ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[kevin]

Center pass now, 949.8 mb with 17 kt winds. Supports 948mb/120-125kt. The southern side of Beryl is, as expected, significantly weaker. But unfortunately Jamaica will get the nasty northern portion of the hurricane.

Don't ask me how, I also don't know how this is physically possible considering the 20+ kt shear and how it looks, but Beryl seems to be an indestructible angry system and it's not giving up .

[LearnedHat]

Beryl is quickly weakening under strong SW-W shear. Recon should make a pass through the center shortly. First G-IV mission was last evening. As a result, the hurricane models have shifted back to the south with final landfall not far from Tampico. That's encouraging for Texas. The weaker it is in the SW Gulf, the farther west it goes as it misses the connection to the trof. Come on, Beryl, weaken!

Assuming South Texas is prepared for a weaker storm, I’d prefer it to hit close to the border and ride northward.

[xironman]

First recon pass, not yet at the center and 134 kt FL winds & 125 kt SFMR. Looks like Beryl is still 125 kt.

Looks terrible on satellite imagery. Don't think I believe 125 kts. Shear is hitting it hard.

I know SFMR can be dodgy, but the 134 FL should be pretty solid. I had looked worse earlier, almost looked like it got hit by mid level shear. There is also an upper high involved as well.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

First recon pass, not yet at the center and 134 kt FL winds & 125 kt SFMR. Looks like Beryl is still 125 kt.

Looks terrible on satellite imagery. Don't think I believe 125 kts. Shear is hitting it hard.

I mean, recon data is recon data and it's clear it's saying otherwise. Remember how Matthew didn't exactly have a stellar satellite presentation either?

[NDG]

Based on the two recons' passes Beryl is still a solid Cat 4

[kevin]

Dropsonde is a bit higher in terms of pressure with 952 mb. The second recon plane just made its pass and measured 139 kt FL winds and 112 kt SFMR. Combining the two passes the 139 kt FL and 125 kt SFMR supports a 125 kt intensity. But I can imagine that NHC might nudge it down to 120 kt based on Beryl's current look and expected weakening trend.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Dropsonde is a bit higher in terms of pressure with 952 mb. The second recon plane just made its pass and measured 139 kt FL winds and 112 kt SFMR. Combining the two passes the 139 kt FL and 125 kt SFMR supports a 125 kt intensity. But I can imagine that NHC might nudge it down to 120 kt based on Beryl's current look and expected weakening trend.

Yeah it's up a few millibars per recon, I expect the winds to go down to Cat 3 status by the afternoon. It's still 120-125 knots per recon, which is remarkable considering the hostile environment it's in.

[kevin]

Raw T# also back to 6.1 as Beryl's IR presentation has been improving over the last 30 - 60 minutes.

[zzzh]

700mb 139kt FL supports a solid 125kt hurricane.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

And NHC continues with 125 knots.

Code: Select all

8:00 AM EDT Wed Jul 3
Location: 16.9°N 75.3°W
Moving: WNW at 20 mph
Min pressure: 952 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph

[jaguars_22]

I’m glad we see beryl weakening! Last night I didn’t expect to see this ugly storm this morning. I hope it weakens to tropical storm strength because I don’t like the looks of the gfs model showing it coming right over my house! I have a feeling it will miss landfall in Brownsville and do exactly what the gfs is showing staying out over water longer… storm is losing right now

[chaser1]

Add to the undercutting lower-level shear, Beryl will begin to get ripped by strong upper-level northerly shear upon it's approach to Yucatan. Unfortunately, Beryl is a mad(woMAN) and seemingly hell-bent on trashing southern Jamaica first. Hopefully it'll remain south of the Island but that may be little solace given the entirety of highest winds to the north of center. It's gonna be a rough day for Jamaica I'm afraid and likely to leave the Island looking quite a bit like the Grenadines now do

[JRD]

Shear close to Jamaica has slightly weakened, a result of Beryl fighting the TUTT. Also, why is there an area of low shear always present to its southwest?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

105-120 kts would be the reasonable range for intensity upon closest approach to Jamaica. And that's still no good at all.

From my amateur POV, Beryl has definitely been on a weakening trend. But it's still too strong for anyone from Jamaica's liking. It's still a mid-tier Category 4. Beryl is such a stubborn system lol

[NDG]

Looking at the models Beryl still has a good 24 hrs of shear near 20 knots before dropping down to near 10 knots before making landfall in the Yucatan P, if it avoids Jamaica's tallest mountains I still say that it has good chance of at least making landfall as a high end Cat 2 if not Cat 3 over the Yucatan P.
The GFS is still very persistent in fairly good UL conditions when it gets to the GOM.

[xironman]

AF says the eye is closed, while NOAA says spiral, which does not appear as a normal code.

[NDG]

Northern eyewall still looks very potent, unfortunately for Jamaica.

[3090]

First recon pass, not yet at the center and 134 kt FL winds & 125 kt SFMR. Looks like Beryl is still 125 kt.

Looks terrible on satellite imagery. Don't think I believe 125 kts. Shear is hitting it hard.

Current shear (west into Beryl) will soon become perpendicular to the path and will have less of an impact. The question is how much longer does the current shear last and the resulting impact (end game) on Beryl?

[Kazmit]

Is NHC's closest point of approach to Jamaica close enough for the eyewall to come ashore?

[ScottNAtlanta]

Just checked vorticity and it still looks stacked. It isn't as of now tilted.