victoria TX
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Rgv I was looking at the simulated satellite and it looks like the gfs kicks in the pacific moisture flow towards south Texas… I thought this was some kind of huge blast of cold but it looks like a dud… can someone explain why the front would back up so quickly?
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2627
- Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:47 am
- Location: North Fort Worth
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Just took a quick glance but the 12 GFS seems to be increasing snow in OK again around Tulsa. Looks like around .5 to .10 of an inch maybe for northern DFW into the western burbs.
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38099
- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
rwfromkansas wrote:Yeah, at least we didn't go from 8 inches to 1 like our friends up north. Ugh. Just frustrating not really knowing until we get close in 2024.
I wish I could believe the GFS and NAM trying to show a heavier band but I'm sure the Euro coming in with a dusting again will happen

.
Last edited by Brent on Fri Jan 12, 2024 10:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes
#neversummer
- ThunderSleetDreams
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1477
- Age: 43
- Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
- Location: S of Weimar, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
jaguars_22 wrote:Rgv I was looking at the simulated satellite and it looks like the gfs kicks in the pacific moisture flow towards south Texas… I thought this was some kind of huge blast of cold but it looks like a dud… can someone explain why the front would back up so quickly?
Here’s a hint…. It’s not going to back up.
1 likes
#NeverSummer
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
- Rgv20
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2466
- Age: 39
- Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 5:42 pm
- Location: Edinburg/McAllen Tx
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
jaguars_22 wrote:Rgv I was looking at the simulated satellite and it looks like the gfs kicks in the pacific moisture flow towards south Texas… I thought this was some kind of huge blast of cold but it looks like a dud… can someone explain why the front would back up so quickly?
Going off of history and experience I highly doubt this Arctic Front will slow down as much as current models are forecasting.
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 597
- Joined: Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:26 pm
- Location: Victoria TX
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Thundersleet so it’s a normal computer glitch lol…even the short range models show this
this system must be complex

0 likes
- CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8731
- Age: 57
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
NWS FTW mentioned the GFS was sniffing out another impulse Monday night with some lift, but until there is better consensus have left out precipitation for Monday night.
2 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 49 guests