ATL: BERYL - Models

[Kazmit]

Given Beryl is now a hurricane, and the latest euro run, it’s becoming more clear that the GFS has had more merit than the euro with Beryl over the last few days.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Not saying this will bomb out to 140kt like the 12z HWRF has buuuuuut...

[HurricaneBrain]

Yep - stronger system will move more poleward.

https://i.ibb.co/Wp1nSV2/14-km-EPS-Global-Cyclones-Caribbean-Ens-MSLP-Spaghettios.gif

Presented without comment

[aspen]

Not saying this will bomb out to 140kt like the 12z HWRF has buuuuuut...
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bd3df900866214fcc7269d763e338ba667c200d81f7f55554ec8db4a7a1b3e66.png

Everyone likes to rag on the HWRF for going overkill with intensity estimates, but this is another great example (along with Dorian on 8/31/19) of how well it can do with predicting short-term structural evolution.

[Category5Kaiju]

Not saying this will bomb out to 140kt like the 12z HWRF has buuuuuut...
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bd3df900866214fcc7269d763e338ba667c200d81f7f55554ec8db4a7a1b3e66.png

Everyone likes to rag on the HWRF for going overkill with intensity estimates, but this is another great example (along with Dorian on 8/31/19) of how well it can do with predicting short-term structural evolution.

HWRF, imho, usually shows near-worst or worst case scenarios that a certain storm could exhibit. Many of the times, it's pretty off the rails. But there are definitely a select few times when it hits the jackpot.

[StormPyrate]

https://i.ibb.co/Wp1nSV2/14-km-EPS-Global-Cyclones-Caribbean-Ens-MSLP-Spaghettios.gif

Presented without comment

Could you share the spaghettios link please?

[ScottNAtlanta]

Not saying this will bomb out to 140kt like the 12z HWRF has buuuuuut...
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bd3df900866214fcc7269d763e338ba667c200d81f7f55554ec8db4a7a1b3e66.png

Everyone likes to rag on the HWRF for going overkill with intensity estimates, but this is another great example (along with Dorian on 8/31/19) of how well it can do with predicting short-term structural evolution.

HWRF, imho, usually shows near-worst or worst case scenarios that a certain storm could exhibit. Many of the times, it's pretty off the rails. But there are definitely a select few times when it hits the jackpot.

Lord...if the HWRF is right, this really is Emily 2005 part 2 (I was focusing on the track, but it looks like intensity could be on the table too if really not likely.)

[HurricaneBelle]

Not saying this will bomb out to 140kt like the 12z HWRF has buuuuuut...
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bd3df900866214fcc7269d763e338ba667c200d81f7f55554ec8db4a7a1b3e66.png

Everyone likes to rag on the HWRF for going overkill with intensity estimates, but this is another great example (along with Dorian on 8/31/19) of how well it can do with predicting short-term structural evolution.

If it were more consistent with its intensity forecasts panning out yes, but otherwise it's the Stopped Clock Syndrome

[IcyTundra]

If I remember correctly from the 2023 verification report from the NHC the HWRF is actually the best model at intensity forecasts through 60 hours. Once you get out to 96-120 hours it is rather poor at forecasting intensity.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

If I remember correctly from the 2023 verification report from the NHC the HWRF is actually the best model at intensity forecasts through 60 hours. Once you get out to 96-120 hours it is rather poor at forecasting intensity.

That's true, and the HWRF has verified quite well thus far.

[ColdMiser123]

GFS much stronger in the west Caribbean than previous runs

[lsuhurricane]

18 GFS - where’s the shear at? Maintains solid hurricane strength to the tip of Yucatán. This does not bode well…

[Hurricaneman]

GFS much stronger in the west Caribbean than previous runs

Seems to go more around the TUTT by going further south as opposed to through the TUTT which in turn lead to a stronger system in the western Caribbean

[aspen]

If I remember correctly from the 2023 verification report from the NHC the HWRF is actually the best model at intensity forecasts through 60 hours. Once you get out to 96-120 hours it is rather poor at forecasting intensity.

Looking at the 12z HWRF through 60 hours, it’s showing a Cat 2 tomorrow that levels out due to brief eyewall disruption, then a Cat 3 landfall in Saint Vincent on Monday. It enters the Caribbean with a very robust eyewall, so if that pans out, a Cat 4 in the eastern Caribbean is possible.

[HurricaneBrain]

GFS now has her moving NW over the tip of the Yucatán…

[Hurricaneman]

GFS now has her moving NW over the tip of the Yucatán…

Yep, this run says south Texas to me

[ColdMiser123]

Stronger system & weaker ridge to the north are allowing for a more northwest trajectory on approach to the Gulf Coast. Will get quite close to south Texas this run. Many options for this are still on the table after its trek through the Caribbean.

[hurricane2025]

Ridge weaker

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS is showing a cat 2 hurricane Beryl near South Padre island, needs to be watched along the Mexican and Texas coasts

[HurricaneBrain]

Borderline major close to South Padre… Obviously landfall locations will change run to run, but definite weakness in the ridge this go around for the GFS. Will be interesting to see how this pans out in the long run.