2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[AutoPenalti]

We still have the spring barrier to get through. Very ominous though.

[SFLcane]

June Hurricane?

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1755285391790477641

[JetFuel_SE]

Close up of the wet caribbeam from todays Feb NMME.

https://i.postimg.cc/dtk5sM1k/llll.jpg

Nicaragua got that hurricane shield or something?

[NotSparta]

We still have the spring barrier to get through. Very ominous though.

Coming off a strong El Nino, there is no spring barrier. La Nina is on the way, the question is how strong it gets

[cycloneye]

June Hurricane?

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1755285391790477641

Good words from Mark.

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1755287965050282398

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1755338188866900158

[SFLcane]

When Andy is concerned you know it could get very bad. 3 months to go hope things change!

 https://x.com/andyhazelton/status/1755345494941794416

[weeniepatrol]

We still have the spring barrier to get through. Very ominous though.

Coming off a strong El Nino, there is no spring barrier. La Nina is on the way, the question is how strong it gets

Yup. User ustropics made a post in the enso thread; 100% of all El Niños of this magnitude (n=10) transitioned to neutral the following season and about half became La Niña. Enso will be at BEST not unfavorable and likely will be favorable.

[NotSparta]

 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1755338188866900158

2017 isn't a very good example. February was months before the MDR began to warm

[weeniepatrol]

(Today vs 4 July 2018)

[weeniepatrol]

 https://twitter.com/wxtca/status/1755462261316174249

[Blown Away]

June Hurricane?

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1755285391790477641

I like 1933 as a comp for 2024 with regards to predicted #'s and tracks... June hurricane in 1933...

[SFLcane]

First time phil posts the NMME...

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1755614145003782335

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1755625375843934507

[SFLcane]

We still have the spring barrier to get through. Very ominous though.

As Not Sparta alluded to coming of a strong el nino there isn't much of a spring barrier here the only question is how strong will the developing La Nina be.

[Teban54]

First time phil posts the NMME...

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1755614145003782335

From the replies:
 https://x.com/catinsight/status/1755620314447229029



 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1755630897410302264

[cycloneye]

Have a question about La Niña effects.

If La NIña becomes a strong one, would there be more out to sea (Many fish cyclones) or there will be a parade to the Caribbean and CentralAmerica?

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1755650386415718631

[chaser1]

First time phil posts the NMME...

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1755614145003782335

From the replies:
 https://x.com/catinsight/status/1755620314447229029



 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1755630897410302264

Seems to me that a 2023 Atlantic steering pattern (weaker/lower W Atlantic 500mb heights = early poleward tracks), would not be what I would anticipate. If for no other reason then taking in consideration the North American Multi-Model Ensemble average outlook calling for the above-normal precipitation across tropical Atlantic at the lower latitudes and all the way across to C. America. I suspect that any broad fanning of storm tracks would occur a good deal further west Caribbean and GOM. That would infer that a 1933 "ish" year would be "Landfall City" (maybe a good year to reconsider that Caribbean or GOM destination wedding for somewhere like Bermuda, Martha's Vineyard or Baja instead?)

[chaser1]

Have a question about La Niña effects.

If La NIña becomes a strong one, would there be more out to sea (Many fish cyclones) or there will be a parade to the Caribbean and CentralAmerica?

It's a good question however I don't believe there is any direct ENSO correlation either way. At first blush, I would think "lower" sea-level pressures would generally occur during a LaNina event. I would then extrapolate that lower heights might similarly also be reflected throughout the lower and middle columns of the atmosphere as well? My assumption may be off base but if true, this might lead me to think "lower mid level heights" = weaker Bermuda High = greater number of recurves.

With the majority of long Atlantic tracks tending to recurve during any given year, I would not think that La Nina itself would suggest a tendency for an increased percentage of westward basin tracks. On the other hand, one might speculate that broader basin favorable conditions during La Nina events might allow for both 1) an increase of overall numbers of storms and 2) broader basin wide instability thus increasing risk for cyclogenesis throughout the Atlantic basin. At a minimum it would seem that just this increase in overall enhanced favorability of tropical cyclone development alone would increase the risk & frequency of W. Atlantic basin development and tracks during La Nina years.