ATL: BERYL - Models

[Astromanía]

Maybe I will be the one receiving Beryl at home lol

[IcyTundra]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1808293278296768795

[Nederlander]

Should I feel safer in Houston yet?

I would say Galveston/Houston is unlikely but not impossible at this point. If Beryl stays stronger and less interaction with Jamaica and the Yucatán, then I could see a more northern track. Odds right now seem to favor TX/MX border to Corpus. Should have more model agreement once the upper air data is ingested into tonight’s model runs.

[kassi]

Hey, hey, everyone -

Been perusing the models thread here and I'm curious if any pro-mets have chimed in with which models they believe to be the most accurate with this system thus far. Our local mets haven't referenced any particular model at all, but one has already declared, "Beryl is going to XXX on this date at this time at this intensity." Pretty reckless, IMO - so I'm just wondering what other pro-mets' thoughts are about current models.

Also, have there been any model runs posted that include the steering pattern in the graphic?

Who said that? Or what channel?

[Blinhart]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1808293278296768795

So Lake Charles/Sabine Pass is starting to look like bulls-eye???

[tolakram]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1808293278296768795

So Lake Charles/Sabine Pass is starting to look like bulls-eye???

This far out, you want to call it? I don't understand this kind of post. Until the NHC says the gulf coast is in danger then IMO it's keep watching.

[ROCK]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1808293278296768795

So Lake Charles/Sabine Pass is starting to look like bulls-eye???

Not necessarily. Those are the ensemble runs. In some cases, they give hints to what upcoming global runs will look like. In this case the 0Z runs which should have the flight data in it so I am curious.

[Blinhart]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1808293278296768795

So Lake Charles/Sabine Pass is starting to look like bulls-eye???

This far out, you want to call it? I don't understand this kind of post. Until the NHC says the gulf coast is in danger then IMO it's keep watching.

No I don't want to call it, just saying that the Ensembles are zeroing in on that area.

[Hayabusa]

Very high init winds

[Wampadawg]

Hey, hey, everyone -

Been perusing the models thread here and I'm curious if any pro-mets have chimed in with which models they believe to be the most accurate with this system thus far. Our local mets haven't referenced any particular model at all, but one has already declared, "Beryl is going to XXX on this date at this time at this intensity." Pretty reckless, IMO - so I'm just wondering what other pro-mets' thoughts are about current models.

Also, have there been any model runs posted that include the steering pattern in the graphic?

A
Lot of reckless information about this system ,they forget that people take things they say literally.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The latest HWRF is stronger into Jamaica and brushes the coast, but because it was stronger it exits stronger and goes over just the tip of the Yucatan. It then starts to strengthen again and looks to head to the middle of the TX coast.

[Senobia]

So Lake Charles/Sabine Pass is starting to look like bulls-eye???

This far out, you want to call it? I don't understand this kind of post. Until the NHC says the gulf coast is in danger then IMO it's keep watching.

No I don't want to call it, just saying that the Ensembles are zeroing in on that area.

We're up to about 4732974329 "bulls eyes" at this point.
From what I've seen, a scant few of the ensembles have gone that far north and only a few times.

[sphelps8681]

When is the next model? Thanks in advance.

[txag2005]

When is the next model? Thanks in advance.

The sites I use (tropical tidbits, pivotal weather), it's usually the ICON first. Looks like the 0z run has started. GFS/CMC should start in an hour or so and the hurricane models after that. Euro comes in last I believe.

[IcyTundra]

Here we go 0Z ICON running now. Lets see if ICON sticks to its more northern track.

[HurricaneBrain]

ICON into SETX.

[sphelps8681]

ICON into SETX.

''

Dont say that. I am in SE Tx praying just a ts but dog gone. Things will probably change though. They always do. I hope.

[Category5Kaiju]

ICON into SETX.

https://i.ibb.co/BLFpxPg/IMG-8952.jpg

Houston: "That hurt."

[HurricaneBrain]

It is the ICON… Me personally, I wouldn’t be concerned until the GFS or EURO show a landfall in my area.

ICON into SETX.

''

Dont say that. I am in SE Tx praying just a ts but dog gone. Things will probably change though. They always do. I hope.

[AerospaceEng]

ICON into SETX.

That will wake up the Historians! Big yikes.