Texas Winter 2023-2024

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Ntxw
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#3881 Postby Ntxw » Sat Feb 10, 2024 1:59 pm

Stratton23 wrote:NTWX I dont think any of the guidance has a good handle on the pattern at all, trying to shove the arctic jet west towards the pacific, doesnt make any sense to me at all, im seeing some pretty contradictory signals in the guidance, MJO now in phase 8, that pacific jet is causing a lot of problems with guidance


The mid January SSW should be reflecting in the upcoming period. We have that going for us. To see hints of the TPV displaced into S-Central Canada over its usual climo is helping some assurance of the propagation. The question asked before was where this cold air would be setting up if at all, getting some hints now.
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jasons2k
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#3882 Postby jasons2k » Sat Feb 10, 2024 2:16 pm

Been trying to tell y’all since the big freeze it was over. Certain bloggers like the clicks. Careful with the long range models, they’ll get you every time.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#3883 Postby txtwister78 » Sat Feb 10, 2024 2:33 pm

Ntxw wrote:Just to recapture some thoughts. Many of us felt that after mid-February the pattern would turn colder. As we are approaching this period (not yet there) the models have quietly surfaced a cold air source. The delivery mechanism isn't there yet, but then not long ago a cold air source wasn't either but now is. We're only as good as the models are able to get the pattern right.


Correct and we had some clues via the teleconnections (albeit a narrow window) that this was on the table around the 17th-21st range. The models love to play tricks when it comes to arctic air/delivery south as we've seen on numerous occasions. So, while it may have been tempting to follow the "white flag/winter is over see ya next year" messaging I read yesterday from some, it's just another reminder that models are tools within a much larger puzzle when it comes to piecing together these patterns. Patience is often key. We're not there yet, but it certainly looks more believable today as opposed to yesterday for one final winter hoorah.

First ensemble run that really screams arctic cold thus far. Waiting on Euro

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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#3884 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Feb 10, 2024 2:38 pm

jasons2k wrote:Been trying to tell y’all since the big freeze it was over. Certain bloggers like the clicks. Careful with the long range models, they’ll get you every time.


I wouldn’t rule out a couple freezes yet in southeast TX.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#3885 Postby Stratton23 » Sat Feb 10, 2024 2:44 pm

EPS is trending a bit towards the GEPS guidance, not as cold but definitely moving in that direction
Last edited by Stratton23 on Sat Feb 10, 2024 2:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#3886 Postby Brent » Sat Feb 10, 2024 2:45 pm

Meanwhile some of these hi res models up here for tomorrow night :froze: come on... We deserve this one after the joke of the last 2 years :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#3887 Postby txtwister78 » Sat Feb 10, 2024 3:02 pm

Was hoping to cash in on some rain today but activity has remained just north of SA. Hill Country and Austin corridor may need to watch out in the overnight hours for some big hail as outlined per SPC and perhaps an isolated Tornado or two.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#3888 Postby txtwister78 » Sat Feb 10, 2024 3:31 pm

Decent rainfall amounts so far across areas in the Hill Country that missed out (for the most part) on the rain received a few weeks ago.  

 https://x.com/ChrisSuchanWOAI/status/1756377085734461487

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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#3889 Postby snowballzzz » Sat Feb 10, 2024 3:44 pm

Brent wrote:Meanwhile some of these hi res models up here for tomorrow night :froze: come on... We deserve this one after the joke of the last 2 years :lol:


It seems to be trending more and more into our favor here in Tulsa for Monday morning. Although it will be 33-34 degrees, it would be nice to see some heavy snow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#3890 Postby Anti-freeze » Sat Feb 10, 2024 3:49 pm

Looks like it indeed hit the bullseye of the Hill Country's worst drought areas. Runoff upstream of some aquifer recharge zones.


txtwister78 wrote:Decent rainfall amounts so far across areas in the Hill Country that missed out (for the most part) on the rain received a few weeks ago.  

 https://x.com/ChrisSuchanWOAI/status/1756377085734461487

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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#3891 Postby Texas Snowman » Sat Feb 10, 2024 3:57 pm

Hmmm….to believe or not believe?

:think: :sick: :woo:

 https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1756419976032919700

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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#3892 Postby gpsnowman » Sat Feb 10, 2024 4:00 pm

Anti-freeze wrote:Looks like it indeed hit the bullseye of the Hill Country's worst drought areas. Runoff upstream of some aquifer recharge zones.


txtwister78 wrote:Decent rainfall amounts so far across areas in the Hill Country that missed out (for the most part) on the rain received a few weeks ago.  

 https://x.com/ChrisSuchanWOAI/status/1756377085734461487


I think the timing of the recent storms over the Hill Country and North Texas has really put a dent in the effects of the dreaded cedar pollen. This has been one of the more allergy-free(mostly) late January/early February stretches I have had in years. Thank God.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#3893 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Feb 10, 2024 4:03 pm

snowballzzz wrote:
Brent wrote:Meanwhile some of these hi res models up here for tomorrow night :froze: come on... We deserve this one after the joke of the last 2 years :lol:


It seems to be trending more and more into our favor here in Tulsa for Monday morning. Although it will be 33-34 degrees, it would be nice to see some heavy snow.


Didn’t realize we had 2 people in here that live in Tulsa.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#3894 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Feb 10, 2024 4:19 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:Hmmm….to believe or not believe?

:think: :sick: :woo:

 https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1756419976032919700



At this point I’m torn and really don’t know what to believe.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#3895 Postby Texas Snowman » Sat Feb 10, 2024 4:21 pm

Certainly not as cold, but shades of Christmas Eve 2009?

 https://x.com/jeff_piotrowski/status/1756411030920458334

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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#3896 Postby Texas Snowman » Sat Feb 10, 2024 4:23 pm

Well, OKC television met Mike Morgan is all in…
 https://x.com/mikemorgankfor/status/1756416016249196608

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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#3897 Postby Stratton23 » Sat Feb 10, 2024 4:30 pm

Cpv17 same lol im conflicted, but with the MJO finally moving into the favorable phases we have been waiting for forever, i think things will trend colder, but at the same time that pacific jet isnt going anywhere, so its just like what’s its going to be?, very difficult pattern ahead
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#3898 Postby Itryatgolf » Sat Feb 10, 2024 4:31 pm

I think the -pdo hurt us this winter, which isn't typical in an El Niño. I'm still hoping for one last opportunity here but will take alot of things to come together. Also, if the tpv really is trapped and in southern Canada, imo, the models should be alot colder than indicated, especially the gfs.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#3899 Postby Ntxw » Sat Feb 10, 2024 4:32 pm

Stratton23 wrote:Cpv17 same lol im conflicted, but with the MJO finally moving into the favorable phases we have been waiting for forever, i think things will trend colder, but at the same time that pacific jet isnt going anywhere, very difficult pattern ahead


You have a 560s dm ridge popping in NW North America. Sure it may not be the huge blasts we've seen but that kind of ridging many winters is THE -EPO cold shot type ridge. Everything is relative. There is a displaced TPV...
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#3900 Postby Ntxw » Sat Feb 10, 2024 4:55 pm

This is what I was mentioning yesterday that these type of upper flow patterns can have a disconnect. The upper flow says one thing but the at the surface can be another. Is it right? Not necessarily, either could win it but we've seen it happen before the bulldozer EPO ridge doesn't care. If there is a trof/weakness the cold air will try to spill into it.

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