ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1661 Postby Keldeo1997 » Tue Jul 02, 2024 6:20 am

NDG wrote:Based on AF recon looks like Beryl is starting an EWR if not now fairly soon.


Eye is contracting rapidly on IR so it might be trying to rush another one.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1662 Postby DirtyDish » Tue Jul 02, 2024 6:25 am

I was hoping the EWRC would wait for a little while longer so the shear could get involved but the high shear zone looks a ways out yet to me (albeit I was just looking at water vapor imagery). Im far from an expert on anything so maybe there is enough shear around to do damage now?
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1663 Postby Charleswachal » Tue Jul 02, 2024 6:26 am

DirtyDish wrote:I was hoping the EWRC would wait for a little while longer so the shear could get involved but the high shear zone looks a ways out yet to me (albeit I was just looking at water vapor imagery). Im far from an expert on anything so maybe there is enough shear around to do damage now?


Shear will still damage Beryl no matter what. The question is how much and if it causes Beryl to weaken as much as the computer models are showing is unknown at this time.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1664 Postby Hurricane2022 » Tue Jul 02, 2024 6:41 am

Looks like Beryl finally weakened some. But the NHC will likely put it at 150 - 155 kt in the next intermediate advisory.
Last edited by Hurricane2022 on Tue Jul 02, 2024 6:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1665 Postby Xyls » Tue Jul 02, 2024 6:43 am

Hurricane2022 wrote:Looks like Beryl finally weakened some.


Is this due to shear or EWRC at the moment?
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1666 Postby Hurricane2022 » Tue Jul 02, 2024 6:44 am

Xyls wrote:
Hurricane2022 wrote:Looks like Beryl finally weakened some.


Is this due to shear or EWRC at the moment?

Likely due to EWRC.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1667 Postby kevin » Tue Jul 02, 2024 6:44 am

Last two passes support 140 - 145 kt (150 kt FL and 148 kt SFMR). The first pass supported 150 - 155 kt (164 kt FL and 165 kt SFMR). I expect NHC to go with 145 - 150 kt, I personally would go with 150 kt to represent the peak intensity and then show weakening below cat 5 status in the next few hours as Beryl seems to enter its second EWRC.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1668 Postby Buck » Tue Jul 02, 2024 6:51 am

...BERYL EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY... ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...
8:00 AM AST Tue Jul 2
Location: 15.0°N 67.9°W
Moving: WNW at 22 mph
Min pressure: 934 mb
Max sustained: 165 mph
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1669 Postby Hurricane2022 » Tue Jul 02, 2024 6:51 am

Surprisingly, the NHC only changed the pressure to 934 mb. Officially remains at 165 mph.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1670 Postby Hurricane2022 » Tue Jul 02, 2024 6:53 am

Hurricane2022 wrote:Surprisingly, the NHC only changed the pressure to 934 mb. Officially remains at 165 mph.

Well, So I think I can go back to bed.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1671 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Jul 02, 2024 6:55 am

Before it begins to weaken, whenever that happens, I wonder if Beryl will be able to reach a sub-930 mbar pressure....
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1672 Postby kevin » Tue Jul 02, 2024 6:55 am

Beryl was stronger than 145 kt, but I can respect the NHC's decision since it currently is definitely no longer 150 - 155 kt and will soon probably drop below cat 5 status. There were clear 150 kt values both in terms of FL winds and SFMR 2 hours ago with a 933mb/15kt dropsonde so I fully expect Beryl to get a slight upgrade in peak intensity to 150kt/932mb in post-season analysis.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1673 Postby aspen » Tue Jul 02, 2024 6:59 am

I’m very surprised they didn’t go with any upgrade. That first pass was most likely 931/150-155. Don’t know why they decided to basically ignore it.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1674 Postby Teban54 » Tue Jul 02, 2024 7:01 am

aspen wrote:I’m very surprised they didn’t go with any upgrade. That first pass was most likely 931/150-155. Don’t know why they decided to basically ignore it.

The only explanation I could give is that NHC is giving an update for 12z, and the current intensity at 12z is likely no longer 150 kt.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1675 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Jul 02, 2024 7:07 am

kassi wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
Charleswachal wrote:https://i.imgur.com/9HTbzB4.png

PR getting slammed by tropical rainbands and then you can also see the eye on radar out of PR

We have our man on the ground in PR-Cycloneye, hopefully he is doing ok, heavy rain in PR is a big problem.

He posted Beryl's advisory at 4:29am cdt so that's a good sign.
Good, he has seen big hurricanes and flooding over the years.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1676 Postby Buck » Tue Jul 02, 2024 7:11 am

Teban54 wrote:
aspen wrote:I’m very surprised they didn’t go with any upgrade. That first pass was most likely 931/150-155. Don’t know why they decided to basically ignore it.

The only explanation I could give is that NHC is giving an update for 12z, and the current intensity at 12z is likely no longer 150 kt.


:uarrow: This. This happens with lots of storms every year. This is what post storm analysis is. It’s hard work for the NHC to balance all the data they have to ingest with a public facing informational front that has to be as accurate is possible so people can prepare. They’ll fix anything that needs to be fixed when they publish the “history books,” but for now we can all stop acting so butt hurt that they didn’t post her as 5 mph stronger. :lol:
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1677 Postby aspen » Tue Jul 02, 2024 7:13 am

Teban54 wrote:
aspen wrote:I’m very surprised they didn’t go with any upgrade. That first pass was most likely 931/150-155. Don’t know why they decided to basically ignore it.

The only explanation I could give is that NHC is giving an update for 12z, and the current intensity at 12z is likely no longer 150 kt.

Yeah probably, but this could’ve been a good opportunity to have it operationally at that earlier peak. 931/150-155 for the 8am intermediate, then back to 140-145 for the 11am fill advisory. Or they could say in the discussion for 11am that Beryl peaked at 9-10z. I think they’ve gone that before, stating a peak between advisories in the following discussion.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1678 Postby tolakram » Tue Jul 02, 2024 7:15 am

aspen wrote:
Teban54 wrote:
aspen wrote:I’m very surprised they didn’t go with any upgrade. That first pass was most likely 931/150-155. Don’t know why they decided to basically ignore it.

The only explanation I could give is that NHC is giving an update for 12z, and the current intensity at 12z is likely no longer 150 kt.

Yeah probably, but this could’ve been a good opportunity to have it operationally at that earlier peak. 931/150-155 for the 8am intermediate, then back to 140-145 for the 11am fill advisory. Or they could say in the discussion for 11am that Beryl peaked at 9-10z. I think they’ve gone that before, stating a peak between advisories in the following discussion.


That kind of thing is best left for off season when the mets have time to think.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1679 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 02, 2024 7:23 am

Just going to say this: It has been a cat 5 in the graveyard.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1680 Postby Hurricane2022 » Tue Jul 02, 2024 7:26 am

cycloneye wrote:Just going to say this: It has been a cat 5 in the graveyard.

Yess you're back!!
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