ATL: BERYL - Models

[tolakram]

6Z euro is a little north of 0Z. Continues a non-trend of back and forth from 0Z to 12Z.

[ColdMiser123]

ICON will bring a significant hurricane into Texas again. Northeast of the 0z run so far.

[hurricane2025]

Won’t be south Texas

[ColdMiser123]

Won’t be south Texas

You're right - spoke too soon. This will actually get uncomfortably close to Houston this run.

[USTropics]

12z ICON, end of run loop as it nears Texas coastline:

[shah83]

Right attack angle for humongous surge from the icon, there.

[Sailingtime]

I enjoy the way we can "see" into the future with these forecast tracks but as we know all too well the steering currents can and do change. Hope it goes in further South of Houston and miss CONUS completely.

[3090]

I enjoy the way we can "see" into the future with these forecast tracks but as we know all too well the steering currents can and do change. Hope it goes in further South of Houston and miss CONUS completely.

If a hurricane is some what pointed coming towards your area at this point (7+ days out), you should feel good. The models will change this far out. Guaranteed! And these models at that length will certainly swing pretty wildly.

[jaguars_22]

I agree! It’s been numerous times that we in Texas have been hit by models and it ends up going to Louisiana! I think beryl hits Corpus Christi as a strong hurricane… just my opinion… further south it goes in Caribbean the further south landfall in us will be…

[HoustonFrog]

It will end in Louisiana as usual.

[South Texas Storms]

12z Canadian and GFS both take it to TX in a little over a week. Still far out, but I don't like the northward trends in the models lately.

[captainbarbossa19]

12z Canadian and GFS both take it to TX in a little over a week. Still far out, but I don't like the northward trends in the models lately.

Yes. I noticed that the GFS shows that the system begins to stall off the coast of Mexico and then is picked up by a digging trough. This trough seems like it is going to play a critical role in the track based on timing and storm position.

[3090]

12z Canadian and GFS both take it to TX in a little over a week. Still far out, but I don't like the northward trends in the models lately.

It initially started sniffing north a lil bit yesterday. But we STILL are a good 7 days out from ANY POSSIBLE U.S. landfall. I will be very much concerned say come Tuesday if these trends continue.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Model runs starting to humble those who declared the gulf safe a few days ago.

[3090]

Model runs starting to humble those who declares the gulf safe a few days ago.

Very possibly true it APPEARS as time moves on.

[ColdMiser123]

HAFS-B will be too weak with central pressure by ~20 mb at 21z. Can't say I've ever seen a regional hurricane model too weak with forecast verification by 20 mb.

[CaneCurious]

It will end in Louisiana as usual.

Shush it. lol

[jabman98]

Won’t be south Texas

You're right - spoke too soon. This will actually get uncomfortably close to Houston this run.

UGH! I am not liking these model runs. Hopefully the usual takes apply for runs this far out. I haven't even finished dealing with post-derecho storm issues. Don't need a hurricane.

[Steve]

IT IS NOT, there is verification to prove it. This is the second time you've been corrected.

I remember Mark weras CMC was the most accurate with Ivan 2004 I think if memory serves me right ?

2004? Most certainly not. It's been much better since a recent upgrade just a few years ago. It's now tied and sometimes beats the GFS within 5 days according to verification. Now, in my opinion, longer than 5 days both are mostly entertainment. When they are correct it's hard to say they are actually correct vs lucky.

Quick off topic I’m pretty sure it was the UKMET that showed the loop back down the Atlantic and into the Gulf.

[Stratton23]

Euro initializes the storm at 995 mb, almost 40 mb on where its actually yet, you can pretty much toss that model run in the trash, comically bad