ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Now about 24nm north of forecast track. Was 20nm before.
The GoM ULL has a firm grip on her. Clearly can see the Fuji interaction on WV.

Does this have any effect on the future track and where she will make landfall?

Sure does, also effects intensity forecast

[kevin]

I don’t know how the “Major Hurricane Days” seasonal metric is calculated, but we are getting a good jump on it this year

Beryl has been a hurricane since 1200 UTC on July 30. It's now a little over 1300 UTC on July 4, so Beryl has been a MH for 4 days and 1 hour -> 97 hours now, already close to the average number of MH days of 5.3 days.

[Sciencerocks]

[GCANE]

Now about 24nm north of forecast track. Was 20nm before.
The GoM ULL has a firm grip on her. Clearly can see the Fuji interaction on WV.

Is the ULL just tugging to the north a bit or imparting shear on her as well?

The ULL will somewhat slingshot Beryl around and will also help ventilate Beryl if I am correct with previous similar occurences.

So, the ULL is forecast to impart shear once Beryl is in the GoM. For now it's not.
The ULL will be moving west as Beryl enters the GoM.
If it moves faster than current forecast, then shear wont be so bad.
This is the major factor of what Beryl will do in the GoM.

[tropicwatch]

Doesn't look like shear will be that big of an issue for now.

[cycloneye]

The eye is closed per NOAA VDM.

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022024
A. 04/12:33:02Z
B. 18.84 deg N 081.83 deg W
C. NA
D. 972 mb
E. 150 deg 28 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C25
H. 65 kt
I. 221 deg 9 nm 12:30:58Z
J. 297 deg 67 kt
K. 222 deg 10 nm 12:30:50Z
L. 92 kt
M. 030 deg 10 nm 12:35:30Z
N. 137 deg 107 kt
O. 030 deg 12 nm 12:35:54Z
P. 18 C / 2448 m
Q. 25 C / 2455 m
R. 13 C / NA
S. 12345 / NA
T. 0.01 / 2 nm
U. NOAA3 1902A BERYL OB 21
MAX FL WIND 107 KT 030 / 12 NM 12:35:54Z

[GCANE]

Is the ULL just tugging to the north a bit or imparting shear on her as well?

The ULL will somewhat slingshot Beryl around and will also help ventilate Beryl if I am correct with previous similar occurences.

So, the ULL is forecast to impart shear once Beryl is in the GoM. For now it's not.
The ULL will be moving west as Beryl enters the GoM.
If it moves faster than current forecast, then shear wont be so bad.
This is the major factor of what Beryl will do in the GoM.

So, I just saw and thought about another point.
If the ULL weakens, then the shear will be less on Beryl.
A small convection just fired in the ULL and it brought that to my mind.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1808852818322653395

[ColdMiser123]

 https://x.com/CollinGrossWx/status/1808851324504846790

Critical day for Beryl's track. The 0z Euro at 21z (5 pm EDT) had the center at 18.6N.

Recon will find the center at close to 19.0N with their most recent pass. So for the 0z Euro solution to verify with its short term motion & farther south final landfall point, there has to be a WSW bend in track later this afternoon.

[tropicwatch]

Looking like: 18.967N 82.133W

[Teban54]

Another opinion on why Beryl may take a northward track:
 https://x.com/DCAreaWx/status/1808856483670393090

[LadyBug72]

 https://x.com/CollinGrossWx/status/1808851324504846790

Critical day for Beryl's track. The 0z Euro at 21z (5 pm EDT) had the center at 18.6N.

Recon will find the center at close to 19.0N with their most recent pass. So for the 0z Euro solution to verify with its short term motion & farther south final landfall point, there has to be a WSW bend in track later this afternoon.

Was a WSW bend ever forecasted?

[jaguars_22]

Ladybug, yes on some models it shows a dip in a few hours. We will see if she does that

[LadyBug72]

Ladybug, yes on some models it shows a dip in a few hours. We will see if she does that

Thank you!

[Stormgodess]

Another opinion on why Beryl may take a northward track:
 https://x.com/DCAreaWx/status/1808856483670393090

How bad could this be if by some freak chance Beryl barrels the gap and doesn't cross the peninsula at all?

[jaguars_22]

I don’t think that’s a possibility! She will hit somewhere on the Yucatán… how close to Cozumel is the question… the closer she gets the more north she will come

[jconsor]

Thread on important short-term trends noted regarding Beryl, and how this influences her potential TX/MX impacts.

https://x.com/yconsor/status/1808853711629746332

[3090]

Ladybug, yes on some models it shows a dip in a few hours. We will see if she does that

Thank you!

With the ULL appearing to be currently weakening Beryl may very well end up continuing on its WNW path and crossing the YP minimally across the northern part of the YP. Beryl has certainly kept us all interested during her journey.

[ColdMiser123]

Thread on important short-term trends noted regarding Beryl, and how this influences her potential TX/MX impacts.

https://x.com/yconsor/status/1808853711629746332

Great writeup - lots of fantastic points made in this thread.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

 https://x.com/CollinGrossWx/status/1808851324504846790

Critical day for Beryl's track. The 0z Euro at 21z (5 pm EDT) had the center at 18.6N.

Recon will find the center at close to 19.0N with their most recent pass. So for the 0z Euro solution to verify with its short term motion & farther south final landfall point, there has to be a WSW bend in track later this afternoon.

Was a WSW bend ever forecasted?

IIRC models that had Beryl as a weaker hurricane had her turning more W or with a slight WSW.