2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[Teban54]

Not an indicator but not sure where to drop these overview loops.

https://i.imgur.com/RFM1OXp.gif

The Atlantic, 2024: SAL? What?

[Category5Kaiju]

Not an indicator but not sure where to drop these overview loops.

https://i.imgur.com/RFM1OXp.gif

The Atlantic, 2024: SAL? What?

Beryl: spits in the face of climatology

[FireRat]

June 30th, crazy scene
https://i.imgur.com/s0v2VuF.png

Might as well be August 30th

[NotSparta]

Category 4 hurricane in the MDR before June is even over is about as reliable a signal as you can get for a hyperactive season. All those super aggressive ones everyone has made are certainly looking good right now

[Category5Kaiju]

At this point, assuming Beryl for whatever reason fails to achieve it, I'm expecting this season to produce several Category 5 hurricanes.

We've had hyperactive years (1995, 1999, 2010, and 2020 as examples) that didn't feature a single Category 5 hurricane. We've had hyperactive years (2003 and 2004 as examples) that featured one Category 5.

I genuinely believe this season will produce multiple Category 5 hurricanes, possibly even 3 or more. I can't believe I'm saying this, but here we go.

[Teban54]

June 30, 2024

[LarryWx]

Total # of NS through July 1st (excluding NS before May 1):

2024: 3 with small chance for 4 due to 96L
2023: 3
2022: 3
2021: 5
2020: 4
2019: 1
2018: 1
2017: 2
2016: 3
2015: 2
2014: 1
2013: 2
2012: 4
2011: 1
2010: 1
2009: 0
2008: 1
2007: 2
2006: 1
2005: 2
2004: 0
2003: 1
2002: 0
2001: 1
2000: 0
1999: 1
1998: 0
1997: 2
1996: 1
1995: 1

AVG 1995-2023: 1.5

So, going back to 1995, only 2021, 2020, and 2012 had a higher #.

[Chris90]

Beryl is about the biggest warning shot you can possibly get for a hyperactive season. She has broken records from 1933 AND 2005.
Broke record for farthest east hurricane so early in the season, a title previously held by the 1933 Trinidad hurricane.
Broke record for earliest Category 4 hurricane in a season, a title previously held by Hurricane Dennis from 2005.

While 2020 holds record for storm count, 1933 and 2005 really are in a league of their own when it comes to intensity and ACE. I would honestly be surprised if 2024 doesn't manage to exceed 200 ACE.

August 20th is weeks away, but the bell is probably already rung. 1933 stayed active from June-October and 2005 stayed productive too. Most intense activity will almost assuredly occur during ASO like those seasons, but it wouldn't surprise me if July manages to produce another major.

The storm I've been thinking about recently is Lee and what he managed to pull off during a niño year. Some of those model runs were indicating a sub-900mb peak. I wonder if we'll see an open Atlantic CV hurricane go sub-900 this year now that a cool ENSO regime is taking over and giving the ATL a boost that Lee didn't have last year.

[Category5Kaiju]

Beryl is about the biggest warning shot you can possibly get for a hyperactive season. She has broken records from 1933 AND 2005.
Broke record for farthest east hurricane so early in the season, a title previously held by the 1933 Trinidad hurricane.
Broke record for earliest Category 4 hurricane in a season, a title previously held by Hurricane Dennis from 2005.

While 2020 holds record for storm count, 1933 and 2005 really are in a league of their own when it comes to intensity and ACE. I would honestly be surprised if 2024 doesn't manage to exceed 200 ACE.

August 20th is weeks away, but the bell is probably already rung. 1933 stayed active from June-October and 2005 stayed productive too. Most intense activity will almost assuredly occur during ASO like those seasons, but it wouldn't surprise me if July manages to produce another major.

The storm I've been thinking about recently is Lee and what he managed to pull off during a niño year. Some of those model runs were indicating a sub-900mb peak. I wonder if we'll see an open Atlantic CV hurricane go sub-900 this year now that a cool ENSO regime is taking over and giving the ATL a boost that Lee didn't have last year.

It would really be something if we see a sub-900 storm. Only 5 have occurred since records started, with 2 of them from 2005.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Even though most people are paying attention to Beryl, the Jul Cansip is out. Noticeable difference in the precip anomalies with this month's run compared to last month's for ASO. Lower in the eastern gulf and SE US, and higher for CA/Mexico/Texas. There's also more of a far east recurve signal as well:

This month:


Last month:

[MetroMike]

Even though most people are paying attention to Beryl, the Jul Cansip is out. Noticeable difference in the precip anomalies with this month's run compared to last month's for ASO. Lower in the eastern gulf and SE US, and higher for CA/Mexico/Texas. There's also more of a far east recurve signal as well:

This month:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2024070100/cansips_apcpna_multimonth_atl_2.png

Last month:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2024060100/cansips_apcpna_multimonth_atl_3.png

Just when the experts think they had seasons overall pattern trends figured out the Cansip shows us not so fast. Unless the thinking for Oct to have many re curves rather skews the overall map. By then the MDR season is pretty much over.

[IcyTundra]

Even though most people are paying attention to Beryl, the Jul Cansip is out. Noticeable difference in the precip anomalies with this month's run compared to last month's for ASO. Lower in the eastern gulf and SE US, and higher for CA/Mexico/Texas. There's also more of a far east recurve signal as well:

This month:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2024070100/cansips_apcpna_multimonth_atl_2.png

Last month:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2024060100/cansips_apcpna_multimonth_atl_3.png

Slightly misleading if you just look at the ASO plots. Mostly skewed by the large below average precipitation area in the Gulf during October.

[Category5Kaiju]

We're doomed.

[tiger_deF]

I think we will see a lull for a few weeks after Beryl, in thanks to the enormous SAL outbreak spurred on by the climatological peak and storms coming off of higher latitudes from the Sahara. That being said, once we truly enter the peak all bets are off. It only takes one…

[Category5Kaiju]

I think we will see a lull for a few weeks after Beryl, in thanks to the enormous SAL outbreak spurred on by the climatological peak and storms coming off of higher latitudes from the Sahara. That being said, once we truly enter the peak all bets are off. It only takes one…

Ngl, I wouldn't be surprised if the Atlantic decides to crank out another powerhouse, impactful Cape Verde hurricane by the end of this month. Kind of basing this off of the weirdo wacko storm that Beryl is, as well as how 2005 produced a Category 5 once every month from July to October (interestingly, near the ends of each month too).

[Teban54]

Totally normal seasonal timeline:

[CrazyC83]

I think we will see a lull for a few weeks after Beryl, in thanks to the enormous SAL outbreak spurred on by the climatological peak and storms coming off of higher latitudes from the Sahara. That being said, once we truly enter the peak all bets are off. It only takes one…

That may only keep storms in check and not prevent waves from developing. We might go through several names there, only to have them dissipate quickly (or have to wait until near land).

[chaser1]

Beryl is about the biggest warning shot you can possibly get for a hyperactive season. She has broken records from 1933 AND 2005.
Broke record for farthest east hurricane so early in the season, a title previously held by the 1933 Trinidad hurricane.
Broke record for earliest Category 4 hurricane in a season, a title previously held by Hurricane Dennis from 2005.

While 2020 holds record for storm count, 1933 and 2005 really are in a league of their own when it comes to intensity and ACE. I would honestly be surprised if 2024 doesn't manage to exceed 200 ACE.

August 20th is weeks away, but the bell is probably already rung. 1933 stayed active from June-October and 2005 stayed productive too. Most intense activity will almost assuredly occur during ASO like those seasons, but it wouldn't surprise me if July manages to produce another major.

The storm I've been thinking about recently is Lee and what he managed to pull off during a niño year. Some of those model runs were indicating a sub-900mb peak. I wonder if we'll see an open Atlantic CV hurricane go sub-900 this year now that a cool ENSO regime is taking over and giving the ATL a boost that Lee didn't have last year.

Isaac just called looking for his weak little sister (Beryl)

[zzzh]

Current Atlantic ace ranks 3rd since 1951, trailing 1951 (had a long lived subtropical hu), 1966 (had a major hurricane in the Gulf), it should be #1 tomorrow if those c5 wind maintains .

[tolakram]

Totally normal seasonal timeline:
https://i.postimg.cc/66VmXmWr/image.png

A good example of why purple is not a good color for cat 5. Where's hink?