Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Ntxw]

NTWX I dont think any of the guidance has a good handle on the pattern at all, trying to shove the arctic jet west towards the pacific, doesnt make any sense to me at all, im seeing some pretty contradictory signals in the guidance, MJO now in phase 8, that pacific jet is causing a lot of problems with guidance

The mid January SSW should be reflecting in the upcoming period. We have that going for us. To see hints of the TPV displaced into S-Central Canada over its usual climo is helping some assurance of the propagation. The question asked before was where this cold air would be setting up if at all, getting some hints now.

[jasons2k]

Been trying to tell y’all since the big freeze it was over. Certain bloggers like the clicks. Careful with the long range models, they’ll get you every time.

[txtwister78]

Just to recapture some thoughts. Many of us felt that after mid-February the pattern would turn colder. As we are approaching this period (not yet there) the models have quietly surfaced a cold air source. The delivery mechanism isn't there yet, but then not long ago a cold air source wasn't either but now is. We're only as good as the models are able to get the pattern right.

Correct and we had some clues via the teleconnections (albeit a narrow window) that this was on the table around the 17th-21st range. The models love to play tricks when it comes to arctic air/delivery south as we've seen on numerous occasions. So, while it may have been tempting to follow the "white flag/winter is over see ya next year" messaging I read yesterday from some, it's just another reminder that models are tools within a much larger puzzle when it comes to piecing together these patterns. Patience is often key. We're not there yet, but it certainly looks more believable today as opposed to yesterday for one final winter hoorah.

First ensemble run that really screams arctic cold thus far. Waiting on Euro

[Cpv17]

Been trying to tell y’all since the big freeze it was over. Certain bloggers like the clicks. Careful with the long range models, they’ll get you every time.

I wouldn’t rule out a couple freezes yet in southeast TX.

[Stratton23]

EPS is trending a bit towards the GEPS guidance, not as cold but definitely moving in that direction

[Brent]

Meanwhile some of these hi res models up here for tomorrow night come on... We deserve this one after the joke of the last 2 years

[txtwister78]

Was hoping to cash in on some rain today but activity has remained just north of SA. Hill Country and Austin corridor may need to watch out in the overnight hours for some big hail as outlined per SPC and perhaps an isolated Tornado or two.

[txtwister78]

Decent rainfall amounts so far across areas in the Hill Country that missed out (for the most part) on the rain received a few weeks ago.  

 https://x.com/ChrisSuchanWOAI/status/1756377085734461487

[snowballzzz]

Meanwhile some of these hi res models up here for tomorrow night come on... We deserve this one after the joke of the last 2 years

It seems to be trending more and more into our favor here in Tulsa for Monday morning. Although it will be 33-34 degrees, it would be nice to see some heavy snow.

[Anti-freeze]

Looks like it indeed hit the bullseye of the Hill Country's worst drought areas. Runoff upstream of some aquifer recharge zones.

Decent rainfall amounts so far across areas in the Hill Country that missed out (for the most part) on the rain received a few weeks ago.  

 https://x.com/ChrisSuchanWOAI/status/1756377085734461487

[Texas Snowman]

Hmmm….to believe or not believe?



 https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1756419976032919700

[gpsnowman]

Looks like it indeed hit the bullseye of the Hill Country's worst drought areas. Runoff upstream of some aquifer recharge zones.

Decent rainfall amounts so far across areas in the Hill Country that missed out (for the most part) on the rain received a few weeks ago.  

 https://x.com/ChrisSuchanWOAI/status/1756377085734461487

I think the timing of the recent storms over the Hill Country and North Texas has really put a dent in the effects of the dreaded cedar pollen. This has been one of the more allergy-free(mostly) late January/early February stretches I have had in years. Thank God.

[Cpv17]

Meanwhile some of these hi res models up here for tomorrow night come on... We deserve this one after the joke of the last 2 years

It seems to be trending more and more into our favor here in Tulsa for Monday morning. Although it will be 33-34 degrees, it would be nice to see some heavy snow.

Didn’t realize we had 2 people in here that live in Tulsa.

[Cpv17]

Hmmm….to believe or not believe?



 https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1756419976032919700

At this point I’m torn and really don’t know what to believe.

[Texas Snowman]

Certainly not as cold, but shades of Christmas Eve 2009?

 https://x.com/jeff_piotrowski/status/1756411030920458334

[Texas Snowman]

Well, OKC television met Mike Morgan is all in…
 https://x.com/mikemorgankfor/status/1756416016249196608

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 same lol im conflicted, but with the MJO finally moving into the favorable phases we have been waiting for forever, i think things will trend colder, but at the same time that pacific jet isnt going anywhere, so its just like what’s its going to be?, very difficult pattern ahead

[Itryatgolf]

I think the -pdo hurt us this winter, which isn't typical in an El Niño. I'm still hoping for one last opportunity here but will take alot of things to come together. Also, if the tpv really is trapped and in southern Canada, imo, the models should be alot colder than indicated, especially the gfs.

[Ntxw]

Cpv17 same lol im conflicted, but with the MJO finally moving into the favorable phases we have been waiting for forever, i think things will trend colder, but at the same time that pacific jet isnt going anywhere, very difficult pattern ahead

You have a 560s dm ridge popping in NW North America. Sure it may not be the huge blasts we've seen but that kind of ridging many winters is THE -EPO cold shot type ridge. Everything is relative. There is a displaced TPV...

[Ntxw]

This is what I was mentioning yesterday that these type of upper flow patterns can have a disconnect. The upper flow says one thing but the at the surface can be another. Is it right? Not necessarily, either could win it but we've seen it happen before the bulldozer EPO ridge doesn't care. If there is a trof/weakness the cold air will try to spill into it.