Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 96L)

[IcyTundra]

00Z CMC takes this to the FL panhandle in 10 days.

[Cpv17]

00Z CMC takes this to the FL panhandle in 10 days.

I think we all need to pay attention to this one. Absolutely wild for late June.

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle of next week while it moves generally
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[jlauderdal]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle of next week while it moves generally
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

GFS and Euro have similar paths for this storm as they do for Beryl; both storms in dangerous positions with real potential.

[Teban54]

It's the CMC, but yeah, the model for this wave just flipped from Honduras to FL Panhandle in a single run

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle of next week while it moves generally
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[zzzh]

Definitely keep an eye on this system

[Blinhart]

https://i.imgur.com/uJhIszV.png
Definitely keep an eye on this system

I would think they would have this as 96L.

[cycloneye]

https://i.imgur.com/uJhIszV.png
Definitely keep an eye on this system

I would think they would have this as 96L.

Invest is comming up very soon.

[cycloneye]

Look how well is turning already.

[Blown Away]

Come on NHC, 20/60 and no Invest 96???

[chaser1]

Fascinating how ASCAT nearly closes off a LLC as far south as 6.5N latitude..... in June no less Crazy times. Looking at satellite however, it appears that the broader mid-level low extends well NNE from that point, and I'd guess that by the time that this develops, a COC will likely be pulled up a tad to about 9N as any current LLC eventually gets pulled up around the right side of the broader MLC in about 48-72 hours.

[Beef Stew]

Really surprised this hasn't been tagged yet. I bet invest 96L and 30/70 is coming later today.

[BobHarlem]

Long range model spread on this one is pretty large, I don't think it follows exactly like Beryl . GFS is turning into into the shredder islands. Canadian has it in for Houston.

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle of next week while it moves generally
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[ChrisH-UK]

Models are been aggressive on this one as well as Beryl.

HWRF model run of Beryl, this wave is the system on the far right of the run.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

Models are been aggressive on this one as well as Beryl.

HWRF model run

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/4536/cnA2ry.gif [/url]

Another one behind it.


This is an active june. Not ass active as 2005 but dang. We better keep our eyes on the tropics

It has 48 hours to bmform 2 storms and equal 2005

[FireRat]

Pure madness! Reminds me of 2005, hopefully won't remind us of that July with the intensities too...

For now the tracks are similar to the duo of Dennis & Emily.

[Emmett_Brown]

12Z Euro keeps it as a wave or very weak low through the Caribbean.

[ChrisH-UK]

Models are been aggressive on this one as well as Beryl.

HWRF model run

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/4536/cnA2ry.gif [/url]

Another one behind it.


This is an active june. Not ass active as 2005 but dang. We better keep our eyes on the tropics

It has 48 hours to bmform 2 storms and equal 2005

Opps in my haste this is the Beryl run, this wave is the one on the right,