ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nederlander]

Latest gfs is good news! Much weaker!
Looking at the satellite I’m sure it’s probably back up to 970 mb or higher… what you think?

Recon has 953 mb so far

[zzzh]

Dropsonde has 960mb. Winds will be weakening a bit slower than the pressure but it will catch up.

[TomballEd]

Has WxMan57 posted with his thoughts about the final MX/STX landfall location and intensity ideas since the 0Z models w/ G-IV data? In 20 years on weather forums, his is the professional voice I trust in the tropics.

[underthwx]

Has WxMan57 posted with his thoughts about the final MX/STX landfall location and intensity ideas since the 0Z models w/ G-IV data? In 20 years on weather forums, his is the professional voice I trust in the tropics.

Im sure xman is plenty busy providing forecasts for his clients....but fear not....plenty of expertise right here....

[Wthrfan]

I'm just a weather lover with no training and lurk on here mainly in the winter. What I do know is that WxMan57 really wishes this was a Blue Norther bringing some sleet and snow to Houston!

[3090]

Latest gfs is good news! Much weaker!
Looking at the satellite I’m sure it’s probably back up to 970 mb or higher… what you think?

Both the GFS and EURO models have poorly handled the intensity of Beryl. I would be cautious with the Beryl forecast of both the GFS and EURO on Beryl. I would think they both will be better with future systems this season as Beryl has been such an anomalous system from jump.

[Tireman4]

Has WxMan57 posted with his thoughts about the final MX/STX landfall location and intensity ideas since the 0Z models w/ G-IV data? In 20 years on weather forums, his is the professional voice I trust in the tropics.

Im sure xman is plenty busy providing forecasts for his clients....but fear not....plenty of expertise right here....

Wxman 57 ( and the person playing him on TV) are on assignment. They will be back soon to provide their valuable insight and witticisms to our board.

[cheezyWXguy]

Noooo they moved the goes meso sector floater off of Beryl to some showers on the gulf coast.

Edit: Ope, they just brought it back

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Very rapid pressure rise, Beryl's getting the stuffing knocked out of it.

[SouthFloridawx]

Very rapid pressure rise, Beryl's getting the stuffing knocked out of it.

It's not doing too bad actually.
170130 1706N 07641W 6966 02931 9714 +168 +082 313062 063 103 010 00
170200 1706N 07640W 6966 02902 9638 +208 +088 315050 063 105 004 00
170230 1707N 07638W 6957 02875 9616 +195 +096 302043 050 098 002 00
170300 1709N 07637W 6984 02817 9580 +206 +106 318030 035 053 001 00
170330 1710N 07636W 6968 02824 9574 +194 +117 340014 024 045 002 03
170400 1711N 07634W 6966 02820 9568 +193 +126 097007 012 042 000 00
170430 1712N 07633W 6960 02823 9562 +194 +133 138017 021 042 003 03
170500 1712N 07631W 6977 02811 9570 +193 +139 160037 044 053 003 00
170530 1712N 07629W 6969 02840 9581 +201 +143 178052 059 063 000 00
170600 1712N 07627W 6964 02880 9622 +193 +147 184072 081 082 002 00
170630 1712N 07625W 6966 02917 9703 +154 +150 184103 110 090 001 00
170700 1712N 07624W 6980 02941 9750 +146 //// 180111 115 091 003 01
170730 1713N 07622W 6957 02990 9794 +126 //// 175121 123 091 005 01
170800 1713N 07621W 6971 02999 //// +109 //// 172118 121 091 005 01
170830 1713N 07619W 6970 03022 //// +104 //// 170111 116 087 009 01
170900 1713N 07618W 6967 03048 9905 +101 //// 168103 108 080 012 01
170930 1713N 07616W 6961 03072 9950 +086 //// 163098 100 078 017 01
171000 1713N 07615W 6973 03070 //// +080 //// 161095 097 072 016 01
171030 1713N 07613W 6956 03103 0013 +070 //// 158091 093 070 020 01
171100 1713N 07612W 6980 03086 0021 +069 //// 160093 095 067 019 01
171130 1714N 07611W 6967 03114 0022 +079 +071 158089 091 065 011 00
171200 1714N 07609W 6969 03121 0036 +077 +064 159086 089 062 009 00
171230 1714N 07608W 6967 03131 0033 +086 +058 161080 085 061 006 00
171300 1714N 07606W 6969 03132 0053 +078 +054 160079 082 060 008 00
171330 1714N 07605W 6982 03122 0044 +090 +053 163079 080 057 006 00
171400 1714N 07603W 6964 03151 0047 +092 +051 163076 078 055 005 00
171430 1714N 07601W 6967 03152 0052 +095 +050 163072 074 054 005 00
171500 1715N 07600W 6969 03159 0059 +095 +051 162070 072 053 006 00
171530 1715N 07558W 6967 03167 0064 +096 +051 162068 069 052 004 00
171600 1715N 07557W 6967 03171 0070 +097 +052 164067 068 050 007 00
171630 1715N 07555W 6969 03176 0084 +090 +052 166065 067 050 006 00
171700 1715N 07555W 6969 03176 0094 +086 +051 163062 065 049 006 00
171730 1715N 07552W 6968 03185 0103 +081 +051 162060 062 049 007 00
171800 1715N 07550W 6963 03193 0106 +082 +051 159058 060 048 007 00
171830 1715N 07549W 6968 03189 0105 +084 +051 158055 057 048 005 00

[Odeseus]

Anyone else notice a “blob” structure to the east? Reminds me of Matthew in the same general location in 2016.

[tolakram]

[GCANE]

Anyone else notice a “blob” structure to the east? Reminds me of Matthew in the same general location in 2016.

A smaller one is to the south of that.
IMHO its an indication of a feeder band with associated vigorous convection

[tolakram]

[InfernoFlameCat]

https://i.imgur.com/iqREdfj.gif

Looks like it’s trying to wrap around the core agaib

[cheezyWXguy]

https://i.imgur.com/iqREdfj.gif

Looks like it’s trying to wrap around the core agaib

And outflow has actually expanded a bit. Looks a little rounder now. It may not weaken much more if this keeps up

[Odeseus]

Anyone else notice a “blob” structure to the east? Reminds me of Matthew in the same general location in 2016.

A smaller one is to the south of that.
IMHO its an indication of a feeder band with associated vigorous convection

I’m not so sure on that. Feeder band at least try to wrap around. This feature shows no sign of rotating around the core of the hurricane. It is firmly planted almost due east of the center.

It is also almost completely cut off from the rest of the system. And it seems stable. Been a feature for a while. For Matthew, the “blob” existed for a LONG time directly to the east of the system, while also being relatively cut off. That smaller burst to the southeast popped and is fading already. But the “blob” stays.

Finally, the cloud tops in the “blob” are just as intense on IR as the core of the system. I can’t recall another system besides Matthew that had a similar feature. Feeder bands don’t have cloud tops that match or exceed the core. Something else is going on here.

[weatherman2004]

https://i.imgur.com/iqREdfj.gif

Looks like it’s trying to wrap around the core agaib

I agree. Looks like it but not sure.

[Teban54]

Just when we thought Beryl was stripped of almost all convective activity to the south, here we are: -90C towers brute forcing their way through the southern eyewall.

(Note: VDM showed the eyewall was still closed as of an hour ago.)

[chaser1]

Satellite presentation suggests to me a now southeast LLC beginning to decouple from a MLC running ahead and to the NW of said LLC. I would venture to guess we'll see significant filling and a precipitous drop in the surface winds during the coming 4-6 hours