ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Keldeo1997]

Based on AF recon looks like Beryl is starting an EWR if not now fairly soon.

Eye is contracting rapidly on IR so it might be trying to rush another one.

[DirtyDish]

I was hoping the EWRC would wait for a little while longer so the shear could get involved but the high shear zone looks a ways out yet to me (albeit I was just looking at water vapor imagery). Im far from an expert on anything so maybe there is enough shear around to do damage now?

[Charleswachal]

I was hoping the EWRC would wait for a little while longer so the shear could get involved but the high shear zone looks a ways out yet to me (albeit I was just looking at water vapor imagery). Im far from an expert on anything so maybe there is enough shear around to do damage now?

Shear will still damage Beryl no matter what. The question is how much and if it causes Beryl to weaken as much as the computer models are showing is unknown at this time.

[Hurricane2022]

Looks like Beryl finally weakened some. But the NHC will likely put it at 150 - 155 kt in the next intermediate advisory.

[Xyls]

Looks like Beryl finally weakened some.

Is this due to shear or EWRC at the moment?

[Hurricane2022]

Looks like Beryl finally weakened some.

Is this due to shear or EWRC at the moment?

Likely due to EWRC.

[kevin]

Last two passes support 140 - 145 kt (150 kt FL and 148 kt SFMR). The first pass supported 150 - 155 kt (164 kt FL and 165 kt SFMR). I expect NHC to go with 145 - 150 kt, I personally would go with 150 kt to represent the peak intensity and then show weakening below cat 5 status in the next few hours as Beryl seems to enter its second EWRC.

[Buck]

...BERYL EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY... ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...
8:00 AM AST Tue Jul 2
Location: 15.0°N 67.9°W
Moving: WNW at 22 mph
Min pressure: 934 mb
Max sustained: 165 mph

[Hurricane2022]

Surprisingly, the NHC only changed the pressure to 934 mb. Officially remains at 165 mph.

[Hurricane2022]

Surprisingly, the NHC only changed the pressure to 934 mb. Officially remains at 165 mph.

Well, So I think I can go back to bed.

[Category5Kaiju]

Before it begins to weaken, whenever that happens, I wonder if Beryl will be able to reach a sub-930 mbar pressure....

[kevin]

Beryl was stronger than 145 kt, but I can respect the NHC's decision since it currently is definitely no longer 150 - 155 kt and will soon probably drop below cat 5 status. There were clear 150 kt values both in terms of FL winds and SFMR 2 hours ago with a 933mb/15kt dropsonde so I fully expect Beryl to get a slight upgrade in peak intensity to 150kt/932mb in post-season analysis.

[aspen]

I’m very surprised they didn’t go with any upgrade. That first pass was most likely 931/150-155. Don’t know why they decided to basically ignore it.

[Teban54]

I’m very surprised they didn’t go with any upgrade. That first pass was most likely 931/150-155. Don’t know why they decided to basically ignore it.

The only explanation I could give is that NHC is giving an update for 12z, and the current intensity at 12z is likely no longer 150 kt.

[jlauderdal]

https://i.imgur.com/9HTbzB4.png

PR getting slammed by tropical rainbands and then you can also see the eye on radar out of PR

We have our man on the ground in PR-Cycloneye, hopefully he is doing ok, heavy rain in PR is a big problem.

He posted Beryl's advisory at 4:29am cdt so that's a good sign.

Good, he has seen big hurricanes and flooding over the years.

[Buck]

I’m very surprised they didn’t go with any upgrade. That first pass was most likely 931/150-155. Don’t know why they decided to basically ignore it.

The only explanation I could give is that NHC is giving an update for 12z, and the current intensity at 12z is likely no longer 150 kt.

This. This happens with lots of storms every year. This is what post storm analysis is. It’s hard work for the NHC to balance all the data they have to ingest with a public facing informational front that has to be as accurate is possible so people can prepare. They’ll fix anything that needs to be fixed when they publish the “history books,” but for now we can all stop acting so butt hurt that they didn’t post her as 5 mph stronger.

[aspen]

I’m very surprised they didn’t go with any upgrade. That first pass was most likely 931/150-155. Don’t know why they decided to basically ignore it.

The only explanation I could give is that NHC is giving an update for 12z, and the current intensity at 12z is likely no longer 150 kt.

Yeah probably, but this could’ve been a good opportunity to have it operationally at that earlier peak. 931/150-155 for the 8am intermediate, then back to 140-145 for the 11am fill advisory. Or they could say in the discussion for 11am that Beryl peaked at 9-10z. I think they’ve gone that before, stating a peak between advisories in the following discussion.

[tolakram]

I’m very surprised they didn’t go with any upgrade. That first pass was most likely 931/150-155. Don’t know why they decided to basically ignore it.

The only explanation I could give is that NHC is giving an update for 12z, and the current intensity at 12z is likely no longer 150 kt.

Yeah probably, but this could’ve been a good opportunity to have it operationally at that earlier peak. 931/150-155 for the 8am intermediate, then back to 140-145 for the 11am fill advisory. Or they could say in the discussion for 11am that Beryl peaked at 9-10z. I think they’ve gone that before, stating a peak between advisories in the following discussion.

That kind of thing is best left for off season when the mets have time to think.

[cycloneye]

Just going to say this: It has been a cat 5 in the graveyard.

[Hurricane2022]

Just going to say this: It has been a cat 5 in the graveyard.

Yess you're back!!