Texas Winter 2023-2024
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Interesting 500 mb height pattern on the GFS, first few days of February look to be near average, but pieces of the puzzle are beginning to come together after that
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- jasons2k
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Ntxw wrote:But as we see from here as well, you live and die by the models if that's your only backing (model-ology.) Experience, and skill can sometimes beat the models, both warm or cold perspectives.
Times of change creates problems at the surface for guidance.
Exactly. It's important to have an appreciation for good old-fashioned forecasting skills.
Harold Taft at KXAS in DFW and Roy Leep at WTVT down in Tampa were both pioneers in TV Broadcast Meteorology and introduced a number of "firsts" in the field. Pretty remarkable given the market sizes, especially at the time. Even though they were early adopters of technology, they always, always emphasized "don't forget to go outside and check for yourself." This had both literal and figurative meanings of course - but they applied it and were famous for taking a quick walk outside before every weather broadcast to check the sky with their own eyes. During severe weather events, Harold was known for running outside and back between breaks to see for himself what the sky was doing.
Moral of the story - don't rely so much on technology that you forget the basics and old rules of thumb. I keep thinking about Star Wars and how this incredible "technological terror" was created but the Rebels won anyway.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Probably gonna get icy here soon... We never did get above freezing
Winter Storm Warning one county away and school closings have started

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#neversummer
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
I do like Ponder for a lot of things. Just this he has played it up too much.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Started raining lightly and temp dropped to 32 with ice starting to form of my barbed wire fences.
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#neversummer
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
29 and rain at the airport with a definite glaze on the vehicles 

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- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Brent wrote:29 and rain at the airport with a definite glaze on the vehicles
Based on social media reports, it looks like things are starting with a bang up in Oklahoma. Hopefully, things warm and melt before any serious problems can occur.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
bubba hotep wrote:Brent wrote:29 and rain at the airport with a definite glaze on the vehicles
Based on social media reports, it looks like things are starting with a bang up in Oklahoma. Hopefully, things warm and melt before any serious problems can occur.
Yeah that first round was way worse than I expected tbh
But then again it's been so cold lately the ground is probably nearly frozen. I mean snow and ice has survived for a week
At least they don't seem too concerned about power outages right now and supposedly after lunch tomorrow were gonna be good so we'll see
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#neversummer
- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
00z 3k NAM with a rain bomb for South Central Texas


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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
EVERYTHING is Coated in Ice, even the ground.
27°F
27°F
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Down to 33.6 here in Ponder. Dewpoint is 28. Maybe.......
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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
HockeyTx82 wrote:Down to 33.6 here in Ponder. Dewpoint is 28. Maybe.......
Freezing line slowly creeping south down 75
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
bubba hotep wrote:HockeyTx82 wrote:Down to 33.6 here in Ponder. Dewpoint is 28. Maybe.......
Freezing line slowly creeping south down 75
What does your gut tell you. Are we going to wake up to some potential problems? Or will the absolute freezing stay out of our area?
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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
My weather app just said snow starting in 1 hr here in Ponder. What gives?
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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Minor icing starting along 380 corridor now. Most roads should be ok but with prior cold I would expect some bridge issues for Collin and Denton Counties overnight. Elevated surfaces could glaze down to I-20. By sunrise I expect WAA to have pushed the freeze line back north out of DFW hopefully.
Up near Red River more significant icing is likely with surface roads iced over until mid morning there.
Up near Red River more significant icing is likely with surface roads iced over until mid morning there.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
We've actually warmed 2 degrees here... But I've seen zero snow or even sleet. It is straight freezing rain 

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#neversummer
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
HockeyTx82 wrote:My weather app just said snow starting in 1 hr here in Ponder. What gives?
Like most weather apps, it’s trash.
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"Don't let wishcastin get in the way of your forecastin"


- txtwister78
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Thunderstorms and 39 degrees in San Antonio. Some areas within the city are already approaching 2 inches.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Yes, good to see part of the drought bullseye in San Antonio getting significant amounts. I hope the western side in need also ends up getting similar this week.
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